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  • #3741
    Daylight
    Member
    • Total Posts 369

    It’s the time of year when there’s serious money to be made on what most people consider jokes bets! More fool them!!

    It is in fact for me the time of year where betfair stays open in one of my browser windows while I try & exploit a rick in prices, my only hope is this year BB staff don’t get involved in rigging certain weeks edits to make money again like last year.

    First Impressions?

    <br>Anouska (out soon!) makes me want to sing a Kate Bush song!<br>Cameron (out Soon!) Related to walter Swinburn?<br>Federico (?) 2nd Fav currently<br>Gos (?)<br>Jon (?)<br>Justine (Should stay a while) Biggest Arse I’ve EVER seen!<br>Nush (?)<br>Ray (?) Fav on Betfair<br>Scott (?)<br>Sissy (Out Soon!) Sonia’s sister?<br>Steph (?)<br>Tania (?)

    Had a few early strikes to very small stakes as I don’t know how they intend to do the first nominations:

    1st Eviction = 0.2pts Anouska @ 5.2/1<br>Outright win = 0.3pts Justine @ 25/1

    I think Anuska’s 5.2 will look massive if she’s nominated tonight & Justine will be in for a few weeks I think so the 25/1 won’t last I hope then trade her later down the line as women have it all to do.

    <br>Will know soon!<br>

    #88691
    Daylight
    Member
    • Total Posts 369

    Jon favorite to be evicted:

    Betting 1.08 Jon, 1.42 Anuska, 10 BAR

    Just laid John to lose 1pt @ 1.08

    Usually the loud and in your face get voted out a long time before the quiet ones plus the women have a disadvantage so I personally think the favorites will flip-flop tomorrow!

    Wasn’t planning on starting betting this early on BB4 but a few prices looked out of line so why not!!

    #88692
    tooting
    Member
    • Total Posts 379

    Not sure about Federico at all – Ray, Scott, and long-tern Jon, all seem better prospects for winning.

    Anoushka’s annoying enough to be gone this week – but I think Sissy may be the really annoying one, plus Tanya.

    Be amazed if a boy doesn’t win – 4/6 still available.

    #88693
    Daylight
    Member
    • Total Posts 369

    As always the first few weeks see the annoying gits removed (apart from Alex last year) so with the women usually filling 3 of the first 4 out I’d go for the next 4 evictions to be:

    Anuska (this week)<br>Sissy (2nd Eviction)<br>Fedrico (3rd eviction)<br>Tania or Steph (4th Evcition)

    Then you get to the ‘normal people’ where one wrong word/selective editing will get someone booted off!

    Want to put some money on Scott being the overall winner but I think 7/1 is too skinny with 63 days left! If he hits 9/1 I’ll probably put some money on.<br>

    #88694
    Adrian
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1041

    I’ve taken my first stab in the dark.

    I’ve backed Federico to win at 8.4 – pretty boy that<br>will be popular with girly/gay vote

    I’ve backed Anoushka to be first out – huge backlash on forums and Big Brother live texts.  

    If Anoushka does survive first impressions (possibly at expense of Jon) then she may do a Jade and go a long way.

    #88695
    pixo
    Member
    • Total Posts 32

    I think Gos won’t be leaving in a hurry, who would want to nominate the house cook!

    #88696
    beaker
    Member
    • Total Posts 31

    On first impressions this lot seem better than last years lot (I know that isn’t hard), from the start I thought Ray was the likely winner, however I have to say Nush is looking a very likely winner now too. Jon seems certain to go this week as well Anouska has been revealing her body ever since she knew she was up for eviction. Playing the game very early, I believe she will stay for a few weeks now, if I had to suggest a bet at the moment it would be for Sissy to be the 2nd evictee, she is annoying a good few, especially on the food thing and well I cannot see the public voting for anyone else to be evicted over her (hopefully will get a good price;)). Gos and Cameron will stay a while but neither has a hope of winning, Scott I cant stand him and wish he would go and go soon, but I think he will do well, Justine and Steph will probably go soon, Tania might do well though, but I will be surprised if the winner is anyone other than Ray or Nush.

    Beax

    #88697
    Zoz
    Member
    • Total Posts 703

    First impressions….

    Anoushka – utter slut, won’t be in for long, will complete the Jade cycle by being hated by the press and STAYING hated by the press, if she stays in long enough, which is vastly unlikely as NOBODY can stand her.

    Cam  – seems a nice, unassuming guy, which is GREAT, provided he doesn’t turn into Nasty Nick, and if he stays the same could well go far, could win.

    The rest? The most boring load of selfish wannabes that have ever graced Big Brother.

    #88698
    Kifill
    Participant
    • Total Posts 127

    That seems a little harsh, Zoz.  Last year’s lot were far more annoying and far more desperate wannabees than this year’s.  

    It is not making as good TV, though.  Yet…

    #88699
    tooting
    Member
    • Total Posts 379

    On the betting front I’d forgotten just how much the C4 insiders seem to like a bet on the eviction markets, prior to some selective editing.

    They’ve certainly cleaned up on Jon this time round – the price was forced down to below 1/2 at a time Anoushka was still leading all the polls.

    On the personality front – zoz and Kifill – I’d say they’re  as much wannabes as last year, just with less to offer.

