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The Fielden Stakes saw True Story put up an impressive performance last year and he went into a few ante-post slips for The Derby on the back of it. It didn’t work out for him longer term though.
This year Godolphin have put their faith in Festive Fare, who is a 2/2 after a Lingfield maiden win and a handicap win Kempton. It didn’t look much of a race he won at Kempton and the fact that he was 4/5f probably tells the story. He was early fav in the shows for the race and still looks too short for this, needing more than he has so far shown and running for the first time on turf against others with similar scope. Not for me at about 11/4.
The horse who has taken over as favourite is John Gosden’s Golden Horn, who showed up well when catching a Willie Haggas colt, who had the benefit of a previous run, on his debut. There is obvious scope for improvement with Golden Horn and he holds Guineas and Dante entries. I am a bit surprised he is 2/1 and lower here though, given that he’s facing some horses with better form under their belts. I have to go against him at the odds.
Peacock made a good start when winning his maiden but didn’t quite live up to that and appeared exposed as a little short of top company. He won well enough on his comeback but wasn’t doing any more than was due, with plenty in hand of his opponents on the day and an odds-on SP. He seems a sort of in-between horse and this trip looks a bit extra after his trainer mulling staying at a mile or dropping to 7f after his winning return.
I have decided to go with Michael Stoute’s Disegno for this race. He couldn’t match Kodi Bear for pace in a 7f Listed race after his maiden win at Kempton and a third in a good enough looking Newmarket maiden. Kodi Bear had been 5th in the Coventry before that and finished 2nd in The Dewhurst behind Belardo after that. That leaves Disegno as an interesting prospect and I feel he will make a decent 3yo this year. With Dante and Derby entries you would think this trip should be fine and I feel we are getting decent odds here because Stoute has had a few horses deemed to be needing more time to make their appearance this season. Ryan Moore is on board so he’ll lack nothing from the saddle and the question is whether Stoute has him straight enough. At 5/1 I think it is worth chancing him in this race, with Golden Horn looking mighty short based on a head win in a maiden at Nottingham.
4.40 Newmarket Disegno 5/1 to hopefully blow the Golden Horn.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I struggled to find any angle on this race. I think Disegno has achieved the best level of form in the race so far, I was just not convinced it had the scope for improvement stepped up in trip that some others have.
Golden Horn was very impressive on debut last season, but I think is far too short here. I actually like the Godolphin horse Festive Fare and think this could go on to be the best horse in the line up. I just dont have confidence backing their horses, if I am going to back them, I want a decent price on my side. So whilst I think Festive Fare is the likely winner, the 11/4 on offer does not interest me enough to have any bet in the race.
I struggled to find any angle on this race. I think Disegno has achieved the best level of form in the race so far, I was just not convinced it had the scope for improvement stepped up in trip that some others have.
Golden Horn was very impressive on debut last season, but I think is far too short here. I actually like the Godolphin horse Festive Fare and think this could go on to be the best horse in the line up. I just dont have confidence backing their horses, if I am going to back them, I want a decent price on my side. So whilst I think Festive Fare is the likely winner, the 11/4 on offer does not interest me enough to have any bet in the race.
It’s a tricky race for sure. I just felt I had to take the favourite on at the odds.
Disegno is very weak in the betting this morning, perhaps not surprising given Stoute’s quiet start and some of his horses missing intended trials due to needing more time. He’s touching 8/1 in places, which is a red alert really. Seems like they feel the horse might not be wound up for this but I’ve taken that into account with the confidence level and it’s a speculative selection against the skinny favourite, who may get shorter still if Faydhan wins well.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Change of luck for Gosden with the well backed Golden Horn. Nice performance from him but a promising enough effort from Disegno, who was not supported as if a big run was expected. A bit more time and a bit further won’t go amiss for him and he’s a decent sort I feel.
Godolphin continue to be unable to get the job done it seems.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
do you think (golden Horn) will stay 12F,i am not so sure looking at the family.I hope he goes for the Dante,will give us more of a clue,plus i am up there for my annual pilgrimage to the Knavesmere(love the three days of the Dante meeting)
I thought Peacock was a tad unlucky, he was slightly slow out the gate again which is becoming quite a habit then at the business end stayed on well having to be pulled wide costing him a bit of momentum. That said he had a run already under his belt this year and more experience than Golden Horn so I cant complain about the result.
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do you think (golden Horn) will stay 12F,i am not so sure looking at the family.I hope he goes for the Dante,will give us more of a clue,plus i am up there for my annual pilgrimage to the Knavesmere(love the three days of the Dante meeting)
That’s a tough one to call. As a rough guide I always think that a horse who can win over a mile at two years old can have a good chance of getting 10f but the extra 2f is always a slight question. The fact that he can be held up may help him but I’d like to see him again before making my mind up.
As Nathan says, Peacock acquitted himself well and he’s a decent sort. I do believe that Golden Horn would probably hold him more easily if they met again and I expect Disegno to do better once the Stoute team finally shake off the winter slumber and start getting some winners.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
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