Forum Replies Created
- Posts
Wednesday 15th of April.
Just the one selection, I won’t go into detail as race has been discussed in detail.
Lady Correspondent 1 pt win at 5/1.
Was tempted to put up Home of the Brave as I really like this horse and it’s one my list of horses to follow from last season. However, it may be more of a sprinter long term and the Gosden colt looks potentially very good.
Cheers Steve.
Definite weakness of mine is not shopping around. I have a couple of accounts, one with B365 and the other on exchanges.
I never shop around on price,mainly cos I get so annoyed if I miss the bigger SP and best odds guaranteed with b365 means they get vast majority of my business.
Though not relevant from ante post perspective, but I have gone in on the 20s which is annoying now I know much bigger prices around! Oh well, my own fault, it tells me I need another account option!
Hopefully she does the business on Wednesday. Godolphin horse demands respect, always happy to take them to be honest. Terror is the one who keeps catching my eye as a big danger, the 4th behind Tiggy Wiggy was quite a good performance for an inexperienced horse and I thought Hughes turned that into a sharp sprint off slowish fractions for 6f,the step up in trip should suit her.
Osaila sets good standard, but is beatable. Marsh Hawk looks like it needs soft ground and think she was flattered on couple of occasions last season. Trip looks perfect for Mubtaaqa , but just don’t think she will be quite good enough and does not travel as well as some of these. New Provenance is interesting, I just wonder if 6f is more up her street long term.
I’m finding myself more and more confident for Wednesday
I’m quite tempted to have a few quid on Lady Correspondent before the Nell Gwynn on Wednesday. I thought she was hugely impressive in her maiden last year and showed a smart turn of foot. The form of that race is not great, the 2nd went on to win a maiden, whilst the rest of the field have done very little.
I’m really looking forward to Wednesday’s race, she likely has to win this to stand a chance of heading to the Guineas. It’s quite a good looking race with likes of Osaila, Beautiful Romance and dark horse Terror to name a few.
I would expect a half decent pace here with likes of Marsh Hawk, Mubtaaqa and the good turn of foot Lady Correspondent shower in her maiden was from off a slow pace that day. I think the 20/1 on offer now could look a tasty price on Wednesday evening.
Think your probably right ref Withernsea Steve. However, I do think a pattern is emerging with this horse and I think he is going to prove very expensive to follow. I just wonder if we are seeing another Docofthebay / Dhular Dhar type horse here. One that always looks a little unlucky and will win some races for sure, but starts much shorter than it should and does not win the races it should.
Hanagan is another worthy discussion point though. When I think of Hanagan , I think of a good but not brilliant jockey. What I believe makes him good is in the past he keeps things simple and tends to ride the same race, ie he sits just off the pace tracking the leaders.
Now from a very small sample so far this season, I get the impression he is sitting more off the pace in races. I don’t really have any stats to back this up, it’s just an observation I seem to have from watching the start of the flat this season. I will be keeping an eye on this in coming weeks. If their is anything in this, I can only presume it is his own decision. Maybe he is looking to improve and become a more rounded top level jockey. I struggle to believe it would come from Sheik Hamdam camp, as always believed he like his horses sat tracking the pace ,which makes Hanagan a perfect retainer jockey for him.
This maybe complete nonsense from me,but I think it’s worth keeping an eye on over a larger sample of rides in coming weeks/months.
I don’t want to crab the horse, but I just don’t think it has ever been that special. I appreciate this thread is talking about the soundness of the horse long term and that applies to every horse, but the fact the focus is on this horse in this context implies that it is a special horse in the realms of Kauto Star.
Last season it performed to a very good leve but beat little imo. Personally, I would say the same about the winner of this years Queen Mother too. Both horses have won poor renewals with no depth in the race.
Personally, I would not back Sire De Grugy against Dodging Bullets in any race in the future. I think bullets is the better horse of the two, history will show these last two years to be of below standard in Grade 1 two mile chasers imo. Un De Sceaux will beat them comfortably, as would the vast majority of top echelon Grade 1 two milers in the last 20 years from the likes of Moscow Flyer, Azertyiuop, Flagship Uberalles, Viking Flagship etc etc etc……imo
Update – one winner today with Trip to Paris u der a cute ride by Atzeni. First selection My Name Is RIo ran decent enough, may have needed the run but was very well backed and be worth following this season.
