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Had to have a few quid on Muraaqaba before she runs at Donny tomorrow – 28s with SkyBet but not too keen on her chances tomorrow, purely with Mark Johnston’s stable form a worry.
Five of last seven jollies have won the May Hill and the last three to do so having won the G3 at Newmarket have similarly dotted up, Ihtimal and Certify winning the last two renewals.
The Johnston stable since August 29th –
67 runners – 5 winners (3 favourites and two odds-on)
I wouldn’t be too worried about the Johnston yard form, JJM. With the way he campaigns them, the bulk of his horses just get a little exposed at this time of the year.
He had an excellent Ebor Festival given the lack of winners, with a load of runners-up.
Muraaqaba looks a little flattered by her latest win, given that she was probably the only one who handled the ground that day. Those with American blood could well turn her over today and jolt her right out of the Guineas picture. Maybe I’ll look daft, but I’m against her today, let alone the Guineas.
Cursory Glance
does look quite solid at this point. Any form linked to Tiggy Wiggy is rock solid and she shapes like one who will certainly get a mile in time.
At 12/1 i think LUCIDA will turn form around at 1m next year at Newmarket. i hope now she put away for season and does not run in fillies mile.
Roger Varian has reported that
Cursory Glance
will not be ready to run in the 1000 Guineas due to a fetlock injury. They are hoping to have her back for Royal Ascot and that is now the plan for her.
Found
is as low as 5/2 now and I am not touching her at those odds.
I have done her stable companion
Words
at 25/1 and a rank outsider
Irish Rookie
(from the Martyn Meade stable) at 66/1 each way for the crack. The latter horse has a mountain to climb on form but the stable are keen to have a tilt at the Guineas and if she performs with credit in one of the trials they will let her take her chance.
There will be a lot of bubbles burst in the spring and Homecoming Queen proved that stable number ones and hot favourites don’t always win.
Words
won a maiden in good style and the form of the race worked out really well. I was actually more taken with her than I was Found on their debuts. Michael Tabor seemed to suggest that
Found
was more of an Oaks prospect after her Boussac win and pooh-poohed the value of her Guineas price at the time for that reason. Best price 4/1 is skinny this far from the race.
1000 Guineas Words 25/1
1000 Guineas Irish Rookie 66/1 each-way
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Tiggy Wiggy – made all, ran on well.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Found was mightily impressive at longchamp and as it was only her third run she probably has plenty of improvement. Words was also very impressive but until we see how the horses have developed from two to three it’s hard to tell which one to back early season and which one is the more likely oaks type. I think found will Go for the guineas as her mum ran at a mile most of her career. Aiden has such a strong hand for the classics. Interesting that this is probably the weakest batch of older horses he has had for some time with a lot sold or gone to stud at coolmore(Australia.war command and magician). Makes you think he must believe in his classic horses.
Tiggy Wiggy – made all, ran on well.
A bold St Leger prediction this early in the season Ian
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Any thoughts on this head mareak horse from Italy she got now.
Still like LUCIDA can forgive her last run had busy season she did
Lol – Steve.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Now that Words is unlikely to run in the Guineas because of some small setbacks I’ve picked a couple to finalise my outsiders list ante-post.
Good luck to Found if she wins it, I was tempted at 7/1 but just feel the Oaks may be her bag.
Jellicle Ball from the John Gosden yard created a big impression on me winning at Kempton on her only start. She raced towards the rear that day but travelled well. When started to make her run she was briefly behind one of the other runners before being gently taken out slightly wider and asked to quicken. She made up terrific ground to mow the leaders down and the jockey was able to drop his hands close home as she had put the race to bed. Maybe all-weather form isn’t sexy enough for some punters but it will do for me, and while she might be better at 10f and upwards I am fairly happy she will be competitive over 1 mile at Newmarket. 40/1 just looks too big in an open race beyond the favourite.
Finally, it seems worth the gamble that Tiggy Wiggy will get the trip. I went down that road with Lucky Kristale last year and got burned but Hannon’s speedster is classy and hardy in equal measure. Worth a wee saver at 20/1 for my money.
Jellicle Ball 40/1
Tiggy Wiggy 20/1
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I hope the Hannon’s keep the faith with Marsh Hawk but the vibes aren’t good, both her and Tiggy Wiggy look more speedier types than mile sorts but Hannon is capable and if the ground is quick’ish I think one at least could be in the mix. O’Brien’s Together Forever is a big enough price of 16’s based on her Fillies mile win over C@D although the going could be different in May, she was also sent off a short price fav when going down 3/4 of a length against Found who was 14/1 that day so at that stage at least it looked like Together Forever was higher in the pecking order with Joey on TF and Heffernan on Found. Found has gone onto better things but I don’t think they are a million miles apart, probably just the 1 mile……
Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
Slightly interesting or not depending on how you look at things with the Aiden O’Brien workout at the Curragh today after racing was that Ryan Moore was down to ride Together Forever whilst Michael Hussey was down to ride Found. I didn’t see the workout but was this to be the case?
Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
I think Lucida is over-priced at 14/1.
This filly has already finished second in a Group one beaten only a neck and has won a Group 2. She is clearly at home amongst the best of her sex in her generation. She was then beaten in the Fillies mile when the going was pretty soft and the first two home were more stoutly bred types that should stay further. That race was a stamina test for two year olds and this filly being by Shamardal out of a Street Cry mare you would think would be much better suited by a decent ground one mile as a three year old much more so than a soft ground one as a two year old.
Her breeding suggests she’ll be a miler, she’s trained by Jim Bolger so she’s from a top stable and he knows how to get horses ready for a classic he’s done it time and again.
The favourite is entitled to be favourite and she has obvious claims but at 3/1 she’s short enough.
I’m not convinced High Celebrity will be a miler. She may struggle to get home and her price is too short. Together Forever and Agnes Stewart will surely need more of a stamina test as three year olds. Beautiful Romance has only won a maiden and is in the care of Godolphin and Godolphin horses nowadays you have to doubt will even turn up and if they do they don’t really make much impression in the Guineas’. Tiggy Wiggy won’t stay in a horse box, at least I very much doubt it.
There is a fair chance that something will come from left field to win this race but when you peice together the evidence, pricewise Lucida is a standout at 14/1.
If you fancy Lucida then you have to consider Raydara which beat it at the Curragh and is 33/1 but its the Aga Khan’s and he has a nice French filly which ran second to Found at Longchamp called Ervedya which is 25/1. I think if either of these turn up on the day they won’t be anything like those prices so could be worth a punt
very impressed with Ervedya’s win in the Imprudence.If they get her to settle at HQ,she can be a major player(imo)
took a little bit of the 20s(sportingbet) only allowed pennies,so i wont be retiring if she wins.lol
Ervedya was predictably cut in after her Imprudence win today.
It’s the time of year when anything that shows they still have four legs will be sliced in. As always, it’s not certain whether she’ll come to Newmarket or stay in France. If she does turn up you could see 5/1 or so being her price depending on how many bubbles go pop. Best price for now is 14/1 and down to 10/1 in places. Early doors yet though.
There are tickles of money on Together Forever and she is described as the one other certain candidate along with Found from Ballydoyle. I would have backed her at 16/1 if I could have been sure there would be cut in the ground. It is still a question as to whether she just happened to make a huge chunk of improvement on her final start of last season, or whether meeting the soft surface did the trick. She’ll be a single figure price and big player if there is juice in the ground at Newmarket.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
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