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This to me looks like on of if not THE poorest Oaks in memory!!
Surely if Minding is not to much inconvenienced by the Irish Guineas then she will dot up!!
You can actually make a case for none of them winning!!
Everything I backed has been a non runner which was fortunate considering I backed all three NRNB so as a last resort I am going to back Turret Rocks and Harlequeen e/w to small stakes and shake my head at the poor turnout for this race!!
This race revolves around whether or not you want to take evs on Minding getting the trip. If she does she surely wins. Some doubts in her pedigree but she did win over a mile as a two year old staying on well which points strongly to her getting the trip.
Then again I can’t get excited about backing horses at evs in any race let alone classics, so will probably have a play on Skiffle each way, think she is nailed on for the first three as she is progressive and bound to improve for stepping up in distance. Only slight concern is whether she’ll handle the track but she trapped around Goodwood well enough.
The other option is to leave the race alone altogether, but I can’t do that, it’ a classic!
I’ve got a feeling that Minding won’t stay.
Backed Skiffle.
The reason I don’t think Minding will stay is because she showed so much brilliance in her 1000 guineas win at Newmarket, for me it raises huge questions that she will stay a mile and a half.
I know earlier I said she stayed a mile as a two year old so should have no problems getting the trip, but when you think about it, horses like Oh So Sharp, Kazzia and so on, did they have their guineas field blown apart at half way like Minding did?
Food for thought.
Minding has the best form by far, but not certain to stay. Wins at a mile by showing speed rather than stamina and despite being by Galileo dam was a pure miler. Knocked her head in Irish 1000 Guineas and 2nd wouldn’t worry me if there were longer between races, but it was run in soft ground. I’ve noticed over the years, after a quick turn around fewer horses give keep their form when the first run is on soft/heavy. This also Minding’s third run in 5 weeks all at Group 1 level, asking a lot. Did me a favour at Newmarket and she’s a favourite of mine, but needs opposing at the price.
Turret Rocks may have a lot of form at the top level, but that if anything is a negative for me. Her form is established as not good enough to win anything like an average Oaks. Doesn’t run as if likely to improve for a step up in trip either and I’d have doubts about the ground if on the soft side.
Skiffle only had her debut a month ago and then won a listed race. Staying on really well once realising what was needed. Her form is not far behind the best of the rest and could have a lot of improvement in her. Not run on a soft surface, but did not look like one that needs a sound surface at Goodwood. Stable form a big positive. Really like her chance.
Somehow looked as green as a cabbage at Chester, got behind before storming through. Needs to learn a lot from that experience, but if doing so could progress in to a good filly. Has form on soft ground. More stamina the better for her, but will team Coolmore want a truly run race? Slower the better for Minding.
Architecture comes from an excellent stable but can’t see why she should be almost half the price of the filly who beat her in the Lingfield Oaks. Form shouldn’t be quite good enough but at 21/1 Seventh Heaven is currently over-priced on Betfair. If the Coolmore fav were a staying sort I wouldn’t be backing what might be their “pacemaker”, but could get a softish lead unless Cheshire Oaks 3rd Diamonds Pour Moi goes on. Latter isn’t out of it, comes from the Beckett stable and is improving, but needs a lot more here.
Harlequeen is one at a big price. Considering pulled hard in the early stages finished well for 4th in Musidora, showing improved form. If doing the same here won’t stay, but if settling could show much better form. Has soft ground form too. Stable don’t seem in great form, but there must be negatives with an outsider.
Australian Queen doesn’t look good enough.
I’d advise backing Harlequeen and Seventh Heaven with savers on Skiffle and Somehow.
Value Is EverythingLooking back at Minding in the Fillies Mile last season and it’s not speed that wins the day for her.
You can watch the race here:-
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sfAZfL419Bc
She settles in behind them and if you watch Ryan Moore he has his hands off the back of her neck far enough from home and he gets into the push from quite a way out. It’s not immediate by any means and it’s not until the final furlong that she starts to put daylight between herself and Nathra. To me she finishes the race off better than anything else and had it been 10F that day, she would have won by plenty in my opinion.
The biggest worry I have is whether they blew her chance with the trip to the Irish Guineas. That was a foolish move in my opinion. Had she come here fresh I would have been ultra confident that class would see her through.
I can’t back anything else in the race regardless of the price.
Minding should come there swinging and she’s the class act by miles here. As I say, she looked to be flying along at the end of last season’s fillies mile and I would probably take evens if I wasn’t already on the double at 8/1 and again at 6/4 and 13/8.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Bolger said of Turret Rocks: “Basically she’s an Oaks filly for next year and I was very happy with her run”
After beaten by Ballydoyle in French G1
“I have to put my hands up and admit I left her a bit short for Newmarket, but that race will have set her up nicely and I couldn’t be be happier with her,” Bolger said.
After Newmarket 1000 Guineas
How Minding is not 1/6 is beyond me! That is an awful class 5 race. 6/5 is an unbelievable price. I’ve got a serious amount of money on her. Not even an inch nervous.
How Minding is not 1/6 is beyond me! That is an awful class 5 race. 6/5 is an unbelievable price. I’ve got a serious amount of money on her. Not even an inch nervous.
If I were you Goreisking, I’d wait if backing Minding. Can see the price going out to at least 6/4 by mid morning.
Value Is EverythingBet Minding ante-post. I’ll add Skiffle based on my untested ‘system’ for supplementaries, and have a wee bit on Turret Rocks too
Well I have already got a lot of money on Minding, if she loses she loses but I just cant visualize her getting beat in this appalling race!
6/4 for Minding is a gift.
There is ridiculous value all around her in this race and I had to step in again when she hit the 6/4 this morning.
All my eggs are in the one basket here but I just can’t bring myself to entertain the idea of a saver.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Looking forward to this but not betting.
I’d be worried if Minding gets drawn into a battle, She looked for all the world to be getting past Jet Setting and at this longer trip wont want it to be to tough.
Seventh Heaven looks about the value at 25’s, guaranteed to stay and shouldn’t be any bigger than the Palmer horse imo.
I would love to see Harlequeen run a big race purely because Canford Cliffs is the Daddy.Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
I think Minding will win this a minute. It’s a dismal Oaks other than the favourite and she can run way below her best and win.
Hard to oppose Minding, I will be watching with interest as to whether she stays. I’d like to see another Guineas-Oak double; it’s been a while since Kazzia.
I have a bit on Diamonds Pour Moi each way but I’m not overconfident. Looking forward to the race.
Have a Minding Guineas-Oaks double going atm, so I’m all Minding today. I think Ryan Moore is spot on in his analysis. Her preparation is far from ideal and there are slight doubts about whether she will stay, but who exactly in there is supposed to beat her. Even if she runs at 85% of her ability, she should still have enough to beat these.
The only danger, if any, is Skiffle. She is the only one in there who is unexposed enough to be a potential Group 1 filly. It’s still very much guesswork as how good she is, so she could potentially be just about be anything. The rest of them are pretty much known quantities and I would be very surprised be any of them will prove to be Group 1 fillies in the future. They are running for places in my opinion unless Minding flops Dawn Approach-style, which I don’t really see happening.
Minding and Skiffle are the only two bets I can think of in this one.
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