2000 guineas 2015

Nathan Hughes wrote:

Hannon has supposedly said Estidhkaar will win the guineas after his performance yesterday.
I’m guessing he’s left plenty to work with and expects the horse to come on a bundle for the run out.

That’s a bold statement when you don’t know how well Gleneagles has been working at home.

I was impressed with Estidhkaar’s effort yesterday. I always worry about a horse with an injury in its history then running on rattling fast ground. It was soft when he ran behind Belardo in the Dewhurst and also soft when he was beaten 4l as the 5/4f on his debut, so on that front it was probably no surprise to see him suited by a sound surface. All being well, he should have a decent chance at Newmarket.

Looking at the Greenham, it probably wasn’t as strong a renewal as it perhaps looked on paper beforehand. Ivawood had questions after disappointing in the Middle Park and the fact was that he was a big, precocious looking sort as a juvenile. He’d probably done most of his growing last year and you just wonder if he’s progressed much from two to three. The Hannon team are still expecting him to improve for this run and the Guineas is still his target but confidence must be seriously dented after this show, despite their statement that they haven’t lost faith.

Muhaarar was a little bit in and out last year and his narrow Gimcrack win was probably his best run. I didn’t think he’d be quite good enough and I am just wondering if the Greenham has been more like a sprint race in the lightning fast conditions this year. Belardo was all at sea for sure and Aiden O’Brien’s Dick Whittington ran as if he was taken off his feet early, before making some late headway. You would need to think that he’s 3rd or 4th string in the O’Brien camp and he’s run a fair sighter for the bigger guns here. I’m not 100% sure that a mile will play to Muhaarar’s strengths at Newmarket.

Quite why Flaming Spear was the price he was for the race, and the Guineas, after only a York maiden win, was a bit of a mystery. He gave a quick impersonation of a bucking bronco before going into the stalls and that was about as lively as he looked before finishing in last place. Any dream they had with him was surely shaken into a state of awakening and his sights need to be seriously lowered.

John Gosden’s Fannaan was eerily weak for the 2000 Guineas a couple of weeks ago, touching over 300/1 on Betfair. With Richard Pankhurst’s injury, he perhaps stepped forward as a substitute and his Guineas odds stabilised. I had concerns for him on yesterday’s going and he finished behind the 50/1 outsider in the end. Nothing to suggest the Guineas is worth going for with him.

Toocoolforschool is a likeable sort but he looks a sprinter to me and his best runs last year came with cut. Under the circumstances he has run a great race and I think he’ll make his mark somewhere this season when conditions are optimal. I’m a little surprised he’s not in the betting for the Commonwealth Cup, as I feel he could be competitive in the new 3yo only group 1 Sprint at Royal Ascot, and, as a gelding, he can’t run in the Classics.

Estidhkaar looks the one to take from the race for me but I wouldn’t be confident of collecting on the win side of an each-way bet.

I’ve been looking at Vert de Grece and Salateen today; are they both likely to run?

seethesun wrote:

I’m a little surprised to see no mention of Intilaaq after Saturday’s performance. I accept it was just a maiden, but that was seriously impressive I thought. After sitting on top of a strong pace for 6f, last thing I expected was for it to just power home in the manner it did.

Most eye catching performance of the turf season so far for me. It looks a real prospect.

Intilaaq was seriously impressive and looks group material on this showing. Hard to say what he actually beat at this stage but it was a performance that oozed class.

What made it even better for me was that the Varian stable have not been going great guns and this was only their second winner of the month. Most of their recent runners, including some yesterday, have run modestly and Intilaaq has bucked that trend in good style.

Bookmakers were impressed enough to cut him for Guineas and Derby. It must be noted that he isn’t actually entered in the 2000 Guineas, so Stan James quote of 16/1 should be carefully considered as a prospect for a bet because he would need to be supplemented.

He does hold entries for the Dante and The Derby though and he varies between 14/1 and 25/1 for that race. The former odds look very tight to me on the back of a maiden win, particularly when you consider that hot favourite for the Guineas Gleneagles, who was added to the Derby field, is 20/1 for the race.

Certainly an interesting horse to see next time though.

mickeyjp wrote:

As more and more of last years top 2yos go by the wayside the path is open for an as yet un heralded horse to come through.it doesn’t help that thevgoingbis heavy in Ireland and good in England making any form comparisons very difficult to evaluate, the value bet in the guineas is highland reel to me but wouldn’t be surprised if one emerged from the unexposed horses.

