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Some may remember Simon saying he was writing a book for Timeform and it would be free to download. Well it’s ready. Sixty Six pages and a quick browse suggests it is very good. Download here http://en.calameo.com/read/00036246578f6c606ae01?authid=mSo7SacuVBgK
Also, tomorrow at the All Weather Championships day at Lingfild a leaflet will be distributed on sectional times to give a bit of info to racegoers. What a great initiative this is. The leaflet has come about by a collaboration between Timeform, ARC and a grant from The British Horseracing Grant Scheme that is adminisered by the BHA on behalf of the Secretary for Culture, Media and Sport. If you are not going tomorrow the leaflet can be downloaded here https://www.timeform.com/racing/images/Sectionals-leaflet.pdf
I appreciate I will be in the minority here, but I really don’t want to see sectional times come into effect.
It’s a purely selfish reason and will not be popular, but I do feel like I have an edge across a season and the introduction of sectional timing will see that edge erode over time.
I don’t follow any current timings/top speed ratings , but I believe there is a select 20 odd races per year in which I currently can find form or a performance which is massively underrated. I don’t want that to become obvious to everyone and sectional timings, over time, will assist with the less obvious being displayed.
I agree Seethesun. It is a bit like having a favourite band you’ve followed through their unsigned/indie stage suddenly becoming popular with all and sundry.
I agree Seethesun. It is a bit like having a favourite band you’ve followed through their unsigned/indie stage suddenly becoming popular with all and sundry.
I felt the same way with the Internet.
It used to be MY Internet but now look at it. It’s everywhere now, they’ve even got it on computers for Christ’s sake
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I appreciate I will be in the minority here, but I really don’t want to see sectional times come into effect.
It’s a purely selfish reason and will not be popular, but I do feel like I have an edge across a season and the introduction of sectional timing will see that edge erode over time.
I don’t follow any current timings/top speed ratings , but I believe there is a select 20 odd races per year in which I currently can find form or a performance which is massively underrated. I don’t want that to become obvious to everyone and sectional timings, over time, will assist with the less obvious being displayed.
I wouldn’t worry too much. Sectional timings do not have anything like mass appeal and probably never will do. I suspect this will be a case of primarily preaching to the converted and at the same time seeing if there is enough interest to be able to charge for future information.
I read Simon’s ‘booklet’ this morning, and, unless I’m missing the point completely, there’s an edge to the concept which is not mentioned. I can’t believe it has not been picked up by ST specialists and can only imagine they are rightly keeping it to themselves (it’s not the conventional edge that ST experts seem to favour).
But once the sectionals are published, over a period of time anyone would be able to analyse to look for patterns/correlations. Timeform don’t have a monopoly on analytical brain-power.
Corm, I’m not talking about the edge from sectional times per se. Something struck me between the eyes when reading Simon’s publication, and them seemed so obvious I thought, Nah, someone must be doing this.
Simon doesn’t mention it, and I’ve no reason to believe he’d withhold it, so either I’m wrong here (which I doubt) or nobody has picked it up.
I am intrigued by what you think you have discovered, Joe! I did not deliberately “hold anything back”, other than revealing sectional pars for only one of the courses, rather than all/most of them. But it is an “introduction” rather than an advanced work, let alone the final word. Some of the more advanced things – measuring jockey efficiency, modelling in play in conjunction with prices, projecting pace scenarios, identifying winning “systems” from sectionals etc – will need to wait for another day, if they get written about at all. It seemed necessary to set the ball rolling, and the BHA/DCMS were interested in funding it (but changed tack late in the day). You can always drop me a line if you like
Well, Simon, at least I was right – I knew it would have crossed your mind: jockey ‘efficiency’. It seemed to me more important than horse ‘efficiency’ in ST analysis, in that the times a horse runs for any section are controlled by the jockeys, especially in the longer races, only 20% of which, as you highlight, are truly run.
I saw your booklet as a fine analysis of the ingredients without any mention of the chef :)
So are there jockeys in that 20% sample who come up again and again, especially among those who dictate the pace? How many, over all the races, hit the ideal finishing percentage (which I assume would be 99.9%) or are closest to it?
It’s a fascinating angle – to me, at least. Good luck with your future work on it.
Joe
” It seemed to me more important than horse ‘efficiency’ in ST analysis, in that the times a horse runs for any section are controlled by the jockeys, especially in the longer races”
You have obviously never ridden a horse.
They are not that controllable.
The jockey does his best to restrain a horse, hide it behind others or try to get a horse to close up if it is lagging.
The horse and horse pack dictates its actual pace far more than any jockey can ever dictate.
If the jockey could control the horse pace individual sections then he would, but some horses to be effective must race prominently or lead and some want to lag well behind.I’ve blogged two or three times about jockey efficiency as measured through sectional times. Jim Crowley came out well in the early days; Think Martin Harley was top in 2013/2014 (sufficiently detailed sectionals exist only for AW).
However, the overwhelming impression was that there is a great deal of noise in the data. Jockeys don’t know how to ride efficiently with any great precision or repeatability. That’s kinda why sectionals are important.
I appreciate I will be in the minority here, but I really don’t want to see sectional times come into effect.
It’s a purely selfish reason and will not be popular, but I do feel like I have an edge across a season and the introduction of sectional timing will see that edge erode over time.
I don’t follow any current timings/top speed ratings , but I believe there is a select 20 odd races per year in which I currently can find form or a performance which is massively underrated. I don’t want that to become obvious to everyone and sectional timings, over time, will assist with the less obvious being displayed.
Over how many seasons have you had this edge in 20 odd races per year?
Which bookmakers allow punters to bet with them who have this edge and would like to keep it secret? Can we have a list of bookmakers? Presumably they would also qualify for the premium charge at Betfair.
If such an edge was there would bookmakers not know about it and take it into account and adjust their odds accordingly?
By all means have analysis of times after the race if so interested but there is no place for them on screen during the “live” race. They are a distraction and receive little or no analysis and have no interest for 99% of viewers during the “live” race.
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