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I agree that HW is not as good at 12f as HC (certainly on soft), but is no doubt better than HC at his correct trip on a firmer surface.
There cannot be much much doubt that HW is better than ROG at any distance, as despite losing to ROG he was rated higher than ROG on his Guineas performance by Postmark, Timeform and officially (as because of the abnormalities of the race it was rated as two races).
In absolute terms they are rated very similarly. These are Postmark ratings for all of the relevent races:
Hawk Wing 127+ (Eclipse), 126 (Derby), 125 (Guineas).
High Chaperral 129 (Derby), 126 (Irish Derby).
Rock Of Gibraltar 126 (St James’s Palace), 116 (Irish Guineas, 123 (Guineas).
So you see Hawk Wing outperforms ROG on ROG’s best performance (despite losing narrowly to him) and is second in absolute terms only to HC’s Epsom Derby performance.
Given the expected improvement for HW when he has his conditions he is clearly the one who is likely to finish top of these three by the end of the season.
Any takers?
Yes AC Gunner B did turn out to be a top performer from humble beginnings.<br>
Yes the previous rating was Postmark which comes out a day before the Official Rating.
All of those ratings mentioned by me (including those for HC and ROG) are Postmark ratings.
The Official rating of 122+ for the Eclipse (123 overall) was in today’s paper. I was not privy to that yesterday.
Postmark ratings are invariably a few pounds higher than the official rating because of the way they are arrived at, but are consistent with themselves.
If you are asking me have we seen the best of Hawk Wing I would say no. But if you are asking me on what he has already achieved is he the horse that we were anticipating I would have to say yes. He is a dual Group 1 winner and runner up in two Classics and has a rating as good or better than any horse let alone another 3-y-o seen this season.
With the very real prospect of further improvement I would be affirmative in that we have a real superstar on our hands.
It is the mark of a great horse that it can achieve so well with conditions against it. When he has his correct conditions he will dazzle.
The very point of this is that the likes of Imperial Dancer and Halling are exceptions rather than the rule. The fact is that Imperial Dancer is a horse capable of running to 116, which all things being equal entitles him to add a Group race to his Listed success and makes him something very much more than just a handicapper.
The horse he beat in that Listed event Island House has since won and runs in a Group 2 today at Newmarket.<br>
I’m using Halling as the best example of a horse I can think of that was branded a handicapper before excelling in Group company. Nevertheless, the comparison doesn’t seem a bad one if you are objective about it. Imperial Dancer is clearly this type of horse. Horses that win handicaps off high/top weights are invariably not just handicappers and to brand them such is failure of recognising ability.
Imperial Dancer had recorded a best rating of 106 in handicap company, when winning at Kempton in a field of 18. Halling’s best Handicap mark was 105 at Newmarket in a field of 30. On stepping up to Pattern class at Goodwood Imperial Dancer recorded a rating of 116 in beating Island House in a Listed race, while Halling recorded 120 in the Eclipse (a mark a good half a stone short of Hawk Wing’s 127+). If Halling had performed to that level yesterday, he would have beaten Imperial Dancer by much less than Hawk Wing managed, proving that Imperial Dancer was certainly entitled to line up in Saturday’s race.
If Imperial Dancer does not prove ultimately as good as Halling, he is certainly a horse of the same ilk that is being branded (like Halling) as just a handicapper (by some), when he is clearly much better than that. Imperial Dancer (like Halling) has in fact only run in three handicaps from 29 races. So to call him a handicapper is very far from the reality of it. What he is, is a horse good enough to run to 116 and 120 was good enough to win Halling his first Group 1.
You are arguing against yourself anyway as Hawk Wing has proved he can run to 127+ on going least effective on, which is better than 99.9% of horse can achieve under ideal conditions.
Hawk Wing will be capable of running to ratings in the mid-130s, which is likely to prove superior to any horse seen this season and establish him as one of the all-time greats.
Such ratings are likely to prove well beyond the scope of the similarly rated Rock Of Gibraltar (best rating 126) and High Chaparral (best rating 129), good as both are.
In other words Hawk Wing is already rated above ROG and has much more scope for improvement.<br>
Beaker, far from the Eclipse form not being good, it is in fact virtually watertight. He has beaten the runner up of the Irish Derby and a hitherto unbeaten Group 3 winner in Equerry by five legths. The other two are very highly rated horses also. Indian Creek filling the runner-up spot behind Grandera recently.
Not sure what the 1,000 Guineas has to do with anything, but in the colts’ Classic he was rated five pound better than the colt that beat him.<br>
For any 3-y-o to beat any older horse by 8½ lengths at this stage of the season is impressive, particularly so one as good as Imperial Dancer (who has already run to 116).
As this was a Group 1 the weight concession was purely his weight-for-age allowance that all of his age group get and therefore not a factor in the discussion.
Four and five year olds are physically superior to 3-y-o and would of course virtually alway beat them off level weights.
You should also never confuse running in a handicap with an inferior sort of horse.
Halling started out in handicap company before running in Group races with conspicuous success.
I am very impressed with Hawk Wing’s performance, especially given the circumstances.
He is already rated at 127+ (a pound above the Irish Derby winner) and many believe he is capable of better still, which makes him a colt of very high order indeed.
The difficulty that 3-y-os have in beating Group performing older horses at this stage of the season should not be underestimated, and although there is more to come from Hawk Wing this was very much more than a Group 3 performance.
