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Thread Update -£452
Saturday 9th of May
Enforced break until build up to Royal Ascot unless today brings some joy.2.00 Ascot Penhill 1pt win 7/2
3.45 Ascot So Beloved 1pt EW 16/1
3.45 Ascot Zarwaan 1pt EW 12/1
3.30 Lingfield Flag War 1pt win 2/1
5.10 Lingfield After The Sunset 1pt win 5/12.00 Ascot – Penhill
3.30 Lingfield – Flag War NAP
3.45 Ascot – So Beloved
5.10 Lingfield – After The SunsetRES
3.45 Ascot – Zarwaan
4.40 Lingield – DonnchaBack on the horse tomorrow as some horses I like the look of at good prices.
2.10 Chester – Arnold Lane 1pt EW at 14/1
2.45 Chester – Prince Gagarin 1pt win at 5/1 ….backed before Nafaqa came out
4.45 Chester – Neutron Bomb 1pt win at 9/2
7.45 Ascot – Nortron 1pt EW at 16/1Surely Prince Gagarin is overpriced tomorrow?? The step up to 10f looks ideal, last season I had this horse at back of my mind as a lively outsider for the Derby. It’s won on soft ground round Ponty and won with a turn of foot that day. Slow pace likely here, Kirby may even look to set the pace and kick early.
I’m slightly surprised it is still 7/2 with only four runners left .Cheers Ginger. Some real valuable information in there. My strike rate over the last three years has been one winner in around 5.4 bets. i know I am making some bad errors at present, over and under thinking in selections. Lack of confidence has led me to think more literally and with disappointing results.
The bit that annoys me the most is this year and couple of friends decided to follow me in on my selections and staking plan. I feel bad for them, though their stakes are not big and they understand the pitfalls, but one winner in the last 21 bets is pretty pathetic and my longest losing run in the previous couple of years was 13.
But hey, I shall remain fairly positive and take a week away from the form and just back horses from my spreadsheet of eye catchers over the next week or so.
Thanks for the stats information. Very useful.
I had a share in a horse with John Quinn a couple of years back. Really nice man, got a lot of time for his owners and lovely set up in Malton.
Unfortunately ,the horse and syndicate was not as good as the trainer!
I’m in complete agreement with you Steve, in respect that I firmly believe Gleneagles to be the superior horse to Legitissamo. You may also be right that conditions were quicker on the Sunday.
My point was there was alternative angles to the two races you presented on time. Angles which both led some credence as to why times were maybe quicker on the Sunday, for other reasons that just the ground.
I agree with all of the above thehorsesmouth. If they meet again over a mile, I would be all over Lucida overturning the form.
Chances are they will meet again in a 9-10 runner race and the turn of foot displayed by Lucida will be too difficult to match, off a likely slower pace than Sunday’s race.
Thread update – £212
Poor run leads me to having a break for a week or two. However, I have some horses who have caught my eye this season and not prepared to let these go as they have produced 3 winners out of 4 so far this season…..trouble is I have not backed them!
I will be backing my list horses almost blindly over the next fortnight whilst I take a break from form studying.
One selection runs today in the 4.20 at Brighton – 1pt win Puzzle Time to hopefully snap the bad run.
To compound my luck at present, I had a nice EW bet on Duke of Clarence for Chester Cup at 16s a couple of weeks back. Price trimmed into 12s until it was handed the dreaded stall 19. Now out to 20s and any realistic chance it had has probably gone down the river
I think there is an argument for both sides though, especially based on the two examples given.
You would fully expect there to be a time difference between Balty Boys and Bragging as there is a class difference between both horses.
The debate over Twighlight Son and Eastern Impact has a big pace difference to consider too. A bigger field of approx 18 runners are nearly always going to produce a quicker time than a race of 6-7 runners.
So I would not be so sure that Sunday was more conducive to quicker times, compared with the Saturday. It’s very difficult to gauge. I felt both Guineas were a good test, but I feel the 1000G was won by the best 10f horse in the field. The 2000G was won by the best miler in the field.
