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Just wondered what strategy others have when that bad run kicks in? I started the season in good form, up to 2 weeks ago I was £1300 in profit for the season. However, it has gone downhill fast since then. I am now on probably my worst run ever of 1 winner in the last 20 bets! To compound matters further, not may of these last 20 odd bets have actually come that close to winning!
Do others find a break away from it for a couple of weeks help? Or just a case of riding through a bad spell?
I think a break away from the form will help. I have horses who have gone down in my spreadsheet to follow that I will back fairly blindly for next couple of weeks. One is Puzzle Time tomorrow at Brighton.
Any thoughts appreciated. Confidence has hit a low point!
About £900.
The way I work always has high and lows to some extent. I think I’m over trying to be honest. Made some bad errors in bets made in recent weeks, but the errors that really hurt are letting horses I have been waiting for go. Mainly, Ayaar and You’re Fired this season. I backed You’re Fired ante post for the Lincoln and never made the cut, common sense would expect me to back it for a modest handicap at Ripon …..but no !
Libran today was a good example. I knew he had the best form on offer ,but cos it showed little last time out, I went against my instincts and backed Bling King who ran well last time out. Fair to say I was raging after this mistake!
Just wondered what strategy others have when that bad run kicks in? I started the season in good form, up to 2 weeks ago I was £1300 in profit for the season. However, it has gone downhill fast since then. I am now on probably my worst run ever of 1 winner in the last 20 bets! To compound matters further, not may of these last 20 odd bets have actually come that close to winning!
Do others find a break away from it for a couple of weeks help? Or just a case of riding through a bad spell?
I think a break away from the form will help. I have horses who have gone down in my spreadsheet to follow that I will back fairly blindly for next couple of weeks. One is Puzzle Time tomorrow at Brighton.
Any thoughts appreciated. Confidence has hit a low point!
Hi Seethesun,
Losing runs are only to be expected for every punter. The liklihood of a losing run depends on your over all strike rate – which in turn is affected by the average price taken.
I’ve had a quick look at your DLAP thread. I counted 25 bets with your average price taken around 6/1 (just over 14%). At that average you can expect losing runs fairly frequently. Obviously, only needing 1 in 7 to break even, so it is not surprising you’ll have a losing run of 10 or 20 fairly regularly. I don’t know your normal strike rate, but if you’re a good judge it is likely to be around 16.7% …
Don’t ask me to explain the mathematics, I don’t understand (taking the numbers from my old “Betting The Timeform Way” book)…
Someone with a 16.7% strike rate can expect a losing run of 10 to start on average once in 37 bets, a losing run of 15 in 92, losing run of 20 in 230 runs and of 25 bet losing run on average once in 572.
If you were an exceptional judge, achieving a 20% strike rate with your average 6/1 bets – then you can expect: A losing run of 10 once in 47, 15 in 142, 20 in 434 and 25 in 1323…
So losing runs are inevitable and not neccesarily anything to do with backing the wrong horses. However, the opposite is also true; sometimes punters believe they must be doing something differently because their betting is not bringing the results it did a few months ago. But sometimes the winning run is just luck; every punter (good or bad) goes through a winning run as well as a losing run. You may or may not be one, I don’t know your history.
Having said all that, it is easy to change the way you bet after/during a losing run. Thankfully, they don’t happen often with me, but I’ve been through losing runs in the last year (awful one at Royal Ascot) lost confidence in my selection process; and because of losing enjoyment in form study/betting (“betting” not “racing”) cutting corners in form study – exacerbating the situation! I know some are capable of “riding through a lean spell”, but when it plays havoc with how I study/selection process – that’s impossible for me.
I sometimes take a week completely off from racing, sometimes cut back on the number of bets for a while until my mojo returns.
Good Luck and hope the losing run ends soon Seethesun.
Value Is EverythingCheers Ginger. Some real valuable information in there. My strike rate over the last three years has been one winner in around 5.4 bets. i know I am making some bad errors at present, over and under thinking in selections. Lack of confidence has led me to think more literally and with disappointing results.
The bit that annoys me the most is this year and couple of friends decided to follow me in on my selections and staking plan. I feel bad for them, though their stakes are not big and they understand the pitfalls, but one winner in the last 21 bets is pretty pathetic and my longest losing run in the previous couple of years was 13.
But hey, I shall remain fairly positive and take a week away from the form and just back horses from my spreadsheet of eye catchers over the next week or so.
Thanks for the stats information. Very useful.
