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Hard to believe it but the Lincoln Handicap is only 11 days away now.
This season the market is headed by William Haggas’ Mange All, followed by conqueror and old pal of mine G M Hopkins. Michael Stoute’s Munaaser is also prominent and also has form with those two horses.
At this early stage I am interested in Baraweez who was a good improver last year. He took my eye at 33/1 as something to start from. He was making good progress last year but when I did him in The Cambridgeshire the extra furlong and soft ground went right against him. Reported in good form by his trainer Brian Ellison the race is his definite target and he’s high enough rated to be sure of a run.
G M Hopkins did a few of us a favour when he got his career back on track for John Gosden. A shade disappointing next time he’s a horse with injury in his history and maybe he could go best fresh. There has been support for him this week.
Old handicap specialist Bronze Angel is in there but he’ll have to shoulder top weight after his exploits last season.
The fascinating contender for me is Mondialiste, who used to be trained by Freddy Head in France. He once ran behind Havana Gold in the Prix Jean Prat at huge odds. He won his last race narrowly at Saint Cloud and was sold last summer for 190,000 Euros to go to David O’Meara. Unraced since last May he’s in the hands of a master at improving other people’s horses and he could easily be better than his handicap in time.
Maybe it’s just my imagination but the profile wouldn’t go amiss as the scenario for a plot and although intentions are not known by me, I feel he could be worth considering at 25/1 as one of the more interesting ones.
Baraweez 33/1
Mondialiste 25/1
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
G M Hopkins did a few of us a favour when he got his career back on track for John Gosden. A shade disappointing next time he’s a horse with injury in his history and maybe he could go best fresh. There has been support for him this week.
I think the key to this race lies in the ‘Silver Cambridgeshire’ at Newmarket myself.Why ‘Mange all’ is fav can only be based on the ‘Haggas’ will run factor as I believe the winner is GM Hopkins now 12/1 2nd fav,the trouble there though is the reason he’s not the fav is simply the fact Gosden could pull him out at the start if he thinks the winds blowing the wrong way! I cant see a reverse of form if both turn up and the other horse to take form the Newmarket race ‘Munaaser’ 16/1 also looks a solid e/w bet as all 3 will love a galloping mile,having said that I reckon ‘Mange all’ might just get outpaced and stay on late for a place.The Stoute horse wont be a 16/1 shot either if he’s confirmed and again I see no reason why he wont run.Thats the Tricast done then.
<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>stevecaution wrote:</div>
G M Hopkins did a few of us a favour when he got his career back on track for John Gosden. A shade disappointing next time he’s a horse with injury in his history and maybe he could go best fresh. There has been support for him this week.I think the key to this race lies in the ‘Silver Cambridgeshire’ at Newmarket myself.Why ‘Mange all’ is fav can only be based on the ‘Haggas’ will run factor as I believe the winner is GM Hopkins now 12/1 2nd fav,the trouble there though is the reason he’s not the fav is simply the fact Gosden could pull him out at the start if he thinks the winds blowing the wrong way! I cant see a reverse of form if both turn up and the other horse to take form the Newmarket race ‘Munaaser’ 16/1 also looks a solid e/w bet as all 3 will love a galloping mile,having said that I reckon ‘Mange all’ might just get outpaced and stay on late for a place.The Stoute horse wont be a 16/1 shot either if he’s confirmed and again I see no reason why he wont run.Thats the Tricast done then.
That’s the race I referred to above Gord.
GM Hopkins was a horse I thought might be Group class in time but he had an awful run on his second career start after running a fast finishing fourth to Richard Hannon’s Championship on his debut. He won in good style at Newmarket and then went off 6/4F next time before slightly disappointing. In his defence it was softer ground at York and although he had won on the ground before, it was in a maiden race. He ran once more, and again was beaten favourite but it was Guy Fawkes Night and perhaps that late in the season his sparkle had gone. If they keep his powder dry he could be a Lincoln Plot.
Gosden’s horse was 16/1 early doors and I might have been tempted but, as you say, if his breakfast wasn’t quite right one morning, it could be a bad omen and the horse will head elsewhere. GM Hopkins won on 9th April on his first run of the season last year, so that’s encouraging that he’ll be ripe enough at the end of March this year.