Thread stands at + £258
They smashed into a Godolphin horse today in 3.50 at Leicester called Ocenographer. I had this as a 7/1 in my book, it opened 9/4 last night and got down to 4/7 at one point in a decent looking handicap. Think it beat one home.
I think early part of the season may see a massive overreaction to Godolphin stable runners based on the winter Aw form of Appleby.
Admittedly, your selection is on Aw though
Saturday 11th of April
Two selections tomorrow.
2.45 Newcastle – My Name Is Rio 1pt win at 7/1
Looks a progressive and lightly raced sprinter who should improve further this season. Trip and ground seem fine and expect it to be bang there tomorrow. If the ground has genuine cut, then may have an Ew saver on Barkston Ash who tuned in some very impressive performances last season ,with some juice in the ground and is coming down to a more attractive mark.3-00 Lingfield – Trip to Paris 1pt win at 4/1
My first notebook horse of the season, held up off a sedate pace in the Roseberry, that performance requires marking up. Still relatively lightly raced, an extra furlong and track which races quicker than Kempton here should suit. Not much to find with the likes of Gold Trail and Fire Fighting here, this mark looks workable for a horse who I think is improving with racing and yard in decent enough form.This Aintree in general seems to have had quite a few fallers, not including the national fences.
To my mind, there seems to have been far more fallers in the last two days,compared to Cheltenham a month back.
Frustrating day. Our Queenie just a bad selection.
Belgrade drifted to 22/1 at one point this morning, was tempted to go back in Ew but didn’t and ran decent to finish second. Frustrating to get the fancied horses beaten to then get done by an outsider. No idea at all where the money from Ocenographer came from, just a bizarre betting heat!
Update -£42
2.05 Aintree – Traffic Fluide
2.45 Newcastle – My Name is Rio
3.00 Lingfield – Trip to Paris NAP
4.15 Aintree – Spring HeeledDon’t understand the betting in the 3.50 at Leicester.
The Godolphin horse it seems people want to back at any price. Verismo drifted from 6s to 12s last night and has comeback in. Mustard has come in from 9/2 to 7/2, whilst my selection Belgrade has gone from 5 out to a current price of 20s!!
Very strange!
1-40 Theinval
2-15 Commissioned
2-50 Carole’s Destrier
3.25 Balder Sucess NAP
4-05 Hunt Ball , Monetaire
4.50 Orbo Ad Chao
5-15 Barters HillBack with a couple of selections after a couple of days of no financial interest.
Friday 10th of April
1.30 Leicester – competitive handicap wher I am taking a chance on Our Queenie at the prices. Her best efforts came early last season and she handles most grounds, but a bit of cut might be ideal at Leicestwr tomorrow. Starting to look reasonably well handicapped with 7lb claimed aboard tomorrow, not familiar with the jockey but the Hannon team normally use good young apprentices. I think a stiff 7f with a bit of cut looks the optimum for her tomorrow and not sure where else she goes if not very competitive in this tomorrow. The race seems to have a good amount pace with a number of prominent runners, main danger could be Wilde Inspiration.
Our Queenie – 1pt win 8/1
3.50 Leicester – Good looking handicap with some nice pieces of progressive form on offer. The Godolphin horse looks way too short for my liking here, keen to take him on with the Hannon horse again in Belgrade. Step up to 10f looks ideal and form of its last two races stands up well. Opening mark here of 79 looks very reasonable and I expect a good run tomorrow. Main danger in my view is Verismo, ran well in maiden defeats last season before winning its maiden stepped up in trip to 12f, drop back in trip should not be an issue and is feared most.
Belgrade 1pt win at 5/1
I would not be so quick to write him off. In a perverse way, if it was gonna get turned over today, I would rather it gets turned over in a similar fashion to that.
Horses he has clearly beaten at Cheltenham on ground he supposedly don’t want,have come back here and beat Hargam relatively comfortably.This is clearly not the horses ability.
I would be more concerned had he gone down beaten half a length in second. It’s clearly shown a much higher level of form than this field, the positive performance of the improving Devilment also means I’m not too concerned with this performance.