I liked the look of Highland Reel at two. He won his maiden by twelve lengths and, even against trees that doesn’t happen very often, especially when the ground is on the fast side. The third horse beat John F Kennedy and then finished closer to Gleneagles in defeat twice, than he got to Highland Reel. The fourth horse also won a race next time.

Highland Reel made good headway when winning his maiden and he looked green when he got to the front, his head went up in the air and he hung across but, despite that, he kept pulling further away for as facile a success as you could wish for.

I was a little surprised he dropped back in trip, especially at a track like Goodwood but he had the look of class about him and I expected he would win as long as the jockey made enough use of him. He ran out a cosy winner of The Vintage Stakes but for all that it was a Group 2, the fact that a maiden winner went off 10/11f tells that it might have lacked depth.

The big worry for me is that no winners have come from that race and 16 of the runs since that race subsequently have seen unplaced efforts. The third horse’s run in the Gimcrack is the sole solid looking bit of form to come from the race. Funnily enough, Ivawood’s Richmond form, also at Goodwood, has an almost identical look, with no winners and 16 unplaced efforts from 19 starts.

The step back to a mile would help Highland Reel you would think, as a winner over a mile at two, but you have to wonder about the apparent confidence behind his stable mate and the favourite Gleneagles.

I’m still hoping Hannon will keep Kool Kompany in the Guineas at Newmarket as he’s also entered in the Irish 2000 Guineas. My moneys down after The Craven and he deserves his chance also he’s the only horse that I’ve seen in the flesh and can guarantee he is fit and well, the race took nothing out of him at all.
Another poser for Richard Hughes if Hannon is going to be triple or even four handed in the race.

Having watched the Greenham I wouldn’t be backing Estidhkaar for the 2000 Guineas, he’s not raced beyond 7furlongs and I’m not sure he will cope with the stiff uphill finish at Newmarket that caught Kingman out last year.

AOB could have something up his sleeve but as usual he’s keeping his cards very close to his chest.

Knowing what a tricky course the Rowley Mile is I’m sticking with Kool Kompany He’s already proved that he can step up to a mile really well and Richard Hughes said that ‘he killed them at The Bushes‘ that is praise indeed only wish he would take the ride..come on Kool Jac

IanDavies wrote:

Intilaaq won easily in a decent time and his manner of victory suggested miler not middle distance horse to me.

He’s not in the Guineas but is in the Derby but I have noticed that these Hamdan Al Maktoum colts seem to be entered in the Derby as a matter of course. Maybe he gets a bulk discount.

The quote about Estidhkaar wasn’t misheard. One of the C4 team – I thought it was Cunningham but it might have been Harding – seemed at pains to emphasise the importance of Hannon’s words. “Richard Hannon says Estidhkaar will win the Guineas.” I might go to 4od to check it again.

I took Estidhkaar at 25/1 after it won last summer (good rating backed up by a good time) and went in again on Saturday morning at the same price in anticipation of a win. Disappointed he didn’t win so Hannon’s comment certainly caught my attention and he appears to have developed quite an impetus in the market.

The bummer is that I also had him in an each-way double with Cursory Glance (20/1) for the 1000G.

I read elsewhere that Hannon’s horses are all running as though they will improve a lot for their debut but there’s no doubt Estidhkaar is bred to be much better when he gets to race further. I reckon it’s as much to do with that as Hannon’s comments. While I agree it isn’t always the most prudent thing to do to follow a trainer’s remark, I think you have to put the remark into some kind of context.

Would I set any store by anything Tony Martin or Michael Stoute or Johnjo O’Neill said? No.

But when was the last time Hannon said something as categorical that turned out not to be the case. Last year when pressed about the relative merits of Ivawood and Estidkhaar he seemed genuinely unable to split them when everyone was apparently pushing for him to nominate Ivawood. He eventually said something along the lines of Ivawood being a horse for now while Estidhkaar was always going to be much better at three.

Well, surely they’ll only look stupid if he doesn’t win? In the meantime they’re maybe better described as optimistic.

I don’t recall Hannon using such strength of opinion regarding his previous Guineas runners, and he’s been involved with quite a few winners of the race.

Estidhkaar might not have the form in the book but what else does? And, having been involved with previous winners of the race, I would imagine he has a fair idea of what it takes to win it.