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Have a Minding Guineas-Oaks double going atm, so I’m all Minding today. I think Ryan Moore is spot on in his analysis. Her preparation is far from ideal and there are slight doubts about whether she will stay, but who exactly in there is supposed to beat her. Even if she runs at 85% of her ability, she should still have enough to beat these.
The only danger, if any, is Skiffle. She is the only one in there who is unexposed enough to be a potential Group 1 filly. It’s still very much guesswork as how good she is, so she could potentially be just about be anything. The rest of them are pretty much known quantities and I would be very surprised be any of them will prove to be Group 1 fillies in the future. They are running for places in my opinion unless Minding flops Dawn Approach-style, which I don’t really see happening.
Minding and Skiffle are the only two bets I can think of in this one.
Thanks ap. Shame really, genuinely thought she would be one of the main players in the fillies and mares division this year.
Midterm looks like a soft ground horse to me. His action was already worrying at Sandown, and he didn’t look comfortable today.
No need for Minding now in the Derby I would think. AOB must know exactly where he stands now based on Deauville’s run. If US Army Ranger is indeed better than him as they seem to think, then the winner is quite likely to come out of the Chester Vase. But, even if not, I would hardly write off the possibility that Deauville could turn the form around with Wings Of Desire. It was his first run of the season, had a fairly tough trip racing without cover outside the leader and was in front for a very long time on a longer final straight than Epsom. It’s perfectly possible for AOB to win the Derby without Minding, and he will need her if he is to win the Oaks which is going Gosden’s way otherwise.
On a similar note, anyone know if the Gosden-trained French Dressing is still in training? Thought she could be one of the revelations of this season.
Hoping to see my 100/1 Derby punt Housesofparliament earn a day out at Epsom. The jockey bookings don’t look too promising, but we all saw what nearly happened yesterday and at 100/1 not much to lose.
Aidan will run Minding in the Derby, be very surprised if he dosent. Best horse in the race with the most experience and will get weight. Absolute certainty.
I doubt it personally. It’s far more valuable for Coolmore to win it with a colt. A Derby win is the making of a stallion prospect, and this is a very winnable Derby. Midterm and Galileo Gold are the shortest non-Coolmore horses in the betting and they are hardly sure things. They just need one of US Army Ranger, Idaho, The Gurkha, Housesofparliament or even the Gosden-trained Royal Artillery to win well in their Derby trial and Minding will be confirmed as a definite Oaks runner. And, even if they all flop, it’s still not a certainty that Minding runs the Derby as we saw last year despite all the rumours about Found and Legatissimo.
That said, as you can back Minding with a run, I would not discourage anyone from backing her as she would be a quite likely winner if she lines up.
Ante-Post nightmare this race!
I actually think it’s one of the most obvious Oaks in years. Only way I can imagine Minding not winning this is if she goes for the Derby instead. Only remaining danger could be her stablemate that runs in the Cheshire Oaks tomorrow, Somehow, but she will have to produce something truly special to affect Minding’s position at the top of the market.
Well, no Derby trial entries for Bhutan it seems.
Really disappointed with that. I know Aidan said he’s very lazy on the gallops but surely his maiden showed that he might be one of those that blossom on a racetrack instead. Seems like it’s going to be Royal Ascot for him.Anyway, instead, I just had a flutter on the horse he beat that day and who has come out and win impressively since. Housesofparliament at 100/1, you know it makes sense!
As Steve, I’m on the Minding Guineas-Oaks double, and like Steve I also believe we are successfully over the tougher half of that bet. I was quite impressed with Swiss Range win in the Pretty Polly (more so than So Mi Dar’s win) and I’m very keen to see how Somehow runs at Chester, but I would be very surprised if there was a better filly than Minding out there. I’m not convinced Ballydoyle will face Minding again. IMO, its gonna be French 1000 Guineas (Alice Springs), Irish 1000, Prix De Diane (Ballydoyle) and Oaks (Minding, Somehow), but this is of course just guesswork at the moment.
Same 1-2 as the Fillies Mile for me. Minding is clearly the best filly in the race in my mind, good or bad ground. However, the fact that Ballydoyle runs here rather than in France contrary to original plans does raise some doubt about Minding’s fitness. The Oaks is arguably the main target for her and Aidan’s record of Oaks fillies starting off in the Guineas doesn’t read great. But, if no fitness issues, she’s the one to beat.
Still, I’m just gonna wait and see how the earlier races pan out. That tail wind was really problematic for backmarkers yesterday.
I’m as confused about Air Force Blue as you are LD. Whether he hasn’t trained on, had an off-day or just had some issue of some sort is difficult to say. But, I genuinely hope they don’t pull some PR injury stunt to save his stallion prospects as someone mentioned previously and do instead give him another chance. There were too many incomprehensible performances over the card today to write him off completely yet (see Jack Hobbs and Cymric, who had beaten both Galileo Gold and Massaat last year and was pulled up today after appearing to be travelling like a dream). I also refuse to accept that Marcel, AFB and Stormy Antarctic were the worst three horses in that field. Really think a lot of horses didn’t run to their true value today for whatever reason.
Tail wind not going to help the hold up horses.
Good call. Turned out to be very much the case, even though I think the best horse on the day did win. But, might help explain some of the backmarkers’ poor runs.
What a brilliant young trainer Hugo Palmer is btw. All his top horses just seem to have this great tactical speed and just don’t when to stop. A superb combination. Gifted Master, Covert Love, Home Of The Brave, Galileo Gold, all very similar profile.
Daft question but is the O’Brien 2nd string purely there to help AFB win?
They are drawn well apart, so if that was the original plan, it’s probably off the cards now. Personally, I think this is just a prep run for something like the French or Irish Guineas. He was originally entered in the Leopardstown trial but being a fast-ish ground horse, was scratched from that one.
Really disappointed with that. I know Aidan said he’s very lazy on the gallops but surely his maiden showed that he might be one of those that blossom on a racetrack instead. Seems like it’s going to be Royal Ascot for him.