Stoute’s horse will have his backers purely on the “master at improving older horses” maxim and Willie Haggas seems to have legions of followers in these big handicaps. I wouldn’t mind betting now that Timeform will give Mange All the five star rating in their race day preview, alongside a comment along the lines of “In the right hands”, the horse will go off 4/1f and finish out of the frame.
What odds will anyone give me on this
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
My two against the field so far are Gabrial’s Kaka (20/1) and Penitent (33/1)…
Pointless looking at anything 95 and under so cuts a lot out…boy, when did the Lincoln get to the stage of having 18 runners rated over 100 still declared less than a couple of weeks before!
Gabrial’s Kaka 6th in it last year and 7lbs higher this but Still looks capable to me off that mark….was unlucky at Ascot behind Bronze Angel on his last run, being on the ‘wrong’ side….Fahey looks to have his string in fine form and is sure to be one that’s fully tuned up…
Penitent just a token each way bet in the hope we might get soft ground…not getting any younger of course and won this a few year ago now…but with the magician that is David O’Meara I definitely wouldn’t rule out his chances in this off (104) if conditions are soft….as old as he is he still showed last year on a few occasions he’s not finished yet…
Was really impressed with Hillbilly Boy last year, and he did me a favour a few times. Very happy with his comeback run over a mile at the weekend, and I’d be very hopeful of a decent run for my money at 33’s each way.
I notice Gary Nutting on ATR has daringly put the favourite up at 8/1 as one of his picks. The 8/1 is gone now and 7/1 is the best left. GM Hopkins has dried up to 10/1 best price now. They’ll probably go off 4/1 and 6/1 on the day knowing the “How low can you go” Bookies and the “How short can I take and still look a mug” Punters.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I’m with you VTC…impressed with his prep race on Saturday….Hillbilly Boy 33/1 each way
There are I0 types of people in the world, those who understand binary and those who don't
Michael Stoute’s Munaaser is out of The Lincoln. The trainer said the horse is not forward enough to take his place in the line up.
My old pal GM Hopkins seems stronger for money now than Mange All. Best price is now 9/1 on the Gosden horse and as low as 6/1 in a place. At this rate he’ll be the warm favourite on the day.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Michael Stoute’s Munaaser is out of The Lincoln. The trainer said the horse is not forward enough to take his place in the line up.
My old pal GM Hopkins seems stronger for money now than Mange All. Best price is now 9/1 on the Gosden horse and as low as 6/1 in a place. At this rate he’ll be the warm favourite on the day.
Fair play to Sir Michael for letting us know now about ‘Munaaser’,although he was 22’s on the machine which is always the first and most accurate alarm call.As for GM Hopkins I cant believe he hasn’t been fav all year for this as ‘Mange all’ wont reverse Newmarket form with this sprightly fellow.Of course one must never count their chickens with one of Gosdens as he could be 4/1 fav next Saturday but if his Trainer thinks someone has left a footprint in the hallowed Doncaster turf before his horse runs on it..He’s out!
I am interested in Ed Dunlop’s Red Avenger which has won off 96 and is on 98 and has had a blow out on the all weather. And at a push What About Carlo if the ground comes up half decent!! Both about 25/1 and could be worth a few quid each way!!
I hadn’t given the flat a thought until today, when I read the thread for the Lincoln. It’s always a bit of lucky dip, and as I don’t like betting favourites, it’s my kind of race with half of the winners in the past ten years starting at odds of 20/1 and above. I did well out of Brae Hill’s win 3 years ago and his place the following year, and last year I got a good run out of Robert The Painter at decent odds in 3rd. I would be tempted to have a couple of quid on Robert The Painter (33/1) again this year were it not for the fact that no 7 year old has won this since 1987. He has been out in Dubai for the past couple of months, so he should have enjoyed decent weather at least and should be fit enough, but as I said, his age is against him. I might have a couple of quid e/w in case he defies the stats, he doesn’t owe me anything anyway.
What’s the chances of Lincoln winning the Lincoln? Certainly a progressive 4 year old, who has winning form at Doncaster. Although he has never run over a mile, which in my book would normally rule him out for a cavalry charge like the Lincoln, he has won his last couple of races at Doncaster and Chester looking as if he could improve for the extra furlong. A bit speculative I agree, but at 25/1 I think it’s worth the gamble.
