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I hear they are thinking of switching Liss A P to the Champion rather than take on Baracouda in the Stayers, as they feel they are more likely to beat Istabraq, Ned Kelly and co.
I would back Bannow Bay in an ordinary year, but 5/1 is not big enough for me for him to take on Baracouda, whereas evens is plenty big enough for me for Baracouda to take on the rest.
The Boss Doyle form lines are meaningless as the Kempton race was just an excercise for Baracouda to keep on the ball. The point was not to see how far he could win by.
I’m afraid even Bannow Bay will not prove up to it and the rest have got no chance at all.
Hi Escorial, an interesting point of which I was aware.
I agree Aidan.
By the way I wouldn’t get too excited about Deano’s Beeno. They are actually trying to sell part (or parts) of him as I reported on the other forum, according to the Classifieds in the Post.
This is obviously not a good sign, it never is. I would question the likelihood of him even getting to post.<br>
I thought it was a very professional victory. It looked to me liked they wanted to give him something to do and I wouldn’t get too excited by the proximity of the others (although I agree it is good to see the runner-up return to form).
He has actually hardened with the bookmakers, rather than relaxed (I think that only Chandler is now the only one still going evens).
However, the on course bookmakers will not have taken very much for him yet and he may be odds against on the day. This should not be taken as anything necessarily being wrong with him, but will be the first opportunity that many have had to take anything on him.
Unless you had taken a price around the time when I put up that Baracouda takes centre stage thread last year you will not have had much of a chance to get on. I would leave it now until the day.
Although I am on at bigger prices I will have no hesitation in taking evens on the day. I can’t honestly see anything getting near him.
The race at Kempton was a muddling pace and he ran it contrary to his strengths and still won quite easily. He cut them down very quickly when asked to do so and was steadied in front doing no more than holding them. There is plenty more to come.
Only Istabraq has recorded one higher rating (once) in recent years than the 176 rating for Baracouda. There is a 6-10lb gap to the next best in training at the moment.
Cheltenham will suit him down to the ground. Unlike Istabraq he is at the top of his form and doesn’t have to beat Istabraq anyway. Home and hosed.
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Legal Right is by no means consistent, so the form book is not of much use with him.
However, on his day he has unsusual ability which is why I say I would give him a squeak. He won’t be carrying any of my money, but if he runs his best race he will be thereabouts. More likely that he won’t be though.
LLT has the best credentials if you discount a tendon injury that has a high chance of not standing up to a race like the Gold Cup.
It should be out of Marlborough and Behrajan and I’ll give half a squeak to Legal Right. Best Mate’s not good enough to win but may finish about fourth or fifth. Alexander B is better the softer it is and has some sort of chance. Bacchanal may well not complete – as we have said he jumps to the right and very low at some, he is asking to come a cropper at Cheltenham.
I’ll give a tentative:
1) Marlborough<br>2) Behrajan<br>3) Legal Right<br>4) Alexander Banquet<br>5) Best Mate<br>etc.<br>Bacchanal fell<br>LLT p/u
We’ll soon find out for sure.<br>
I’ve always liked Bacchanal a lot, but I agree with the opening contributor that Cheltenham won’t suit him one bit. I don’t think he will win the Gold Cup and would expect Marlborough to reverse placings with him.
Whether that will be quite good enough I don’t know, but I still think Marlborough has the best chance of winning. I would give him the edge over Behrajan and Alexander Banquet and would expect him to beat Best Mate. That leaves LLT who is difficult to weigh up, but I don’t want to bet on his tendon injury standing up to the Gold Cup.
So it’s still Marlborough for me. I backed him at 16/1 and have backed him again at 12/1 following the race. He is only 8/1 with Corals.<br>
Hi Luke,
I was rather under that impression as well. He didn’t defend in 1988 as he was pulled up in the Kingwell Hurdle prior to the Champion and retired (when 8)
But John Randall/Tony Morris’s book states he finished last behind Kribensis in 1990 (he would have been 10 by then as he won at 5-7). So I assumed he must have come back into training for another crack.