Maybe the fact that you have friends following your selections is clouding your judgement? I know I’ve said before that if I enter a competition I’ll choose a different horse to the one that I’d put money on [not that I seem to be able to pick any winners these days!] but it sometimes doesn’t take a lot to put you out of kilter selection wise.Maybe keep a record of horses you would have backed for a few weeks, but without putting money on and then look at the selections in an impartial way afterwards? And brace yourself for the possibility of missing out on a good winner during that time [oh the pain of that; you know who you are Wayward Prince!] Even though I only have tiny bets I realised a few years ago that I wasn’t enjoying my racing so much as I only wanted to find the winner [or a good priced place horse]. I almost had to go ‘cold turkey’ and start watching racing just for the fun of it again. No point following a sport if it’s not making you happy.
I wish I could break mine at the moment. Like Ginge my judgement gets clouded when I start losing and horses I should back I don’t and they win then at the same time the ones I back get beat.
I am taking next week off and hopefully I will come back with a clear head.In a slightly perverse way, I am kind of relieved I am not the only one going through this run at present. Some on here who seem to be decent judges also seem to be going through a bad spell at present.
I was keen really keen on two yesterday. Got the early 7/2 on Penhill and that one obliged but lack of confidence meant it was only a 1pt bet. The other one was Flag War which was disappointing.
I just find there are some really strange results recently. I could not see Burano winning the race Flag War contested at Lingfield. How many times has Burano disappointed now in 18 months.
I flirted with the idea of backing both That is the Spirit and Donncha, but again lack of confidence meant I let both go. That is the Spirit had to wok hard to beat a horse who whilst consistent is fairly exposed…..name escapes me but quite how that horse finished second and beat Penitent,Aeolus, Diesentric I just have no idea, the ground can be no excuse as all three of these have good form on soft.
Clear Spring is possibly another, less surprised by this one as potential for messy race and ran well this season. It don’t hide the fact it beat two horses it was about 15lb inferior too, albeit receiving a lot of weight off one of them.
A strange last month or so in general for me.
I don’t bet regularly, so experience neither losing nor winning runs. But I’d say the reason some very good judges cannot make a living from the game is the mental side, the pressure, the confidence damage. If you could ‘de-nerve’ yourself, you’d probably do very well consistently.
I’d be hopeless as a regular punter. I don’t have the mental or emotional steadfastness to survive for long. I suspect very few do.
You might convince yourself that the dependence of your friends on your selections doesn’t influence you, but it does. It might be only on a subconscious level, but it will be exerting extra pressure when that’s the last thing you need.
Even a pro like Graham Cunningham could not withstand such pressure. He ran a tipping site for a while and everyone had an extended free trial, during which Graham showed an outstanding profit. As soon as he started charging for the service, things went rapidly downhill and it wasn’t long until he packed up and refunded membership fees. Depending on your own judgement is fine. Knowing others are depending on it is something else completely…a game changer.
Good luck. In your place I’d politely tell my friends, no more bets, and my mantra would be ‘You’re never as bad as you think you are, and you’re never as good as you think you are.’
Thanks Steeplechasing. I think their is some wise words in your post.
I don’t feel that me giving out my selections to friends is having any effect, however, maybe there is something in this subconsciously . There is a part of me that does not want to use this as excuse, but I don’t think it is helping me either.
It could be time to knock it on the head and almost start the season again. I am fairly level stakes from when I started the season, so looks like a good time start a fresh.
Generally – for me – this time of year has been one of the best for making a profit. Concentrating on better quality races – “trainers in form”, or horses “best fresh”/run well at this time of year. These often beat the “form” choice/s.
Value Is EverythingThis happened to me. A mate of mine started to buy into one of my 2 lucky 15 bets each week, therefore I doubled the stakes on that slip. Many a time, despite me thinking I’d picked the better slip for him, the other one fared better. Once I had to tell he won nowt but I had won £200. He was alright about it but I felt so guilty. All turned out alright in the end though when we won £600 between us. Our final leg saw Big Buck’s win at 7/2 on Cheltenham Trials Day (what a price that was in hindsight). He gave up soon after, probably expecting this every week.
I think my worst losing run is 30-odd without a winner. Not doing great at moment but I am picking a few outsiders so although I’m down over the last month it’s probably not as bad as I think as the winners have been fairly decent prices.
The way I try to get through the losing run is by carrying on as normal. No extra or less bets or change in stakes. Just hope one day the luck changes. It’s certainly out at the moment on the Lottery as I seem to keep getting 2 numbers and the bonus ball. Haven’t had a win in nearly a year
Look here and youll see what the legendary Phil Bull had to say on losing runs.
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