    In fact I feel already as though it’s going to be a bIg Brother too far for me – the show seems to have become even more specifically aimed at the under 25s, and frankly I feel somewhat old – bring back Dean and his sugar cube mountain!

    Cameron, of course, is one of those big nice guys who girlies just love to have as their ‘best friend’ (whilst of course he has a forlorn unrequited passion for them, which he makes a desperate pathetic move on one drunken night, thus ending the friendship due to a  time-honoured misunderstanding of the nature of friendship – but I digress).  So I can see him being around for a bit.

    Can’t quite see what Nush’s price is based on though – well obviously I can – but can’t see how that helps you win Big Brother.

    #88700
    Big Mac
    Member
    • Total Posts 1

    After cocking-up the weekly task, F(r)ederico has been reduced to 10/1 for the 1st evictee from 40’s this morning.

    They mentioned on BBLB last night that they continuouly peddled for the 72 hours and failed because Fed left the pedalo for 4 seconds! <br>How much would that cheese you off if you were in the house? I think if I were in there, I would be the 1st contestant to be done for GBH.

    I think there is a definite undercurrent of sexual tension in this years show and I think that was the main aim for the people who chose the contestants. <br>I’m pretty sure that it will be a bit of a slow burner for the next week and then a few more boozy nights will heat things up nicely.

    So own up, who would be tempted by the £50,000 to play a game of hide the sausage in the house?<br>I usually have to pay £50 a time so it would be nice to be on the receiving end (if you know what I mean!) :biggrin:

    <br>

    #88701
    Kifill
    Participant
    • Total Posts 127

    Interesting site here for any fellow Mordin-disciples who’d like to analyse past nominations and evictions in weird statistical manners:

    http://www.igblan.com/bb/diagrams/

    #88702
    tooting
    Member
    • Total Posts 379

    Thanks Kifill – that was interesting – not sure what to make of it all though!

    The first week’s betting market on evictions is worthy of comment. Anoushka led every poll easily, plus was the only girl up against three blokes and we all know that’s bad news for her.

    Yet from Sunday onwards Jon was not just odds-on but backed as though a complete certainty to go – to good money.

    My assumption of course was insider dealing – not least based on last year’s evictions – in particular the Adele eviction where the betting seemed to predict the sudden expose of Adele as a scheming little bitch.

    Suddenly from nowhere – on about Wednesday morning – comes the suggestion that Jon may actually be so boring as to be worthy of cult status.  This, together with the suggestion that Federico’s failure of the task may increase his votes, did leave a few to suggest Anoushka may now be in further danger of eviction. Yet at no time did Jon’s status as certainty change, and indeed Anoushka drifted out to 6s.

    So what do we make of this?

    My own guess, and it really is a guess, is that the small coterie of Channel 4 insiders who use betfair, believed early on that Anoushka wasn’t quite as obnoxious as she had made herself appear on the first night, and that Jon was a very peculiar chap indeed. And bet accordingly, confident that the editing would bear this out. As it did to begin with.

    However, I can only think that they must have failed to sense the changing wind from Wednesday onwards, their strategy went wrong and they lost a bundle.

    If this is anywhere near right there could be a couple of useful lessons.

    Firstly, they don’t seem to have access to the voting situation, otherwise they would have been able to square their books easily. (Also insider trading from those involved at phone companies etc as has supposedly plagued other reality shows didn’t seem an issue).

    Secondly, they don’t seem to have a say in the actual editing of the show. My guess is they’re part of the support team who have to watch all the time, hear all the banter and so are ideally placed to predict the editing.

    For me the highlight so far, and probably up there with last year’s shot of Alex behind the door, was of course Jon’s rendition of Hotel California – quite brilliant. And the editor chose to end Thursday’s show with it – re-inforcing Jon’s late charge into cult hero.  Now I’d caught a bit of that live and the rest of the group – far from seeing that as remarkably insightful, amusingly dorkish and an undoubted champagne moment, just rolled their eyes and bonded in their mutual sarcasm for the class idiot/swat. I was very taken with the editor’s cut.

    Very much interested in other people’s takes on the betting patterns, prior to getting my boots on for week 2.<br>          

    #88703
    Daylight
    Member
    • Total Posts 369

    Good first week for me :biggrin:<br>1.5 pts staked<br>3.18 pts returned<br>0.3 pt still running on Christine @ 25/1

    Still think Scott will go all the way but cannot get the right price yet.

    Tooting,<br>I felt Jon was in for it as the edits during the week were clearly trying to get Jon out after Annouska’s initial night antics but failed to take into account the voting public being young females always looking to get the annoying bird out.

    Jon will be nominated for sure this week but if it’s against Sissy he should stay but if it’s against Fedrico he’ll go, so I might get involved tonight before nominations on those 2 but I have yet to see the market so I’ll post if I get involved anymore.<br>

    #88704
    beaker
    Member
    • Total Posts 31

    Ok call me mad everyone, but I think JON might just win this, he is getting a very very big following, and I believe the public love him, I agree he will be up for eviction this week, and in fact possibly every week, but everyday he is the one people are discussing he is the focus of the TV highlights and well he is the most genuine character in the house. Federico is very very annoying and even the schoolgirls votes cannot save him from eviction shortly. JON TO WIN :)

    Beax

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