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Whilst I take your point stilvi,
the more obvious notion on NH is already factored into the price. I don’t doubt that people who follow NH closely all season , will have more winners than on the flat as it is more obvious to see (excluding big festivals).But many of the trial races throughout the season are small fields with short price favourites. To make this pay, the strike rate has to be very good due to the prices in question.
Time certainly is an issue with the flat, i cannot disagree with this and in peak summer, you just have to focus on a couple of meetings and in some cases ignore some.
However, my opinion is that if people dedicate time into studying the flat season, they will make more in the long run. Your strike rate does not need to be brilliant due to the general higher price of winners. I have ploughed a lot of time into studying/watching flat racing over the last three seasons, my strike rate is one winner in every 5.2 bets. Maybe modest on the face of things, but my profit is very good based on an average bet size of approx £60-£70 and average price winner of 8.2/1
These profits would be very difficult to achieve on NH races at the stakes I work to which is £50-£120 per bet imo.
Thanks for that Walton. I was not aware of the injury, you have increased my confidence a little, if that was the case.
I think Estidkhaar is a bit of a forgotten horse for the Guineas. If you can excuse his Dewhirst run, though surely he would be more closer to the 8/1 mark.
The Dewhrust run was disappointing, maybe the horse had gone over the top for the season. It was also run on the softest ground the horse had encountered. I backed Belardo that day as clear this horse wants cut in the ground and will be a serious contender if we have a soft ground Guineas.
But I think a decent ground Guineas , I can see Estidkhaar being bang there and I think the 20/1 available is overpriced.
Whilst I agree that the flat season cannot compare with the highs of Cheltenham. Personally, I’m convinced most people who criticise the flat just don’t like the fact you have to work at it more.
Jump racing is more obvious, often what you see is what you get. Flat racing requires more of a thinking process and you have to counter far more nuances and angles into consideration. Critics either don’t have the skill set required to make this profitable/enjoyable, or they just cannot be bothered as it does require more time. 80 horses running on a card at Ascot, as opposed to 30 runners on a card at Cheltenham trials meeting.
I have backed two ante post for the Lincoln. Really like You’re Fired which was a speculative punt at 33s as was always going to find it difficult to get in off 89, was hoping for some rain and the race cutting up a bit.Not too be though.
Also on Zarwaan at 16s and like this horses profile, hope the trainer has the stable in better form than early last season.
