1000 Guineas 2015

seethesun wrote:

I’m in complete agreement with you Steve, in respect that I firmly believe Gleneagles to be the superior horse to Legitissamo. You may also be right that conditions were quicker on the Sunday.

My point was there was alternative angles to the two races you presented on time. Angles which both led some credence as to why times were maybe quicker on the Sunday, for other reasons that just the ground.

I’m just making my case for the conditions being more suitable for fast times on the Sunday.

The original point made about Legatissimo being 3 seconds faster than Gleneagles was misleading in my opinion and I think we should all consider the bigger picture, rather than make a hasty judgement based on two figures on different days.

I don’t use the timings that much, it doesn’t apply to most of my betting, which is often well before the day of the race. I’m by no means any expert on the subject.

Simon Rowlands is working for Timeform and has developed sectional timing analysis techniques. If he says it was markedly faster on 1000 Guineas day, you can be sure it was.

Triptych wrote:

<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>stevecaution wrote:</div>
A million miles away from it for me.

I wouldn’t have pick Legatissimo with 10 picks at my disposal but all the best to her and anyone who backed her. Osaila ran roughly how I expected she would but that was about it for me. Fadhayyil looked like it briefly but just wasn’t up to it and Irish Rookie outran her lowly rating.

Steve I truly believe that Fadhayyil would have either won the Guineas or gone much closer but for the fact that her leg bandage came undone just as she was making her challenge, I think it spooked her…She was the best looking filly in the paddock by far and looked fit and ready to run, I feel sorry for connections and am sure she is going to pick up either the Irish Guineas or the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot so don’t desert her. Jac

I am not sure how much the flapping bandage would have put Fadhayyil off Jac. To be honest I thought she ran either like she needed the race, or she just didn’t get home at the mile.

I agree with you that she looked the part and when I saw them before the race I went away from Jellicle Ball as my best chance and thought Fadhayyil looked the filly with more substance and scope.

Watching the race again since, I was struck by how well Irish Rookie travelled at one stage. When you watch her and Lucida start to make their moves, the Martyn Meade trained horse comes there going equally as well as Lucida, perhaps a shade better at one stage. Whether she also ran out of juice was my first thought because she didn’t sustain that run and seemed to also run about a bit once Lucida had gotten away from her.

Irish Rookie hasn’t grown much over the winter by the look of her and I have my doubts about her staying power based on the way her run petered out in the 1000 Guineas. I backed her at 66/1 and felt she would beat some of those with bigger names, which she certainly did.

Irish Rookie’s trainer has said she may run in the French 1000 Guineas, as he feels she has come out of the race well. He felt she made her challenge at the wrong time, as they were going into the dip, and would have preferred if she had made her move later. He thinks she became unbalanced and got a bit squeezed out, losing momentum and her chance. He felt she ran a bit green and he has shelved plans to step her up in trip as he was surprised with the speed she showed.

You could be right that Fadhayyil got a fright and was distracted by the loose bandage whipping about her leg. It’s not something I have seen too often to know how it would affect a horse’s concentration. My gut feeling, if I ignore the bandage and accept she was fit enough, is that the mile was a shade far. Barry Hills did say she wouldn’t get any further than the mile and that always casts a slight doubt when trainers say that. It will be interesting to see her next time and hopefully get a definitive result either way.

Thanks for the input, I hadn’t really given the bandage factor much thought but it is something to have a think about for sure and it wasn’t clear to me when it had actually come loose.

I hadn’t factored in a head wind on Saturday so stand to be corrected on conditions being the same. Even allowing for that though I still think those fillies will prove to be very good – certainly better than last years crop. Jim bolger has compared Lucida to Finsceal Beo and we all know how good she was!