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Josses Hill (vibrato valtat)
Hargam and Stars over the Sea
Holywell NAP (Ma Fieulle)
Arctic Fire (Blue Heron)
Pacha Du Polder (Big fella thanks)
Ted Veale (Dresden)
Unique De Cotte (join the clan)I have loved this horse since it’s debut defeat to Golden Doyen at Cheltenham. We hear that it wants good ground and there are signs to support this, based on its breeding and performance at Musselburgh earlier this season.
I would love to see it bolt up tomorrow. I’m not a massive follower of the jumps when compared to the flat, but this horse just left a massive impression on me since that debut run. I thought it’s performance in the triumph was very good, if what we hear about the ground going against it is completely accurate.
The champion hurdle is often run on good ground and I am on ante post EW for next season at 20s. I’m convinced it will be more like a 6/1 shot on the day next year.
Not a price I will get involved with tomorrow, it should win with a bit in hand. I also think Stars over the Sea is a big price and it ran with credit at Cheltenham. Travelled very well through the triumph and I think this flatter track may suit, providing it gets a decent gallop. Each Way at 22/1 is quite appealing , we not seen the best of this horse over hurdles yet.
Is that right? I didn’t realise that myself, then again, I rarely get involved in laying. I thought the scenario described was more of a trade?
Yes. Providing your liability does not exceed the potential profit from that bet, unless you have the funds in the account to cover the difference that is.
An energy sapping day at Ponte today. First selection offered little , however, got Taffetta home for the place at 33/1 and she ran a cracking race to confirm the promise from her maidens last season.
Current standings + £78 over first two days
I also like the look of Hunt Ball for this race and have had a few quid EW. I thought the run at Aintree this season was very eye catching , he looked like a horse on the way back to some form. I backed him next time at Cheltenham and it ran a cracking race, his last two performances have been below par. The Kempton race I can forgive easier than the festival effort, but I still think its in better form now than at any point in last 12-18 months.
It likes Aintree and its running style and sound jumping suits this track well. I think it will run well at current price of 20/1
Tuesday 7th April:
Two selections at Pontefract tomorrow.
4.00 – I think the ground could be the question to this race . Astronereus looks the progressive horse of the race and ended last season with a excellent effort over 12f at Ascot. Not entirely convinced the drop back to 10f is ideal and I always feel this stable are very patient with the horses, at the prices, I would rather take on tomorrow.
Gothic has ability but rarely seems to put it all together, this could be the year it turns its potential into ability. Stepping Ahead is starting to look well handicapped and will go well if in similar form to start of last season, however, its final four runs of last season were average at best, so a little to prove for me.
I thought Sennockian Star ran quite well at Chelmsford last time out in a race that didn’t really suit, it still don’t quite seem at its best at present and may need quicker ground.
If the ground has genuine cut in it tomorrow, my selection is Latenightrequest . Really progressive last season and turned in some very impressive performances on soft ground at Doncaster and Pontefract last season. Soft ground looks to be the key and with the excellent Jack Garrity taking 5lb off, I think this horse can continue its upward curve tomorrow.Latenightrequest 1pt win @ 10/1
4.30 – An average looking maiden with the possible exception of Tohfa who turned in three good performances last year. However, the current price of around 2/1 looks about right and he could shorten further on the day. The selection in this is a very speculative one, but at a very nice price. I thought Taffetta shaped with promise on its debut last season, it got caught in trouble around 1f from home and would have arguably been a length or two closer. The form of this maiden has turned out ok, it thrown up 2-3 winners later in the season. Second run it was slowly away and could never get involved and a line needs drawing through this run, but considering the slow start and never really asked many questions, it was still not actually beaten that far. Again this maiden has thrown up a decent level of from with 3-4 horses going on to win since then. From a sire who improved with age and racing, I am hoping this horse has a better level of ability than it has shown so far.
Taffetta 1pt EW @ 33/1
Yeats – I would say my edge has been over the last 3-4 seasons, it’s mainly through studying races and experience over time. I’m not going to get involved in the bookies won’t take my bet discussion. I use bet365 and never had an issue, my stakes are likely lower than yours at around £50-£200 and had success for the last 2-3 years with no problem.
As for the edge itself, it is mainly through race watching and looking for specific scenarios. Sectional timing, in my opinion, will eventually open these scenarios up to everyone who pays it enough interest.
