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Two days ago the headline was that Minding probably misses the Irish 1000 Guineas and goes straight to The Oaks.
This was hardly a surprise, as Ballydoyle was sitting odds on favourite for the 1000 Guineas.
Today we now see that Minding ISin the 1000 Guineas and is hot favourite at 4/11
Apparently Ballydoyle’s blood profile was not quite right, so she is out of the race.
I suspect So Mi Dar missing the Oaks was a significant factor in this decision. Although it could be true, I take the “blood profile” excuse with a pinch of salt but sometimes they get a lot of unnecessary flak by telling the truth eg Willie Mullins at Sandown.
Expecting a lot of minding to win two guineas and then the oaks less than 2 weeks later. Will she turn up at Epsom. The plot thickens.
They said that The Oaks is still an intended target for Minding.
I would have preferred if they had just gone straight there with her but the Oaks looks like a race she could win without needing to be at her best now that the Gosden filly is out of the race.
A bit of a blow for anyone who was on Ballydoyle ante-post for the Irish 1000 Guineas.
I was going to oppose Ballydoyle with Now Or Never but I just don’t feel like tackling Minding with the same filly.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Is there any chance that Beautiful Morning will now take her chance?
Presumably, after Minding got turned over there will be a few more thinking their chances have got a little better.
At the moment there is no green light because 33/1 is available and you would think she would be at least half that price on the day.
She was quite a promising juvenile and her seasonal debut suggested there might be a fair amount of improvement to come. She doesn’t need to find that much and she seems more likely to do that than many of the remaining entries.
With the uncertainty of which horses will turn up, I’ve held off until some firms have gone NRNB.
Of the 2 that have, Bet365 and Paddy Power, the former has the better odds on ARCHITECTURE at 20/1.
I’ve plodded through the reruns of most, and she strikes me as the right sort for this. I liked the way
she won her maiden at Nottingham last October over 1m½f, looking that she would be even better over further.
In the Oaks Trial Fillies Stakes at Lingfield earlier this month she lost nothing in defeat to Seventh Heaven,
going down a neck, but never looking like giving an inch, with the pair drawing well clear. Given the extra ½f
she’ll get in the Oaks, I think she would have got on top.The wheels have come off the barrow a bit For O’Brien of late, and I can’t believe Minding was needing a
hard race in the Irish 1000 Guineas less than 2 weeks before this. I don’t think she will win and it
wouldn’t surprise me if some “issue” arises that lets O’Brien withdraw her if he feels her chances have
been compromised.Ballydoyle without doubt is a very decent animal, but again there are question marks about her. There has
to some question mark about the trip, it’s an unknown, and the withdrawal from the Irish 1000 Guineas with
a bad blood picture doesn’t fill me with confidence. If she comes right, and if she does get the trip I
think she is the likeliest winner, but that’s 2 big ifs.ARCHITECTURE will relish the trip and will go on the ground regardless of how it is on the day. 20/1
with Bet365 NRNB seems a very decent bet to me.Personally think it was a fair bit of arrogance from the Ballydoyle team in general thinking that this race was nothing more than a racecourse gallop for Minding and that she only had to turn up to win the race – for me there was no upside of running her in this race so close to Epsom, Classics always take a lot of winning regardless of the opposition you face.
Having a hard race like that and also taking into account the report that she banged her head upon leaving the stalls is not the kind of preparation a horse needs to be coming off of when just 12 days later it faces the greatest test of a horse’s abilities on the most unique racecourse in the world.
Might have a look at Fireglow and Harlequeen at big prices who I both thought ran as if a step up in trip would suit in the Musidora – a few reservations about Harlequeen would be that she pulled hard early on in that race and was hanging slighty up the straight but a good gallop may see her to better effect.
Very murky picture at the moment and no one horse looks to now stand out over the others, as they all have various questions to answer.
There must be this doubt about Minding even turning up now, and if she does she had a hard race there, will she recover?
Looks like Skiffle is now quite likely to run: http://www.racingpost.com/news/live.sd?event_id=17115624&category=0
Before the Irish Guineas I would have said Minding was almost a good thing but now I have serious doubts about here recovering and being good enough to win this!!
IMO Even Song will be the best of the AOB bunch and her run behind Swiss range in the Pretty Polly looked like she was outpaced but then stayed on without getting the clearest of runs. I have backed her NRNB at 10/1 and have also had an interest on Fireglow and Beautiful Morning.
