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I’m glad to see ARCHITECTURE stands her ground, I thought the 20/1 I took
a while back was over generous, and with the field cutting up, I’m surprised
to see that Ladbrokes and Coral still have her at 14/1, that has to be very
decent value.I could be proved very wrong, but I don’t fancy Minding. As I mentioned a week ago,
I can’t believe that what Minding was needing was a hard race in the Irish 1000 Guineas
less than 2 weeks before such an important race as this. O’Brien hasn’t had things work
out as well for him as he would have liked this year, and I think he has another
disappointment on the cards.I think Architecture, with the bonus of Hugo Palmer and Dettori in her corner, should be
vying for 2nd favouritism behind Minding, and she won’t be far off that come Friday.Diamonds pour moi cut to 33s. I did fancy the 40s this morning but I don’t think she will get soft in the description which is what she needs
I agree with you Big G I don’t fancy Minding at all!!
I have backed Even Song at 10/1 NRNB and Diamond Pour Moi at 40/1 NRNB but to be honest I don’t really fancy anything strongly and any result would not be a surprise to me!!
If mine doesn’t win I will cheer Architecture on for you and we still don’t know what Mrsraymo fancies yet!!
I agree with you Big G I don’t fancy Minding at all!!
I have backed Even Song at 10/1 NRNB and Diamond Pour Moi at 40/1 NRNB but to be honest I don’t really fancy anything strongly and any result would not be a surprise to me!!
If mine doesn’t win I will cheer Architecture on for you and we still don’t know what Mrsraymo fancies yet!!
Cheers Raymo, I’ll return the compliment if Architecture heads for the paddock after the first bend, and
and your pair are still bidding for glory. Best of luck mate
A couple of Oaks contenders had their form kicked to shreds at Leicester this afternoon.
Moorside was 4/6 Fav for the maiden race over 1 and a half miles but was only 4th and beaten more than 7 lengths by the winner. Moorside had previously split Somehow and Diamonds Pour Moi in the Lingfield Oaks Trial. To compound matters, John Gosden’s 16/1 4yo winner was conceding 17lbs to the 3yo fillies here and was lining up rated 69 after her previous fifth place run in December 2014.
Also beaten today was Ajman Princess, who had finished 3 lengths ahead of Skiffle when 5/4F for the Ascot maiden won by Michael Stoute’s Abingdon. That’s three times in a row Ajman Princess has been second and I seriously doubt she improved on her Racing Post rating of 88 here, which then begs the question of what Moorside ran to today, allegedly being 96 on her run behind Somehow, when the O’Brien filly scrambled home desperately after going off 8/11F and looking out with the washing most of the way.
It all looks a million miles away from Oaks quality form for me and this is an awful field in my opinion.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I have enjoyed reading posts on here the last couple of months.Personally i love an ante Post punt !
I thought i would express my views on this years Oaks
2 horse Race Minding and Turret Rocks.
Even before the Irish Guineas i doubted Minding’s stamina for the Oaks. With Turret Rocks form being enhanced by Marenko and an easy 1000 guineas prep it has to be a max bet e/w @ 7/1 NRNB Turret Rocks for me.
I would readily take Turret Rocks at 2/1 in a three way match with Even Song and Skiffle.
I’ll be a bit surprised if it’s not Minding from Turret Rocks and a good way back to the third.
I can’t nominate anything for third place in all honesty.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
A couple of Oaks contenders had their form kicked to shreds at Leicester this afternoon.
Moorside was 4/6 Fav for the maiden race over 1 and a half miles but was only 4th and beaten more than 7 lengths by the winner. Moorside had previously split Somehow and Diamonds Pour Moi in the Lingfield Oaks Trial. To compound matters, John Gosden’s 16/1 4yo winner was conceding 17lbs to the 3yo fillies here and was lining up rated 69 after her previous fifth place run in December 2014.
Also beaten today was Ajman Princess, who had finished 3 lengths ahead of Skiffle when 5/4F for the Ascot maiden won by Michael Stoute’s Abingdon. That’s three times in a row Ajman Princess has been second and I seriously doubt she improved on her Racing Post rating of 88 here, which then begs the question of what Moorside ran to today, allegedly being 96 on her run behind Somehow, when the O’Brien filly scrambled home desperately after going off 8/11F and looking out with the washing most of the way.
It all looks a million miles away from Oaks quality form for me and this is an awful field in my opinion.
Perhaps but only time will tell how good that leicester maiden was, I have a feeling it was an above average one and the first four will all win races, however I agree that it doesn’t look like a great Oaks field
Skiffle in a match bet against Turret rocks? I’d take Skiffle, as I think she’s less exposed and very likely to improve hugely for the step up to a mile and a half, but then I tend to have a weakness for backing unexposed runners over ones with more established form
She does need to improve, Visually the Goodwood win was ok but it didn’t exactly set the stopwatches or formbooks alight
A couple of Oaks contenders had their form kicked to shreds at Leicester this afternoon.
Moorside was 4/6 Fav for the maiden race over 1 and a half miles but was only 4th and beaten more than 7 lengths by the winner. Moorside had previously split Somehow and Diamonds Pour Moi in the Lingfield Oaks Trial. To compound matters, John Gosden’s 16/1 4yo winner was conceding 17lbs to the 3yo fillies here and was lining up rated 69 after her previous fifth place run in December 2014.
