Forum Replies Created
- Posts
Two questions form me (great thread by the way – only just spotted it).
1. Do we think there would be an official enquiry like this – if those posting on here (and betfair) hadn’t alerted the authorities?
<br>2. How do we feel about the betfair/sportingoptions agreement to provide details of our betting activities? And of betdaq’s to refuse to play? <br>
DL – in additon to Ray’s comments, I’m guessing your bets are based on the notion they won’t want to risk being up against Jon in the voting.
Certainly time to see if any of them have a brain!
I’m hoping this eviction could be a hot one – three or more up – including Sissy and Fed.<br>
I’m with Katy in thinking BB2 were the best bunch – with Dean and Betty being particualr faves.
Ali, not so sure about Fed and Tania, I’d say those two, and Sissy are the ones Jon could beat head to head.
This girl/boy split’s kinda strange…
Thanks Kifill – that was interesting – not sure what to make of it all though!
The first week’s betting market on evictions is worthy of comment. Anoushka led every poll easily, plus was the only girl up against three blokes and we all know that’s bad news for her.
Yet from Sunday onwards Jon was not just odds-on but backed as though a complete certainty to go – to good money.
My assumption of course was insider dealing – not least based on last year’s evictions – in particular the Adele eviction where the betting seemed to predict the sudden expose of Adele as a scheming little bitch.
Suddenly from nowhere – on about Wednesday morning – comes the suggestion that Jon may actually be so boring as to be worthy of cult status. This, together with the suggestion that Federico’s failure of the task may increase his votes, did leave a few to suggest Anoushka may now be in further danger of eviction. Yet at no time did Jon’s status as certainty change, and indeed Anoushka drifted out to 6s.
So what do we make of this?
My own guess, and it really is a guess, is that the small coterie of Channel 4 insiders who use betfair, believed early on that Anoushka wasn’t quite as obnoxious as she had made herself appear on the first night, and that Jon was a very peculiar chap indeed. And bet accordingly, confident that the editing would bear this out. As it did to begin with.
However, I can only think that they must have failed to sense the changing wind from Wednesday onwards, their strategy went wrong and they lost a bundle.
If this is anywhere near right there could be a couple of useful lessons.
Firstly, they don’t seem to have access to the voting situation, otherwise they would have been able to square their books easily. (Also insider trading from those involved at phone companies etc as has supposedly plagued other reality shows didn’t seem an issue).
Secondly, they don’t seem to have a say in the actual editing of the show. My guess is they’re part of the support team who have to watch all the time, hear all the banter and so are ideally placed to predict the editing.
For me the highlight so far, and probably up there with last year’s shot of Alex behind the door, was of course Jon’s rendition of Hotel California – quite brilliant. And the editor chose to end Thursday’s show with it – re-inforcing Jon’s late charge into cult hero. Now I’d caught a bit of that live and the rest of the group – far from seeing that as remarkably insightful, amusingly dorkish and an undoubted champagne moment, just rolled their eyes and bonded in their mutual sarcasm for the class idiot/swat. I was very taken with the editor’s cut.
Very much interested in other people’s takes on the betting patterns, prior to getting my boots on for week 2.<br>
On the betting front I’d forgotten just how much the C4 insiders seem to like a bet on the eviction markets, prior to some selective editing.
They’ve certainly cleaned up on Jon this time round – the price was forced down to below 1/2 at a time Anoushka was still leading all the polls.
On the personality front – zoz and Kifill – I’d say they’re as much wannabes as last year, just with less to offer.
In fact I feel already as though it’s going to be a bIg Brother too far for me – the show seems to have become even more specifically aimed at the under 25s, and frankly I feel somewhat old – bring back Dean and his sugar cube mountain!
Cameron, of course, is one of those big nice guys who girlies just love to have as their ‘best friend’ (whilst of course he has a forlorn unrequited passion for them, which he makes a desperate pathetic move on one drunken night, thus ending the friendship due to a time-honoured misunderstanding of the nature of friendship – but I digress). So I can see him being around for a bit.
Can’t quite see what Nush’s price is based on though – well obviously I can – but can’t see how that helps you win Big Brother.
Not sure about Federico at all – Ray, Scott, and long-tern Jon, all seem better prospects for winning.
Anoushka’s annoying enough to be gone this week – but I think Sissy may be the really annoying one, plus Tanya.
Be amazed if a boy doesn’t win – 4/6 still available.
I’m beginning to give up hope of Phil being beaten (though he is struggling of late).
Unless Linda can turn it round, I’m stuck!
Thankfully the eviction markets have been kinder. I still think these ‘reality shows’ are some of the best betting opportunities imaginable.
American racing guys say that if racing people are prepared to split hairs endlessly about the tiniest merits of two stand-out horses – don’t get involved in the argument – admit they have equal chances, give a bot to the ‘field’ and back either one if it’s longer than 2/1.
Judging by all the internet talk – this seems to apply to this race – except it’s three horses.
So, for me back any of the three that’s 5/1 or better. Go Rooster.
Heated debate brewing!
I see the RP Weekender has a new article covering betting moves on Betfair.
I have to say I’d love to be able to see the betting details available for a lot longer than currently.
marko,
thanks for that – I went over to betfair and snaffled that price up – and thanks to all the forumites whose votes made it obvious to me that I was wrong to think Lester would win.
Nice one Deany,
I was hoping someone knowledgeable would mark our cards!
I’m on Herschelle Gibbs, but after reading your piece I’ll have a little on Flemming an Anwar as well – nice prices on betfair.
When that Top 10 Britains was going on, I based my final selection on asking myself ‘what would the rest of the world think’? (which led me to Shakespeare, and Darwin).
Ask non-racing folks – Lester Piggot – every time.
I’m on the jockeys’ side for a change here.
I’m amazed that it hasn’t happened before, seeing as I get dizzy just watching it on the telly.
I swear the commentary was something like:
"ho, ho and here we go round and round and round, and its the very slow one leading, the old dogs lie second, third and fourth, those with the squiggles fiddle and flatter, and the one out the back’s looking completely scared, in fact he gets a crack after the second – steady on big fella.
There’s no hanging about, and it’s left hand down, and they’re off on the 9th circuit, only 56 hedges left, and here they come to the bank, they all skid across it OK – oh no the norwegian’s lost his hind legs, ho ho, and look at that, the big fellas dummied the sagebrush and’s heading off to Cleeve Hill…
And here they come down the straight, AP’s poised to challenge, but Ruby’s sitting dizzy, only the hydrangeas to jump….and from the clouds here comes Paula Radcliffe to rub them down in the shadow of the post."
Photograph, photograph.
Colin,
we call the little beauty Atavus – he replaced the Bradbury Star hoover.
You’d need to land a decent trifecta to be able to afford those damned ramekins!
