2000 Guineas 2016

I may be biased as I backed him in the Craven, but Stormy Atlantic is the only one who I think may potentially get close to Air Force Blue. He has the advantage of a run and that Craven performance was intriguing to suggest he could just be about anything still. Air Force Blue has the others covered on form in my opinion, especially with the only other unexposed colt pretty much ruled out in Blue De Vega.

I do expect AFB to bag the race, but a Stormy Atlantic e/w and a AFB-Stormy Atlantic reverse forecast are in all likeliness the bets I will be heading into this year’s race with.

stevecaution wrote:

I reckon this will be a small field, Hit It A Bomb and Ribchester have been mooted as bound for France. Andre Fabre has said Ultra won’t run but will be prepared for Epsom and the Derby.

There are a lot of entries who look like they won’t be fast enough and/or are not good enough. I can see the field seriously thinning down and Air Force Blue being well odds on come flag fall.

There has been slight nibbling at Emotionless and Massaat, probably in the expectation that they will definitely run and be a fair bit shorter on the day as the field is seriously pruned down.

Galileo Gold seems a decent call each-way at 40/1, certainly compared to Ultra at half those odds when that one won’t be coming over. Hugo Palmer stated in January that Galileo Gold had put on 70 kilos and really thrived physically since last seen. He is in the running for all three Guineas with the ground the key to where he will turn up. The colt doesn’t want fast ground and the trainer expanded on plans by stating that Galileo Gold is a clean winded horse who probably won’t run in any of the trials.

My gut feeling is that the horse will probably head to France, as Air Force Blue may go Newmarket and Ireland, making those options look tougher assignments for the others.

The French race is shaping like it might be more intriguing and competitive than the others. Somewhat puzzlingly Racebets have La Cressonniere as favourite for the French 2000 Guineas. Jean-Claude Rouget’s five time and unbeaten winner is actually a filly and it would be unusual for her to compete against the colts. I suspect the Racebets team haven’t done their homework here.

Significant money reported for Galileo Gold today. He now sits at 14/1 down to 8/1 in a place.

It’s stating the obvious, but Air Force Blue is going to take some beating. I think the only straw his opposition can clutch is that he may not stay the mile, but that is a mighty thin straw! Of course, these colts aren’t machines and they can have an off-day or, at this stage of their careers, improvement can certainly vary. The vibes from Ballydoyle have always been strong and they continue to be confident about their chances.

My pre-race opinion is that this renewal will prove stronger than last year, and I expect plenty of winners to emerge from the contest. We have the respective winners of the Mill Reef, Vintage Stakes, Coventry Stakes, Futurity, Racing Post Trophy and Craven, not to mention Air Force Blue’s collection of the Dewhurst, National Stakes and Phoenix Stakes. The only notable absentee is Champagne Stakes winner, Emotionless.

Of those in-opposition, Buratino has proven himself more than capable of locking horns at this level. His blistering turn of foot was evident on more than one occasion last season and, having already claimed the scalp of Air Force Blue at Royal Ascot, he gave another two year old superstar, Shalaa, something to think about in the Middle Park.

Many are of the opinion that he was a precocious juvenile, but Buratino maintained his form through a busy campaign and I see no reason why he shouldn’t train on. The trip is another worry, but it should be noted that his two defeats in the first half of the campaign were over five furlongs, the second half over six furlongs. I believe that he possessed the class to be effective over those sprint distances at certain stages of the season, but was crying our for a step-up in trip as the campaign progressed. He is a full brother to the modest Tayma, but she was successful over and an extended mile and Buratino has given the impression that eight furlongs should be within his compass.

I was very impressed with Marcel in the Racing Post Trophy. He wasn’t given due credit for that success because of the ‘unlucky’ loser that was Foundation, but he showed plenty of class and I’m of the opinion that, unlike many winners of that race, this chap is more speed than stamina. His trainer can certainly ready one for their big day in the sun, but dark clouds will not go amiss and any rain should help his cause (at the detriment of Buratino!!).

Massaat, Stormy Antarctic, Herald The Dawn, Ribchester and Galileo Gold all bring solid form to the table, adding plenty of depth to the field, and will certainly be on the premises in top races over a variety of trips this season.

I think the softening of the ground has handed the advantage to Stormy Antarctic

Also the trainer sounds particularly bullish

clutching at straws it might be to suggest that air force blue might get beaten, but if you compare his coventry stakes run to a recent winner of the guineas, there is a world of difference

Air force blue came there to win his race with a brilliant burst of speed and arguably got outstayed by burantino, that was over a stiff six at ascot on summer ground, now he’s got to run over a still mile in April on good to soft, no wonder Aiden has expressed stamina doubts

Dawn approach by contrast showed nothing like as much brilliant speed but gradually wore the opposition down

Dawn approach outstayed and outclassed his opposition in his guineas

Air Force Blue might well outclass the opposition, but if he turns out he’s not a cut above, it’s hard to imagine him outstaying them

Throw in the fact that he’s in a tongue tie and a noseband and it’s rather worrying don’t you think?

Just think the ground/distance could blunt his brilliant speed

should be interesting to find out anyway

Sometimes people look into races too much, Air Force Blue will piss the race without a doubt! Terrible bunch of horses to beat

Last year was a bad era and if there is no good debuts this year then we are set for another bad one! Awful guineas, not a group 1 in my eyes…listed at best

I really cannot see past AFB. There is no doubt in my mind he will get the mile, if you look at his last outing in the Dewhurst he looked like a mile would be perfect, plus he was a little keen out of the stalls & for the first 1 1/2 furlongs, that said he cruised through the race and accelerated away (the race was not run at a blistering pace) thus complementing the fact he was stretching away at post. The ground will be fine for him as long as the word GOOD is in the description (the drie the worst for the opposition). I know he’s short 8/11 come 3.45 he’ll be shorter(Bet365 did go Evens earlier). AFB will come out of the dip balanced and on the bridle and win going away. Mark my words…!!

I got on Stormy Antarctic EW at 10-1. Hope he doesn’t make a fool of me.

@Triptych I was on Haafhd in 2004 and I’m grasping for faith in the Craven right now!