1000 Guineas 2015

Let’s hope the groundsman reads this and turns on the sprinklers in good time.

A couple of days ago when having a punt I got 25/1 about Erveyda and shes been cut after her win today quite rightly so but I also got 33/1 for Fadhayyl which was to good to miss based on my analysis and she has been cut to 16/1 anyone have any idea why, has she run recently as that seems quite a difference.

Ricky, hasn’t she got several lengths to find on (rather appropriately) Found.

I hope you are not suggesting that O’Brien is thinking of sending the favourite to Newmarket a few pounds short of match fitness? Just think of all those people who have backed it ante-post. Surely the great man wouldn’t do that?

Not wishing to pee on Ricky’s little bonfire but I think some perspective is required on Ervedya’s performance today.

She was dropping back in class to Group 3 company today and she was favourite for the race. The last time she was in group 1 company, Found was a ready 2 and a half lengths too good for her. Found was the away horse that day and Ervedya will have to leave France this time.

Comparisons with Zarkava seem a little premature considering that Ervedya has been beaten twice already and is highly unlikely to be treading the boards at distances the mighty Zarkava tackled.

Where Ricky gets “winning eased down by 4 or 5” from I don’t know. The winning margin was one and three quarter lengths, so either Ricky is measuring it in Meerkat lengths, as opposed to horse lengths, or was distracted by the commotion going on in the underpants at the time.

The trainer said he won’t make up his mind where she runs until all the French trials are completed. Not a lot of good having a ticket for a race the horse isn’t in. By all means she may be good enough, I expect she will be near second favourite if she runs and it’s at that stage when punters can relax and feel well ahead of the game.

I can tell from experience that getting the odds is only part of the equation, having backed Maybe at 25/1 for the 1000 Guineas, then watched her line up 13/8f and get beat hollow by 25/1 and 33/1 shots.

ricky lake wrote:

Steve

I dont think you know much about racing , I think you are pretty hot on the betting side , but for racing …well you dont win the gold medal ….

Stilvi is nearer the mark ..I would humbly suggest

Sorry Ricky, but your comment means nothing in the context of this thread.

This is about discussing the winner of this year’s 1000 Guineas.

I have put my points forward regarding Ervedya’s performance and the context of the race quality and opposition. I have also explained that the trainer has said he will not decide whether she runs at Newmarket until all the French trials have been run.

These are all factors pertinent to the horse’s chance of winning the race and that is what this particular thread is about.

People reading this thread can feel free to consider the points I have raised and agree, disagree, or totally ignore them. I feel it is good sense when having a bet to consider if the horse is definitely going to run in the race in question.

We are all free to see the racing game as we wish. I am far from gullible or naive about what goes on in racing but I don’t subscribe to the dross/bent/useless jockey conspiracy theories either.

Something else I don’t subscribe to is telling other users that they don’t know much about the game of racing. It’s something I just don’t feel is right, or helpful in creating a forum where people can feel at ease and their input welcome.

It’s a bit sad that you see the need to run my knowledge of the sport down and I’d take a good look at yourself before casting aspersions on people you have never met. Wisdom and Knowledge are separate identities.

Looking forward to reading your forum blog ricky; someone who knows so much about racing should share their knowledge with the rest of us.

agree with steve.it all depneds wether she turns up at HQ. After that performance i was more than happy to risk a few shillings on her ‘turning’ up

She has a few pounds to find with Found on Bousaac form,but things (imo) didn’t pan out for her that day.

I have to agree Steve is on the nail I had 33/1 everything screamed the horse Killer Instinct was bred to win the 2000 I was chuffed when it got backed down to 2/1, he ran at Newbury and I went to watch him run and he didn’t have a hard race at all and the whip wasn’t even raised I recall as he was ridden just using the jockey urging him forward and finished 2nd I was more than happy with that, the next thing he was pulled and entered into a French race which he won standing on his head. I am still convinced he would have won at Newmarket as well. I did wonder how much the bookies were responsible for his being pulled but in the end put it down to sheer bad luck but I did back him AP with decent wedge and I lost the lot but that’s racing for you. But cant complain because I previously had Lend A Hand ( 2nd 33/1) Bahar 2nd 20/1) City Honours (2nd 20/1) and Cape Verdi (won 7/1) for all the Classics in singles, doubles, trebles, and accumulators each way so the bookies paid out handsomely . You pays your money and you take your choice that’s horse racing for you.

I still like Lucida for the 1000G. I was taken with her performance when winning the Rockfel, it may not be the strongest of races, though the form has not had chance to be franked or knocked. I just though she looked very classy that day.

The only blot on her card was the next performance in G1 at HQ. I am willing to forgive her this poor performance, maybe she had just had enough for the season. Not sure it was the ground, no pedigree expert, but bit of mixed messages in there with Sharmadal and Street Cry in the family.

I think 14s/16s is a good Ew price. Backed her Ew and also had Ew double with Estidkhaar for the 2000 at 20s.

Willing to forgive both horses their poorer final runs and both would be shorter had they been put away earlier in the season.

Lucida is certainly a good contender. She has a bit to find with Found on form but probably didn’t enjoy the soft ground as Tommy says, on her final start at two.

A few things I worry about for her are if there is juice in the ground will it be a big dent in her chance, and you also have to ask if it was just the ground that did her in, or did the Newmarket Mile draw her stamina out?

Jim Bolger didn’t have a vintage season last term, a wee bit below the glories of Dawn Approach etc previously and the other factor that puts a little doubt in my mind is that Lucida only beat Barry Hills Fadhayyil by a length in the Rockfel. That result leaves only a pound between the two fillies on the ratings and Barry’s Tamayuz filly has had one run less.

Fadhayyil was no match for Marsh Hawk when the Hannon filly stormed home on the soft 1st time up but she was favourite that day so must have been showing something. She landed her maiden next time, at Salisbury, keeping on well to score, showing some promise without setting the world alight. I thought she ran a great race in the Rockfel, again keeping on well, despite being a bit green, and she seemed to run above expectations, given that she was 10/1 and Lucida the Evs favourite.

Barry Hills has had his share of tragedy with his son John passing away and his own health problems. It wasn’t that long ago though that he was training a 1000 Guineas winner for the same owner with Ghanaati. If anything this horse looks a more obvious candidate and in a race where Found seems obvious but short and there is little value in Andre Fabre’s filly at her odds, I think 20/1 is pretty decent for an each-way against the grain.

This will be Barry’s last season training and according to recent reports this horse will take the same path to Newmarket as his last 1000 Guineas winner:-

Fadhayyil, second in the Group 2 Rockfel Stakes, will head directly to the Qipco 1,000 Guineas but will be given a racecourse gallop at Newmarket during the Craven meeting, a strategy Hills used with Ghanaati prior to her win in the 2009 Guineas.

He said: “She’s full of quality and has the right temperament. She’ll get a mile all right, although I’m not sure about a mile and a quarter.”

Fadhayyil 1000 Guineas each-way 20/1 Boylesports