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I’m in that same boat Steve. Had a great start to the season, my thread was showing some nice profit and I had Tatlisu, Four Seasons, right at start of the season before my thread started. I normally start slow , but this season I was flying early on.
Its gone downhill recently though, cant find a winner and confidence low. Just end up questioning everything and cant see the wood for the trees!Gotta stick with it and keep to my way of working and it will pull through at some point….hopefully today!
Flawed argument I’m afraid. Yes, it is the best horse in the race, but there are a number of factors you have to take into account when making your bet, rather than who is best horse.
It’s no different to the like of Silvinacio Conti being brilliant everywhere bar Cheltenham. It beats majority of its opposition at other tracks as it’s the better horse, yet runs at Cheltenham and gets beat by horses it is clearly better than.
On paper Aljamaaher should have been odds on in my book, but a number of potential factors meant it ended up a nice looking price. I didn’t back nor lay it today.
Bad day at the office. A couple of poor selections that I’m disappointed to have made today, confidence was low before they even ran.
Will learn from today.
Thread update +£108
Poor show from today’s selection, just don’t seem to have gone on from 2 to 3.
Thread Update + £468
Saturday 25th April
2.20 Haydock – Gabrials Kaka 2pt EW at 10/1
3.30 Haydock – Rene Mathis 1pt win at 8/1
4.00 Ripon – Angel Gabrial 1pt win 15/2
5.10 Ripon – Flicka’s Boy 2pt win 10/3Hoping Mr Fahey has a very good day tomorrow!
2.20 Haydock – Gabrials Kaka
3.30 Haydock – Rene Mathis
3.40 Leicester – Dark Wave
5.10 Ripon – Flicka’s Boy NAPReserves
Ripon – Angel Gabrial
Sandown – Polly PeachumFriday 24th of April.
Thread Update +£528
Really tricky looking day tomorrow, I was tempted by a handful of horses such as Spring Offensive, Tom Hark in the same race, also Aabir at Donny.
However, just one selection for the day in the 2.50 at Doncaster. An open looking contest. I was quite taken with Edgar Balthazar win last season against the progressive Felix Leiter. It ran very poorly on debut at Pontefract a couple of weeks back, but so did quite a few horses on that card and happy to forget about this run on what was tiring ground.
A couple of lightly raced horses in this who could pose a threat. I quite like Bimbo as a horse but I think it probably needs soft ground, whilst I think Danot is a little over priced at 16s. Happy to give Edgar another chance off what looks a decent mark and back on decent ground.Edgar Balthazar 1pt win 6/1
One selection for Wednesday 22nd of April.
Sennockian Star 1pt Ew in the 3.50 at Epsom at 12/1
I think you have beat the market here Steve, be surprised if he does not go off shorter, closer to 3s I reckon.
Two outsiders catching my eye here. I had Elkaayed down as horse to follow ever since it won its maiden impressively beating Arab Spring. They both went into the notebook after that race, whilst I had to wait a long time for Arab Spring to reappear, it was worth it. However, same cannot be said for Elkaayed! It ran some good races back in 2013 at group level, but last year was a huge disappointment. I just think the ease in grade and rating might give him a chance tomorrow, I think 10f on good to firm is what it wants and I think it may outrun it’s price.
However, my selection is another out of form horse! Sennockian Star Ew for me here, it seems to really like Epsom and I think good to firm is again the key with this horse. I hope it sits prominent tomorrow and kicks early like it has in the past at Epsom. It’s runs in Meydan were average , I thought it’s performance at Chelmsford was better than it looked on face value. Happy to forgive the Pontefract run as horses were finishing very tired and strung out that day, the ground seemed energy sapping and it’s not what this horse wants. I’m never too sure where I am with this yard, but they have a habit of bring horses back to form out of the blue and I think it has most things in its favour tomorrow.
Monday 20th of April – Ante Post Selection
Chester Cup
I have been following the selection for the last 18 months and come close to a nice pay day on a couple of occasions from this horse.