I must admit I don’t remember him running in 1990 and have been unable to get a copy of the full result to check. I do remember Kribensis winning however, as as usual I was there and am sure I would have had some memory of SYT trailing in last. So I am inclined to believe you are probably right.
I’m afraid that the people who say that stats don’t matter are burying their heads in the sand. But I am always open to whether a statistic is significant or not. I would suggest this one is.
Four horses of tremendous calibre failed to achieve a fourth win.
Hatton’s Grace finished fifth when attempting a fourth win, Sir Ken fourth when attempting to do the same. Persian War (who has the best record) made second place and See You Then came last.
As many point out this in effect is Istabraq’s fifth go, as he was cheated out of it last year when he appeared to have a fairly straightforward task.
The thing is, is that he is facing this year possibly the strongest field he has come up against at the very time he is least equipped to deal with it. It will be a monumental achievement if he manages it. We should not expect it of the horse, however, and he is certainly a false favourite. The only thing tired about this is apparently the horse itself.
The one thing he has going for him is Aidan O’Brien who managed to galvinise scintillating performances out of Theatreworld when apparently out of form. Let us hope he can do something similar for Istabraq – but the odds are stacked against it.
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I disagree that it is a tired debate. If there is a false favourite for any race surely it is worth grasping that and making a sensible betting strategy accordingly.
If you just want to watch the race and hope he wins good luck to you.
I for one have backed Landing Light and may back another on the day, but for sure I’ll be cheering Istabraq on.<br>
There is merit in what you say jjumps.
Using figures from the Racing Post web site as my own stats are not to hand (stored at home).
37 5-y-o runners since 1990 have produced zero winners, 45 6-y-o runners five winners 49 7-y-o runners three winners, 25 8-y-o runners two winners, 20 9-y-o runners one winner and five 10-y-o runners zero winners.
10-y-os aside for the moment you can see a falling off from as early as six, i.e. more 7-y-os have actually run than 6-y-os but a higher number of 6-y-os have won.
Also you have the additional reason that if 10-y-os are allowed to take part why do so few run? This in itself is significant.
The impact values for this period (curtesy of the Post) for 5 to 10-y-os are: zero, 1.83, 1.01, 1.32, 0.83, and zero respectively.
So a definte picture begins to emerge.<br>
If he is back to his very best I agree he should win. But it is asking too much to get him back at this age. We ought to be backing against him.
I agree a 5-y-o mare should be priced up very big in this race and would not give a chance to Bilboa. But all you can do is win and Landing Light won well, yet is still underrated by many.
The 5-y-o with the best credentials is Jair Du Cochet, but I wouldn’t give him much of a chance even if he does line up.
As I say six- and seven-year-olds do best (more than 40 have won the race) and eight 6 or 7-y-os have won since 1990, as opposed to one 9-y-o and zero 10 or 11-y-os.
Usually one of the first three or four in the betting win this and it is highly predictable compared with the Gold Cup.
It’s looking to me like a two horse race unless Ned Kelly can leave his bursting problems to one side.
With regard to Marlborough an operation on a trapped epiglottis is of no real consequence and has not affected his well being.
Istabraq on the other hand is looking quite threadbare to me (you wouldn’t want to say the horse is thriving would you?), which is the way of it for many horses of his age.<br>
I sincerely hope you are right. But he would be flying in the face of a host of given no-no’s to succeed this year. It is looking a mountain he has to climb and he should not be favourite in my opinion.
I take your point – I mean they were capable of performing at top-level at this age since they are from late-maturing families. Not that Istabraq isn’t, but he is showing distinct signs of wear and tear, whereas they both were never better at this age, Whereas Istabraq hasn’t bettered his performance in the Champion two years ago.
He has not been put under undue pressure in these races and has run well below what is required for a Champion Hurdle. However, he will be put under pressure in the Champion.
It is also worth pointing out that only two 10-y-os have ever won this race in its 75-year history Hatton’s Grace and Sea Pigeon. They both won the race at eleven also and are the only horses of this age to do so. These two apart from being brilliant were late-maturing.
Istabraq has won it in his prime years 6, 7 and 8. It is asking too much for him to do it now, especially in view of his problems and especially as this is probably his toughest assignment anyway.
