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Yes, before I say anything else I did back the horse.
However, it got beat because of 2 factors, a poor ride and getting blocked in in a 7 horse race with the whole of Leicester to run in.
That is why I dislike flat racing, how many times, I guess in the hundreds, will we see the best horse this season get beat because it was blocked in and couldn’t get out. I don’t mind hard luck stories but you get so many on the flat I will stick to other mediums until the proper racing starts again in October, that’s after the Punchestown festival this week.The horse was drawn 8 against the rail so it was always a possibility he could get in trouble. The jockey had three options imo. jump out quick and make the running, would that have suited the horse?, do what he did and hope the gap appears in time or drop him out early and position him for a move around the outside. Easier said than done and hindsight is a wonderful thing.
Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
Flawed argument I’m afraid. Yes, it is the best horse in the race, but there are a number of factors you have to take into account when making your bet, rather than who is best horse.
It’s no different to the like of Silvinacio Conti being brilliant everywhere bar Cheltenham. It beats majority of its opposition at other tracks as it’s the better horse, yet runs at Cheltenham and gets beat by horses it is clearly better than.
On paper Aljamaaher should have been odds on in my book, but a number of potential factors meant it ended up a nice looking price. I didn’t back nor lay it today.
The horse is far from straight-forward and has been tried at various trips. He’s pretty tricky to catch just right and the reasons he wasn’t odds-on today are the ones I have given and the moderate form of the stable.
Other than runaway winner and potential Guineas supplement Intilaaq, there hasn’t been a lot to shout about from the Varian stable with several running moderately these past three weeks. Decorated Knight was turned over at odds of 4/11 in a Ripon maiden today and looked miles away from a horse entered in the Dante and The Derby.
Aljamaaheer was frustrating last season. Dropped to Sprint distances he finished well a couple of times for third before they taught him to race more freely the next time. He was keen that day but it back-fired, as he actually weakened in the closing stages. Put back up to 7f and with cheek-pieces fitted for the Park Stakes at Doncaster, he went off 2/1 favourite. He was held up in that race before coming through for second but couldn’t close the winner down.
A talented but slightly disappointing sort, he should have been well up to winning today but horses like that always seem to find a way to lose, be it jockey, luck or just a certain lack of will to get the job done.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Paddy Brennan managed to find trouble in running in a six runner chase at Aintree on Grand National day.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Feel sorry for Droffats and other backers of the favourite, would have won with luck in running. However, as Nathan says, Aljamaheer was drawn on the rail and his way of running is to race in rear, or at best mid-div. In truly run affairs the gaps usually come for hold up horses; on the other hand… likely to have problems if slowly run. Was this likely to be truly run? With most of the other runners also hold up horses… Only Coulsty and Majestic Moon could be described as “prominent runners” and Coulsty rarely actually leads. So Majestic Moon was always likely to get a soft lead with little competition for the lead. Knowing draw and running style of all the horses, as Steve rightly says – recent trainer form – and the fact Aljamaheer has not won the number of races you’d expect from one of his ability (often “unlucky in running”). You can understand bookmakers fielding against the favourite. With 33/1 shot Majestic Moon moved from Fahey to Gallagher (negative) am kicking myself for not working the race out!
You can often predict those likely to be “unlucky in running” and those “lucky in running”. Prominent runners in slowly run races are well worth looking out for, giving punters an edge in Flat racing. I took 14/1 Master Apprentice on Friday, primarily because he was the obvious pace angle and had speed at a shorter distance; so could kick from the front and be difficult to catch. With Andrew Balding in such good form another positive.
Value Is EverythingAmazed that there wasn’t an immediate announcement of a stewards enquiry. While there is one mentioned on the BHA website was this before the weigh in as it should have been?
There was no mention on ATR and the betting didn’t re-open on Betfair
Yes, Aljamaheer was the class horse in the race.
However, he has a poor strike-rate, it was a fairly small-field race and he’s best held-up (with not much other pace in the race), and this was always likely to be a pipe-opener (horse has a poor record fresh, has some bigger race entries later in the season and yard not in great form).
Really, people who backed him at ashort price have no-one to blame but themselves.
“No-one to blame but themselves” is a bit strong imo Matt. The OP suggests this is a reason not to bet on the Flat; but it’s just like backing a known dodgy jumper over fences. I would not criticise anyone for backing Aljamaheer as long as they considered the odds worth the risk of luck in running. When it’s going well and “falls” at the last I’m afraid it’s just one of those things.
Value Is EverythingI would have to disagree entirely with droffats. Just how exciting was the race and races like this are surely a positive for flat racing. Do we really want horses running in lanes?
Of course not much fun if you backed the desperately unlucky fav but sometimes you will be lucky, sometimes unlucky.
Variety is the spice of life and races like this are part and parcel of a great sport, thankfully.Aljamaheer is a quirky sod at the best of times, he almost certainly has not won as many races as he could because of his temperament. As others state he is often going to need luck in running, you have to accept that with him.
Whatever the characteristics of the horse in question here, I’m with droffats on the core point. If I had the resources, I’d happily spend time researching a large sample of races, with more than 10 runners, of up to a mile. I watch very few flat races, but often see horses in races at shortish trips (and a fair few longer ones) not getting through at crucial points.
Admittedly, it’s likely that my perception is skewed as the events I watch are often highly competitive with plenty runners.
Maybe one of you data guys with Raceform can take a look at numbers based on ‘not clear run’ and ‘unlucky’ in the comments section?
I watch a lot of races up to a mile and I would say Aljamaheer’s are few and far between, often a runner may find trouble in running just because that’s the way the cards fall, depending on draw, field size and course characteristics among some reasoning.
If you look through Aljahameers profile, the amount of times ‘raced keenly’ will appear in his profile will give quite a big clue to his temperament, if you can find a video watch his performance in the 2012 Celebration Mile at Goodwood, a great example of a horse trying his best not to win. He is quirky, quirky as they come and this cannot be ignored when considering whether to back him our not.
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