Post Mark has been given a rating of 127+ for Saturday’s performance and they say he has shown enough this season to suggest he is capable of 130+.
This compares with High Chapparal’s 126+ for the Irish Derby.
I expect HW to be capable of better still on a firmer surface at 8-9 furlongs.
The most interesting part of all of this is that AOB now claims the Derby did effect his performance on Saturday.
"He hasn’t had conditions to his liking this season and you’d have to say that running in the Derby on softish ground probably had its effect". My impression after the race was that the Derby had had a marginal effect (albeit less so than I expected prior to the race).
The upshot of all this is that AOB is claiming there is plenty more to come… but then he would do wouldn’t he? I happen to believe the same, and that would also appear to be backed up by the raters of the race.
The fact that he has now won two Group 1s (the first rather more impressively than the second) and has been runner-up in two Classics cannot be gainsaid. This is a horse of very high ability and one that will surely to go on to prove himself the outstanding colt of this season.
Latest quote from AOB:
"Hawk Wing was led out for a walk this morning and seems to have taken his race well.
"The run at Epsom in soft ground and again yesterday when it was testing enough might have flattened him a bit so we will see how he is in a week or two.
"It would be wrong to rule him out of the King George at this stage though I think it would be more likely that he would wait for the International at York.
"I don’t think dropping him back or going forward in trip would be a problem once he gets the fast ground he needs."
Fair enough Escorial. Morris seems to have the same hunch (although I get with him it’s just something to say). He calls HW a typical Woodman in today’s paper, although he said he was not a typical Woodman two weeks ago.
I on the other hand have seen no evidence whatsoever that HW ducks a fight, as I am sure he will prove when returned to 8-10 furlongs.
It was simply his class that got him there in the Derby. As Willoughby said yesterday, the horse had clearly reached his limits a clear two furlongs out and was never going to get by HC who had everything in his favour in relation to going and trip.
I just hope his spirit hasn’t been broken by being asked to do the impossible.
So I think Willoughby and I are right and you and Morris wrong (on this occasion).<br>
(Edited by Steve M at 7:27 pm on June 11, 2002)
It was another poor decision by the yard to run Johannesburg at 10f in the KYD. He will be much better suited by the 6½f in the July Cup.
Songsheet raised this question on the other forum a couple of days ago in the thread Is he soft?
It is well known that Woodman’s can be riddled with problems, whether this is the same as being "soft" is a moot point. Soft is often used as an umbrella term when something more specific stops them. With Bosra Sham it was her hooves, with other Woodman’s it can be their breathing, hence the head going up.
Woodman was only a Group 3 winner himself in Ireland but a brilliant albeit erratic sire. But this is much to do with the scattergun approach they have taken with him.
But in truth the whole breed is riddled with such weaknesses and it is the one with the most talent that is also free of specific ailments to stop them on the day that triumph.
The quote from Morris is well rehearsed. He is now looking for a convenient horse to hang on that. He has chosen Hawk Wing, but he is very far from the prime example. Bosra Sham and a host of other Woodman’s are much better examples.
Hawk Wing was not beaten because he throws in the towel he was beaten because he was running at the wrong trip, on the wrong going, on the wrong course.
Willoughby says in yesterday’s Post:
"horses have to go through the pain barrier to subdue talented opposition. It hurts them all the more when like Hawk Wing in the Derby, they are just not up to the job".
Willoughby fears they may have ruined the horse. I hope as much as his connections no doubt do that he is not right.<br>
Dosage identified the first, third, fourth and fifth as those most likely to suceed at 12f.
The formbook identified Hawk Wing, Bandari and High Chaparral as the three best.
So on balance I’d say Dosage has it as far as the Derby is concerned. The Dosage identified the winner, whereas the formbook gave the runner up.
The Dosage is an essential factor in fact. It told us that horses like Daylami and Petruska would IMPROVE for 12 furlongs, when some experts had them dowm for milers and sub milers respectively.
Petrushka’s dam only managed to win at sprint distances and yet Petruska won a couple of Group 1s at 12f, as we predicted before she had run as a 3-y-o.<br>
Everything was against Hawk Wing when they met at 2 and ROG was more precocious anyway.
The Guineas was rated as two races by the handicapper and HW came out about five pounds superior, a mark that Post Mark claimed to be conservative.
Slavishly following the form book would make the likes of Secreto better than El Gran Senor and Shahrastani better than Dancing Brave.<br>
(Edited by Steve M at 5:50 pm on June 6, 2002)
Well done in backing him. Right result but second best horse.
ROG has similar headline figures to HW slanted slightly more toward that of a miler.
DP = 7-5-17-0-1 (30) DI = 2.16 CD = +0.57<br>
Yikes!! 12/1. That looks worth chucking away a few quid on now RM. 10f on a fast dirt track there’s only one winner.
I agree High Chaparral is the right horse in almost every respect. I just have a nagging doubt that he is as well balanced as everyone including the pundits on C4 are making out. He changes his legs too often for my liking and I wonder how he will be at Epsom?
I’m coming right round to Fight Your Corner now and think he has the edge, although in truth most of this analysis is out the window now that there is about 12 inches of rain on the course. Any one of about eight might win it now.
Dosage for the Guineas pointed to Hawk Wing as being a natural 9 furlong + horse, which is just the type I like for the race. Right decision, wrong result.
Surely Hawk Wing won’t line up now and Kinane will switch to HC. I look forward to seeing Hawk Wing run in a proper 10f race on good ground.<br>