About £900.
The way I work always has high and lows to some extent. I think I’m over trying to be honest. Made some bad errors in bets made in recent weeks, but the errors that really hurt are letting horses I have been waiting for go. Mainly, Ayaar and You’re Fired this season. I backed You’re Fired ante post for the Lincoln and never made the cut, common sense would expect me to back it for a modest handicap at Ripon …..but no !
Libran today was a good example. I knew he had the best form on offer ,but cos it showed little last time out, I went against my instincts and backed Bling King who ran well last time out. Fair to say I was raging after this mistake!
As the race currently looks so open. I have had a small EW investment on Festive Fare. It has stacks to find, but I have just always felt it is a very nice horse. Don’t need much on the exchanges at 200/1 to get a nice return.
Hoping it might head to Dee Stakes and put in a good performance this week.
Monday 4th of May.
Back to it today in pursuit of finding some form again.
Two at Windsor and two at Beverley today.
1.35 Bev – Charlie Lad 1pt win at 8/1
2.10 Bev – Bling King 1pt win at 7/2
4.00 Windsor – Balmoral Castle 2pt win at 5/2
4.35 Windsor – Cape Victoria 1pt win at 9/2Only really watched the race once and best horse on the day won. However, my instant reaction was that if the first two meet again over a mile, I would be all over Lucida to reverse this form.
The winner has the advantage to two runs already and I think the good pace has set the race up for her. You would have to doubt it will get such a nice pace in future races and I think Lucida became a great target for the horse to aim at.
I think the winner will prove a better horse at 10f
2.00 Newmarket – Halation
2.15 Goodwood – Jordan Princess NAP
4.00 Thirsk – Signor Piccolo
5.15 Goodwood – Bold AppealReserves
2.50 Goodwood Red Avenger
3.45 Newmarket MoheetTommy’s Secret ran a cracking race in defeat and can have no real complaints. Nottingham seemed to suit as expected, got beat by two short heads…..just the way things are going at present but that will change.
Thread update +£48
I’m on Estidhkaar at 20s and I expect it to run a really solid race, but probably in defeat. I’m on EW and I think my place chances are probably more likely.
I love Home of the Brave, followed this horse since its debut at Windsor last year. Still a bit gutted I let the hype of Faydhan stop me from backing it last time. Think it will run well but final furlong presents a lot of questions.
Belardo price will tumble if we do get a couple of wet days, it’s chance relies upon that.
Gleneagles very solid on form, price does not interest me.
Intilaaq hugely impressive last time out,but I didn’t go in on the 20s on offer after, so cannot really justify going in now at 11s. It was always going to be supplemented imo.
At the prices, I think I will give another chance to Moheet EW. Travelled well off the pace at Newmarket in slowish run race, 2f from home I would have wanted to have my money on it, but it just stayed on without ever really threatening. Will strip fitter for that run, will have a stronger pace to sit off on Saturday and he could be an overlooked horse at a tempting 25/1.I’m going on Saturday and will let a few quid role on Moheet for 2000G glory .
Tuesday 28th of April
Nottingham 2.45 – I like the look of Tommy’s Secret here, recent performance on the AW have been decent enough and form has been franked.
Has form on the ground and I think the track will be a rela plus today, long galloping straight at Nottingham should suit. Does not look as if it has much in hand of this mark, but I think this is a relatively weak race.
Best Kept has been disappointing, interesting to see what Roger Varian can get out of this hhorse and slipped to a handy looking mark. That stable not really got going yet and worth taking on at the prices. Celtic Sixpence won last year of 3lb lower, ran well at Doncaster latest and should be there abouts. Not sure it would have won last time out, jockey made a mistake but I think it may have got done without this mistake.
I have a lot of respect for Jane Chapple Hyam yard and with claimer on top, I am hoping Tommy’s Secret can finish well to get up close to the line.Tommy’S Secret 1pt win 6/1