Also beaten today was Ajman Princess, who had finished 3 lengths ahead of Skiffle when 5/4F for the Ascot maiden won by Michael Stoute’s Abingdon. That’s three times in a row Ajman Princess has been second and I seriously doubt she improved on her Racing Post rating of 88 here, which then begs the question of what Moorside ran to today, allegedly being 96 on her run behind Somehow, when the O’Brien filly scrambled home desperately after going off 8/11F and looking out with the washing most of the way.
It all looks a million miles away from Oaks quality form for me and this is an awful field in my opinion.
Perhaps but only time will tell how good that leicester maiden was, I have a feeling it was an above average one and the first four will all win races, however I agree that it doesn’t look like a great Oaks field
Skiffle in a match bet against Turret rocks? I’d take Skiffle, as I think she’s less exposed and very likely to improve hugely for the step up to a mile and a half, but then I tend to have a weakness for backing unexposed runners over ones with more established form
She does need to improve, Visually the Goodwood win was ok but it didn’t exactly set the stopwatches or formbooks alight
I think we are clutching at straws if we are relying on a Leicester maiden working out exceptionally well to back up classic form.
If we look at Turret Rocks and Skiffle, we see vastly different form lines for two horses at the same odds.
Put a gun to your head and would you pick a third in a maiden, (second then beaten), Listed winner or a horse who won her maiden and then competed in group 3, group 2, group 2, group 1 and then a Classic?
Turret Rocks is a Group 2 winner and was runner up to Ballydoyle in the Prix Marcel Boussac. She was 6th in the 1000 Guineas.
Visage Blanc, who was 5th to Skiffle in the Height Of Fashion, was beaten more than ten lengths in a Bath handicap off a mark of 74. Visage Blanc was allegedly 8lbs well in for that Bath Handicap, with her mark having been raised to 82 following her run in The Height Of Fashion. It doesn’t look like she’ll be well in off 82, if her effort off 74 is anything to go by.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
You might well be right Steve but on official ratings Skiffle is only seven pounds below Turret rocks having had a lot less runs
Also Turret Rocks didn’t run in the guineas for me like a filly crying out for a mile and a half, even if she is stoutly bred on the dam side (her sire was a sprinter)
I think Skiffle is crying out for it by contrast and bar Minding the rest look very beatable. It it turns out she doesn’t get the trip then she might even bag the win, who knows?
They could have easily taken the soft route with the Ribblesdale so the fact they are going to Epsom at all with this filly means they must fancy a place at least
You might well be right Steve but on official ratings Skiffle is only seven pounds below Turret rocks having had a lot less runs
Also Turret Rocks didn’t run in the guineas for me like a filly crying out for a mile and a half, even if she is stoutly bred on the dam side (her sire was a sprinter)
I think Skiffle is crying out for it by contrast and bar Minding the rest look very beatable. It it turns out she doesn’t get the trip then she might even bag the win, who knows?
They could have easily taken the soft route with the Ribblesdale so the fact they are going to Epsom at all with this filly means they must fancy a place at least
Skiffle’s connections are rather wealthy and we know that the Godolphin operation like to be in the mix in the classics.
I am taking Skiffle’s rating compared to Turret Rocks with a pinch of salt for now. Would you rather hang your hat on form garnered in several group races or in one, potentially ropey, Listed race, which had defeated handicap runners involved?
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I agree the form isn’t great but the Oaks is very short on unexposed runners who could potentially improve. Skiffle is about it. What rating would you give her for that Goodwood run Steve? It’s not like they put her at 110.
To be honest with you I think it could all be irrelevant as if Minding stays the trip she will blow the field away anyway. But if she doesn’t, (and she is very quick over a mile) then the race is wide open and Skiffle has as good a chance as anything.
I would have put Skiffle’s mark at more like 98 for the Height Of Fashion win. I think 103 is generous and the Racing Post mark of 108 is over the score in my opinion.
Play Gal, who was third to Skiffle, came into the race rated 91, having gone up 15lbs for running behind Somehow at Chester. We saw Moorside flop at odds on yesterday, well beaten in 4th, so that hardly made her and I think the notion of Play Gal being rated 91 looks decidedly ropey.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I would have put Skiffle’s mark at more like 98 for the Height Of Fashion win. I think 103 is generous and the Racing Post mark of 108 is over the score in my opinion.
Play Gal, who was third to Skiffle, came into the race rated 91, having gone up 15lbs for running behind Somehow at Chester. We saw Moorside flop at odds on yesterday, well beaten in 4th, so that hardly made her and I think the notion of Play Gal being rated 91 looks decidedly ropey.
That’s exactly the mark I have her running to- 98. The 108 looks ridiculous to me I can’t see how the Racing Post come to that conclusion.
Just nine fillies in the Oaks and Even Song is a non runner.
I felt Even Song was a ridiculous price at 7/1 given her form level.
Minding was available at 11/10 this morning but that’s gone for now, with 10/11 being the best price.
This is the worst Oaks I can recall and the weather may yet lead to a real old plodder winning this and earning a handicapper’s rating in the process.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
…the weather may yet lead to a real old plodder winning this and earning a handicapper’s rating in the process.
Somehow it is, then. She can win this en route to the Queen’s Vase.
You have to wonder what price Minding would have gone off had she skipped the Irish Guineas. I can’t take the risk so it is Somehow each-way for me. I wouldn’t be rushing to take Chester form at face value and I think she did pretty well to win. Her pegigree isn’t too bad and she has a soft ground maiden win over a subsequent dual winner so the rain may be less of a disadvantage to her than the others. I would have her second favourite.
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