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Dario,
When Marlborough edged out Go Ballistic at Sandown he was so badly lame after pulling up that connections thought he had broken down badly. Luckily he had just spread a plate between the last two fences. To overcome that and ground softer than he would have liked to beat a pretty useful horse was a good effort and showed Marlborough to be a a pretty gutsy type.
There is NO way Cheltenham fences form counts for very little.
It is not 100% vital but it is a definate bonus and not to be ignored.
First of all ridden up front over 3miles I wouldnt be afraid of LLT if I was Willie Mullins…………..3m2f up Cheltenham is different.But all the same he was only beaten 5 lenghts(although with 2f left FP had the race won) by LLT so 33/1 e/w still very happy with it.But LLT is a worthy favourite.<br> Point on Bacchanal……………I know Henderson says he wants soft ground but I personally believe he jumps much better out of good ground.Indeed his best run over hurdles was on good ground in the stayers………………..I wouldnt rule him out on good ground.
I think there has been too much hype about Bacchanal’s performance last Saturday.  The bare form is that he beat Shotgun Willy by 12L, who was according to Paul Nicholls having "his first run of the season really".  On Willy’s actual first run of the season he was beaten 19L by Sackville (might have been closer but for being hampered by Lord Noelie falling).  This would indicate there isn’t very much between Bacchanal and Sacvkville (forgetting about the latter’s run last Sunday which was too bad to be true).  If Sackville turns up in peak condition at Cheltenham, on ground no worse than soft, he will have as good a chance as Bacchanal.  The only difference is one will start about 6/1, the other at about 16/1.  I know who I’d want to be on then!:biggrin:
There is another horse in the race with a 100% record at Cheltenham.
3 runs (all in Gde A chases over 3m+) and 3 wins (by dist, dist & 5l).
<br>
Bacchanal is apparently going to be examined by Yogi Breisner. He said, "It has been discussed in the press but I wouldn’t entirely look upon it as a problem. Normally Bacchanal has jumped straight and certainly when he has schooled at home he has been straight. It wasn’t as ifhe was jumping badly right at every single fence, and he jumped well all the way up the home straight."
Personally, i think it is a problem, losing ground when jumping right. I think he’s always had a few jumping problems but he will surely improve.<br>
elderberry
 the excuse after the  charlie hall was the ground  in the aon  sw had his ground and lost  the form is not comparable  (being run on different ground) but now nicholls has found another excuse for  a defeat of his horse which never looked like winning and yet didnt set a fast enough pace to benifit bacchanal
sw has also gone well fresh in the past he won first time out last year and the year before if i recall so the excuse about first run since the ch dosnt add up to me.<br>also sw best runs in his career have been at newbury in the hennessy meeting and in last years aon chase so with ground and track i would say sw has put in a better performence that in the ch<br>
 bacchanal needs to improve his jumping but i feel with the extra training and a stronger pace he will
(Edited by prince regent at 1:39 pm on Feb. 13, 2002)
LLT has the best credentials if you discount a tendon injury that has a high chance of not standing up to a race like the Gold Cup.
It should be out of Marlborough and Behrajan and I’ll give half a squeak to Legal Right. Best Mate’s not good enough to win but may finish about fourth or fifth. Alexander B is better the softer it is and has some sort of chance. Bacchanal may well not complete – as we have said he jumps to the right and very low at some, he is asking to come a cropper at Cheltenham.
I’ll give a tentative:
1) Marlborough<br>2) Behrajan<br>3) Legal Right<br>4) Alexander Banquet<br>5) Best Mate<br>etc.<br>Bacchanal fell<br>LLT p/u
We’ll soon find out for sure.<br>
How can you put Legal Right in third -he was out on his feet at Aintree last April.Much as I would love to see him do well mid division is the best he can hope for.
Anyone who backs Bacchanal for the Gold Cup is in effect saying that the race can be won by a horse who is not a natural steeplechaser. I don’t believe that it can. Gloria Victis was a much more fluent jumper than Bacchanal but he shared Bacchanal’s tendency to jump out to the right and the cumulative effect of this was clear to see in the 2000 Gold Cup. Gloria Victis lost a little ground at every fence and was clearly getting the worst of the argument when he fell – fatally – at the second last. The form of Bacchanal’s Newbury race isn’t that special either – Supreme Glory, rated 142, finished much too close over a trip far too short for him.
As for Looks Like Trouble, he’s ten years of age and coming back from a very serious injury. I love the horse – I backed him at 25/1 two years ago and had already backed him at 10/1 for last year’s Gold Cup before he was injured – but is he really likely to be capable of turning in the same level of performance as in 2000? The odds have to be against it.
You might be right, Esc, although I think it’s very hard to measure exactly what Looks Like Trouble achieved at Wincanton whether you look at it in form terms or time terms or both. It’s just a gut feeling I suppose. I’d rather back an up and coming horse for the Gold Cup than one who’s upped and come if you’ll pardon the expression. I know a lot of people on this forum disagree but Best Mate fits the bill for me.
gus,
he managed to win the stayers while not being a natural hurdler..his raw ability got him home that day and if it comes to it then it will again
<br>im with esc on this one nearly all past winners of the gc have one thing in common they have won at 3m there must be a reason for this.
best mate neither runs like he wants 3m2f and to make matters worse for him he is certainly not bred to go 3m yet alone 3m2f
gus
u will see better jumping from bacchanal in the gc especially when he jumps the last and in with a chance
The one big thing in Looks Like Trouble’s favour is that he’s trained by Noel Chance. He is certainly one of the very best when it comes to training a good one. Look what he did with Mr Mulligan. He got that horse absolutely spot on for Cheltenham. That horse raced twice in his GC year and was trained to the minute for the GC.
LLT was liad out for the GC in 2000 as well and we know he is in 2002.
The form of his GC win is questionable though but if he is sound (if…the most overused word in racing) through the race, he ought to run well.
Hard GC to predict at this stage and i’m waiting for the Racing Post Chase to roll by…
Regarding Legal Right I think the pinnacle of his career will prove to be winning last years Gold Cup, the one the Racing Post ran on a computer. <br>Shows what computers know.
I read in the Times today that Henderson reported that Baccanhanl finished "very lame" and "very sore" at Newbury.But he should be ok for Cheltenham.This puts a different slant on his performance then……………..Marlbouragh might get fitter but after hearing that I doubt he’ll reverse form with Bac now.Why should he?
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