Lastly, I’m rowing in with VTC and Johnny-B on Hillbilly Boy. I have to admit it’s not because I was a fan of his, or even knew about him, it’s just that after him being put forward by VTC, whose choices are always worth a second glance, I’ve given him the once over and can see why he makes a bit of appeal. I thought I would grab the last remaining 33s with Betvictor, as his odds seem to be tumbling today. I hope I haven’t put “the black spot” on him for you guys with my money on him too.
Best of luck.
I hadn’t given the flat a thought until today, when I read the thread for the Lincoln. It’s always a bit of lucky dip, and as I don’t like betting favourites, it’s my kind of race with half of the winners in the past ten years starting at odds of 20/1 and above. I did well out of Brae Hill’s win 3 years ago and his place the following year, and last year I got a good run out of Robert The Painter at decent odds in 3rd. I would be tempted to have a couple of quid on Robert The Painter (33/1) again this year were it not for the fact that no 7 year old has won this since 1987. He has been out in Dubai for the past couple of months, so he should have enjoyed decent weather at least and should be fit enough, but as I said, his age is against him. I might have a couple of quid e/w in case he defies the stats, he doesn’t owe me anything anyway.
What’s the chances of Lincoln winning the Lincoln? Certainly a progressive 4 year old, who has winning form at Doncaster. Although he has never run over a mile, which in my book would normally rule him out for a cavalry charge like the Lincoln, he has won his last couple of races at Doncaster and Chester looking as if he could improve for the extra furlong. A bit speculative I agree, but at 25/1 I think it’s worth the gamble.
Lastly, I’m rowing in with VTC and Johnny-B on Hillbilly Boy. I have to admit it’s not because I was a fan of his, or even knew about him, it’s just that after him being put forward by VTC, whose choices are always worth a second glance, I’ve given him the once over and can see why he makes a bit of appeal. I thought I would grab the last remaining 33s with Betvictor, as his odds seem to be tumbling today. I hope I haven’t put “the black spot” on him for you guys with my money on him too.
Best of luck.
I remember Brae Hill doing a few folk a favour in previous runnings. He was a horse I could never catch at the right time.
The Lincoln has always been my bogey race and it took many goes for me to land the winner. Usually just a race for a couple of quid each way, I broke my duck with a “pushing the boat out” £20 win on Barry Hills’ Pablo.
When I used to manage a betting shop the year we were carved up was when Hunters Of Brora won in 1998. The name was for a clothing company based near Brora, which is a Highland town who are the football rivals of my own town Wick, which lies further north. Punters wired in to the local connection and we took a bit of a pumping, similar to the one we took when Wick Pound won an egg and spoon race at big odds some years earlier.
Back to this years race and I feel the negative with Hillbilly Boy is the trip. Most of his form is at shorter and although he has won at a mile, it was in a four runner claimer a while back. On the plus side his recent 3rd was over a mile and that’s probably the best show he has put up over the 8f, which is of some encouragement.
Still, a big field and the pace that is likely, will make it a test of his reserves. On the plus side he’s won at the track and he’s a stone better horse than this time last year. I am assuming there was a problem after his run on fast ground at Royal Ascot and that is why there was a spell on the sidelines. Is there the possibility of a bounce?
Enough things to like about the horse at the odds but that distance question seems to stand out a bit to me in a cavalry charge.
Good luck to all.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Welcome aboard G, was good to see him blue across the board on Oddschecker yesterday. Don’t worry about the “black spot”……I’m capable enough of jinxing them myself haha
<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>BigG wrote:</div>
Lastly, I’m rowing in with VTC and Johnny-B on Hillbilly Boy. I have to admit it’s not because I was a fan of his, or even knew about him, it’s just that after him being put forward by VTC, whose choices are always worth a second glance, I’ve given him the once over and can see why he makes a bit of appeal. I thought I would grab the last remaining 33s with Betvictor, as his odds seem to be tumbling today. I hope I haven’t put “the black spot” on him for you guys with my money on him too.Welcome aboard G, was good to see him blue across the board on Oddschecker yesterday. Don’t worry about the “black spot”……I’m capable enough of jinxing them myself haha
Lets hope none of us are jinxed VTC. At this point anyway I’m glad you put him up, and I’m glad I grabbed the 33s yesterday (or early this morning), best price on offer now 20/1. Lets hope we’re all smiling ear to ear when he strolls into the winners enclosure……or am I getting ahead of myself (pretty much a big failing of mine)
My 3 are GM Hopkins, mindurownbusiness (if good and head wind) and gabrial (if give and headwind)
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