Forum Replies Created
-
Posts
-
Ulysses certainly has had some hard tasks this year
10 lbs to Barney in the Eclipse
14 lbs & 10 lbs to EnableQuite obvious these allowances are an advantage for a top class filly, in hindsight it was mission impossible. You feel more for Cloth of Stars who obviously had been aimed at the race all bloody year 😥
Unless it changes we could see more and more top 3YO colts off to stud early and the Eclipse and KG becoming 3 year old races.
Why is it not unfair to Enable to run all summer, while Cloth of Stars is well rested. You want total parity, so why not make rules about running frequency, too?
Is Cloth of Stars really better than OoSG, Ulysses or Dschingis Secret? Or did he simply benefit from less races, a better draw and different, less ambitious tactics.
It already is a handicap Judge because the current WFA has made it so. Enable was a blot on Sunday – 9lbs well in with Ulysses and probably about 19lbs well in with the runner-up (he has no official recent OR).
The race conditions handicap older horses. What I am saying is that if there must be a handicap for age/sex, then make it a fairer one than it currently is.
Graded races should pit the best against the best without fear or favour. As Stuart Riley (Racing Post) pointed out on Twitter this evening, when Usain Bolt entered open races as a teenager he didn’t get a five yard start.
Okay you say the WFA is unfair. Why so few three year old runners then, when it´s such a huge advantage
2017: 5 of 18, three year olds.
2016: 6 of 18, three year olds.
2015: 6 of 18, three year olds.
2014: 10 of 20, three year olds.
2013: 9 of 17, three year olds.
2012: 8 of 18, three year olds.
2011: 8 of 16, three year olds.
2010: 8 of 18, three year olds.
2009: 7 of 19, three year olds.
2008: 5 of 16, three year olds.13 of a potential 30 places (43.3%)
72 of 178 runners (40.4%)If there was a WFA bias, why is the podium not dominated by them.
The three year olds that have won or placed in an Arc over the last 10 years are
3 year old winners: Enable, Golden Horn, Treve, Danedream, Workforce, Sea The Stars, Zarkava (70%)
3 year old runner-ups: Shareta (10%)
3 year old third placed: Intello, New Bay, Taghrooda, Masterstroke, Sarafina , Cavalryman (50%)
Now let´s look at the winners:
Sea The Stars six G1 wins (retired)
Treve six G1 wins (50% as an older horse)
Danedream five G1 wins (40% as an older horse)
Zarkava five G1 wins (retired)
Enable five G1 wins (to be decided)
Golden Horn four G1 wins (retired)
Workforce two G1 wins (0% as an older horse)So all the recent three year old Arc winners have won a minimum of four G1 races except Workforce, which tells me they must have been pretty decent animals.
Shareta two G1 wins (100% as an older horse)
Sarafina three G1 wins (0% as an older horse)
Taghrooda two G1 wins (retired)
Intello one G1 win (retired)
New Bay one G1 win (0% as an older horse)
Cavalryman one G1 win (0& as an older horse)
Masterstroke no G1 win (0% as an older horse)Of the fillies that stayed in training: Treve, Danedream and Shareta were just as successful or even moreso as older horses. The only exception is really Sarafina. Then 2011 was a much stronger year than 2010. She still finished better in that Arc than Workforce or Nakayama Festa.
Seems the system works pretty well. It´s never going to be an exact science, but it seems the best horses of their generation win the Arc more often than not.
It probably is just we’ve been blessed with s lot of good fillies plus too many top three year old sent to stud after their three year old campaigns are finished. Danedream couldn’t repeat her performance next year so maybe there is just something in the allowances. Just goes to show what w brilliant horse alleged was. Just look he he beat in his two arcs. Was the top rated horse at that time in the globe.
What you mean Danedream couldn´t repeat it?
Her campaign the following year was designed to peak for the Arc. Yet she became the first filly to win the KG in 29 years beating one of the best KG fields in recent memories including Nathaniel and SNA. She also gave weight to the Japanese Derby winner in that race. Then she went into the GP of Baden-Baden as a PREP for the Arc and gave weight away to Novellist and Pastorius. That was the last defeat in Novellist´s career as he went on to win the Premio Jockey Club, the GP Saint Cloud, the King George and the GP Baden-Baden before missing the Arc as the ante-post favourite. Pastorius was the German Derby winner and later won the Ganay also got weight from Danedream.