Fireglow looks a stayer to me without having a finishing kick which may put her staying on into a place in the Oaks without winning.
Beautiful Morning looked decidedly useful at York last year admittedly in a maiden and then ran well without being involved behind Minding in the Fillies Mile when she was short of run at what I thought was a crucial time. This year she has had a warm up in a listed raced and ran well for a long way having been keen early and was beaten by a much fitter more ready horse.
At 25/1 each of them I have had an interest NRNB !!I just hope that they all turn up and they trot up the straight together !!
You have done better than me as Bet365 only pushed her out to 25/1 after I placed my bet. Everyone else seems to be making a little correction in the other direction. Hopefully, they give the Oaks a shot rather than the Ribblesdale/Irish Oaks combination.
Ballydoyle will not run in the Oaks.
Aidan has said that her blood readings have improved but that she won’t be ready in time for Epsom. The French Oaks is the likely target for her now.
Minding is said to be on track and as long as her work is fine during the week she will be there.
Best price for Minding is now evens and she is as short as 4/6.
I find it crazy that Even Song is 5/1 for this race in a place. She’s a maiden winner, thumped by Swiss Range in Listed company.
This race needs Minding in a big way and the standard looks putrid in all honesty outside of her.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Have to agree with Raymo that the each way appeal has to be with Beautiful Morning in the Oaks and what better winner than the granddaughter of the late great George Washington…managed to get 33/1 few days ago.
Coolmore rolling out excuse after excuse as to why their horses won’t be running herethereandeverywhere, just thought that might be a good name for Doreen Tabor to put on her list of reserved names.
Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...Beautiful Morning won a maiden at York that worked out superbly, with ten of the eighteen runners winning afterwards.
Her 5th in the fillies mile was no disgrace, with Minding and Nathra the 1-2 there. Marenko who was further back has started well this year. It looked a good renewal of the 2yo contest and the daughter of Galileo may get the trip at Epsom.
There are two big negatives for me though.
When second on her seasonal debut the 102 rated Beautiful Morning was the meat in a sandwich formed by horses rated 81 and 83. Yes they can improve at this time of year but even if We Are Ninety, the winner, really improved 17lbs and the third filly Nezwaah by 12lbs, it still leaves Beautiful Morning with a bit to find for Epsom off her 102 official rating.
The bigger concern for me though is the stable form. Luca Cumani had a long quiet spell before having his first runners of the season. He had a few winners early doors but it has pretty much dried up again and they are not running very well at the moment. The stable have not had a winner in the last three weeks and they had a 5/4 fav at Kempton the other day who was only 4th of six runners.
It’s an uninspiring and open Oaks outside of Minding and something has to win this but I can’t get enthused about Beautiful Morning, even at big odds.
Mind you a rank outsider won last year, so it’s always possible. Minding sets a standard above that this year mind you.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Yes wise words Steve and taken on board..thanks. . A place is all I ask of Beautiful Morning really as Minding seems to have the upperhand. Agreed it’s been a dreadful year so far for Cumani and also Henry Candy can’t seem to get off the starting block with his sprinters either. I’m just going to sit back and enjoy the race this year with just a small flutter on Beautiful Morning each way..
JacThings turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...I hope you are cheering Jac !!
I think both races are wide open and it would be brilliant to see Luca with a top class filly again .
Like my little Gossamer!!Beautiful Morning not declared. To be fair the Ribblesdale had been touted as the target but it still seems a bonkers decision. There are question marks over the favourite and the supporting case are hardly a frightening bunch. She would have gone off around 12/1-14/1. You would have to think many people would have given it a go.
Just eleven in the Oaks field now and Beautiful Morning isn’t in the line up.
The fillies left in are:-
Minding
Even Song
Turret Rocks
Skiffle
Somehow
Architecture
Seventh Heaven
Harlequeen
Diamonds Por Moi
How High The Moon
Australian QueenI am not sure how many Aidan will run in the end but the race should be Minding’s for the taking if she is healthy.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Beautiful Morning not declared. To be fair the Ribblesdale had been touted as the target but it still seems a bonkers decision. There are question marks over the favourite and the supporting case are hardly a frightening bunch. She would have gone off around 12/1-14/1. You would have to think many people would have given it a go.
What a shame, would have liked to see her take her chance.
Think I’ll wait for the day now to have a bet and possibly Ralph Beckett’s Diamonds Pour Moi could hold a little each way appeal.Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...
Jac
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