I will give you two example horses from last season. One is my user name See The Sun, it’s first run of the season at Pontefract went massively under the radar. It was 6f on soft ground and it set a strong pace whilst carrying weight to rivals and just got done on the line. It then went to Chester with wide draw and enough reasons to make it a watching brief. However, next run was the one to be one, back on flat track and with better ground and it got the job done at 20/1.
Next horse is Almargo, I won’t go into detail with this one, but the key run was first turf start at Musselburgh. A less well handicapped horse would have simply faded down the field, yet this horse got into a battle on front end and still finished 4/12 and the rest is history as far as its season went.
So there is an angle there if your willing to spend the time looking for it and you can still get decent value and bets on. Sectional timing won’t reveal this all and straight away, but I think it will reveal far more of these scenarios over time and prices and margins will erode.
I agree on Spring Offensive from Friday. I backed it on Friday and just over 1f out, I was convinced it would get up and win.
Reason I say this, as much as Musselburgh suits prominent horses, I really don’t think this race had a pace bias. I was pretty convinced Moonlightnavigator could not maintain that pace and hold onto victory. I appreciate the times don’t back it up as being quick, but I think this was an impressive performance to dominate a strong field of improving horses. The form of this race will stand up strong across the season imo, I think there is a good 5-6 different winners to come from this race over coming weeks and months.
Best piece of depth and flat form so far this season.
I still like Lucida for the 1000G. I was taken with her performance when winning the Rockfel, it may not be the strongest of races, though the form has not had chance to be franked or knocked. I just though she looked very classy that day.
The only blot on her card was the next performance in G1 at HQ. I am willing to forgive her this poor performance, maybe she had just had enough for the season. Not sure it was the ground, no pedigree expert, but bit of mixed messages in there with Sharmadal and Street Cry in the family.
I think 14s/16s is a good Ew price. Backed her Ew and also had Ew double with Estidkhaar for the 2000 at 20s.
Willing to forgive both horses their poorer final runs and both would be shorter had they been put away earlier in the season.
I might have this horse completely wrong, but I cannot have Elm Park for either the 2000 or Derby.
I think it is way too short for both races at 12s. Don’t want to crab the horse as its done nothing wrong, but I just can’t have it as a classic winner.
I think the analogy to Kingston Hill is likely to be accurate in how I see Elm Park performing in the Guineas. However, I don’t think it will perform anywhere as well as Kingston Hill did in the Derby. I just see it wandering and hanging all over Epsom Downs and finishing in midfield.
Not a great days action,but here goes
Ifandbutwhynot – 1.25 Haydock
Uigse Beatha – 2.35 Haydock
Almuheet NAP – 2.15 Kempton
Solar Magic – 2.50 KemptonI don’t believe we have seen the best from Here Comes When yet. If we get a soft ground Lockinge, this horse could be very dangerous. I believe this horse will produce a massive run on soft ground at some point in its career.
I appreciate I will be in the minority here, but I really don’t want to see sectional times come into effect.
It’s a purely selfish reason and will not be popular, but I do feel like I have an edge across a season and the introduction of sectional timing will see that edge erode over time.
I don’t follow any current timings/top speed ratings , but I believe there is a select 20 odd races per year in which I currently can find form or a performance which is massively underrated. I don’t want that to become obvious to everyone and sectional timings, over time, will assist with the less obvious being displayed.
All very good points stilvi. I suppose another way of looking at things is that personally, I don’t think you find too many unlucky losers in NH day to day races. Sure, some races can still turn into a sprint, but in the majority of NH races, I don’t believe their are too many hard luck stories.
As you have referred, the flat has draw biased, I would also throw weather in more with the flat due to our unpredictable british summer weather,unlucky in running, bad break from the stalls etc etc.All very frustrating additional reasons for possible defeat, but this also throws up far more hard luck stories. Some are very obvious and the next time that horse reappears ,they can be very over bet.Some slip through the net of the more obvious brigade, which is partly why I believe it is easier to find better price winners on the flat as opposed to NH, adding to this, the flat has greater depth of races.
I like both codes and not trying to claim one is better than the other. Just highlighting,in my opinion, why the flat has many detractors and I firmly believe this is due to some people not having much success, as I think it requires more work away from what the naked eye sees.