The horse in question is Duke of Clarence. It is on the comeback trail after a minor injury last season, hopefully, it still has the same ability as before the injury when it looked very progressive over distance races.I think about 16f-18f is perfect for this horse and it ran well in this race on debut last season. Looking for a good draw to enable the horse to sit just off the pace, I’m very hopeful of this horse resuming its progression in 2015.
Duke of Clarence – 2pt EW at 16/1
I think Belardo put in a half decent performance on Saturday, but for me it has to have soft ground to have any chance of winning the Guineas. It’s current price should tumble if we have a week of wet weather ahead of the classic.
I’m a little surprised to see no mention of Intilaaq after Saturday’s performance. I accept it was just a maiden, but that was seriously impressive I thought. After sitting on top of a strong pace for 6f, last thing I expected was for it to just power home in the manner it did.
Most eye catching performance of the turf season so far for me. It looks a real prospect.
I think Estidhkaar ran a really good trial race, quite happy with my ante post 20s.
I have only watched the race once and want to review it again today, but my initial thoughts are it set a good pace on the front end. At first, I thought it was gonna pay for it and fade over 1f out when Muhaarar started its run, yet it battled down to give the winner some pressure and was coming back to Muhaara near the line.
We don’t really know how good Muhaarar is,but I would rather be on Estidhkaar for the 2000,Hanagan won’t have to set the fractions at Newmarket and if he adopts his usual approach of tracking the pace, then I fully expect Estidhkaar to be bang there fighting out the finish.
Nice winner with Kelinni doing the business at a nice 8/1 taken last night. Bit frustrating I never backed Bowsen Fred Ew as drifted to 14s to run well in 3rd.
Thread update +£598 so far
2.00 Ayr – Oscar Rock
3.25 Newbury – Highland Colori
4.30 Thirsk – Kelinni NAP
5.05 Thirsk – Bowsen FredReserve
EstidkhaarSaturday 18th of April.
Thread currently stands at +£78
Three selections tomorrow, starting in the Spring Cup at Newbury. Quite a few in this I don’t actually fancy, Gabrial will be dangerous and 6lb rise looks workable, though he is not the most reliable horse to follow up a good performance. Buckstay is solid and likely to run its race. However, selection is Highland Colori for this. Found life difficult at Listed and Group level last season, ran a couple of good races back in handicap company and now back down to a competitive mark. Would prefer this to be 7f rather than a mile, but was won over a mile and versatile ground wise with stable in great form.
Highland Colori 1pt Ew at 20/1
Thirsk 4.30 – I like the look of Kelinni in this, it’s performance at Musselburgh last time needs marking up aa it made good headway from way off the pace, before not seeing the race out over 14f. Travels well in its races and recent drop of a couple of pounds over last 2/3 races will help.
Kelinni 2pt win 8/1
5.05 Thirsk – chance taken on Bowsen Fred in this. Looked progressive last season and I think having a good pace to chase here will suit. Looks on a good mark for the season ahead and hoping the yard have it fully tuned up for tomorrow. Snap Shots could be main danger as has some good pieces of form from last season and pacey type.
Bowden Fred 1pt win 10/1
Thursday 16th of April:
Two selections today at Newmarket.
1pt Moheet in the Craven @ 4/1
1pt Mohatem in the 5.40 @ 7/2Disappointing run from Lady Correspondent yesterday takes the updated thread to +£198
I struggled to find any angle on this race. I think Disegno has achieved the best level of form in the race so far, I was just not convinced it had the scope for improvement stepped up in trip that some others have.
Golden Horn was very impressive on debut last season, but I think is far too short here. I actually like the Godolphin horse Festive Fare and think this could go on to be the best horse in the line up. I just dont have confidence backing their horses, if I am going to back them, I want a decent price on my side. So whilst I think Festive Fare is the likely winner, the 11/4 on offer does not interest me enough to have any bet in the race.