Given that Solemia won the Arc in 2012 as a four year old, and Danedream acted well on heavy ground, it´s hardly a stretch to suggest she would have won the Arc as well, if not for the equine disease outbreak.
So I have no idea what you talking about.
It’s hard to tell though, isn’t it? We can only guess at the progression these mares might have made from 3-4 (if any).
You look back and you remember Danedream, Treve etc as great horses because of what they did in the Arc. Perhaps a combination of the visual memories and the usual swirl of post-race hype makes you forget the ridiculous weight differential and think they were further superior than the reality of it.
Would Danedream have won off level weights against So You Think and St Nicholas Abbey? Would Enable have beaten Cloth Of Stars or Ulysses off level weights at Longchamp? Would Zarkava have beaten Youmzain and Soldier Of Fortune?
I don’t believe you’d make ‘yes!’ shorter than 5/6 off levels for any of those.
Danedream and Enable are the only fillies to win the Arc and the KG. Treve is one of two fillies in history to win two Arcs. Those were historic achievements. Furthermore Treve and Danedream won big quality races as four year olds sometimes conceding weight. Zarkava won all her races comfortably, beating Goldikova and Da Re Mi off level weights.
I´ll gladly accept that Taghrooda took advantage of her own weight and the most god awful KG field ever, but that´s not really the case for those other fillies.
It´s pretty simple imho. We have been blessed with some all time great fillies in Zarkava, Danedream, Treve and Enable recently. Might add Snow Fairy to the list.
Sometimes they just come in waves. From 1972 to 1983 you had eight fillies win the Arc. Then one win in 24 years. The drought in the KG was even longer. No winner in 29 years.
Interesting that this time around the lower numbers were indeed favoured.
1. #2
2. #3
3. #1
4. #9 (very good race again from OoSG)
5. #4
6. #10 (DS also on the outside the whole way)
7. #6
8. #7
9. #8
10. #18 (a good race from Zarak with the worst draw)No chance this year, if you drew in double figures.
Next year could be the best five year old generation in a while. A 2nd, 6th and 10th of the Arc possibly staying in training.
Btw if Gosden says Enable stays in training, does that help speed up Cracksman´s maturing process and we see him again this year?
Gosden knew Cracksman had nothing to gain in this Arc. This was such an even field behind Enable that he could easily have finished nowhere. Best case was he finishes second and everybody just shrugs their shoulders.
No idea why Ashiana is 56-1 for the Opera and Lacazar is 6-1. There is not that much between the German fillies at all.
Truly brilliant!!
She put it to bed pretty quickly!!
Frankie controlled it great, too. We have seen plenty jockeys butcher races, when on the best animal and in much smaller fields. Frankie made sure nothing boxed him in at any stage. Gotta love that Nathaniel´s stud fee was dropped from 20k to 17.5k, cause his two year olds didn´t produce immediate results.
I’m a bit late throwing my hat into the ring on this thread, but after spending a bit of time
going through the field looking for a bit of value, and watching as many reruns as I could
stomach, I think there is value to be had in CLOTH OF STARS at 33/1.
I think there is little doubt that if ENABLE turns up in top form, and doesn’t have a hard
luck story in running, she’s well capable of taking this as she looks a bit special. Those
are two significant iff’s, and the ARC is traditionally a no holds barred tough skirmish of
a race. With that in mind, I’m not too inclined to take the pretty skinny 4/5 on offer.Cloth OF STARS could very well be going into this having won all 4 of his starts this season, and
if he had I don’t think he would be on offer at 33/1. Having watched his run in the Qatar Prix Foy
at Chantilly last time out, he nearly hit the rails at one point and had to be snatched up, and even
although it was only a 6 runner race, Barzalona somehow managed to get him completely tied up with
nowhere to go until virtually inside the final furlong, when Dschingis Secret had already got the
march on him. Dschingis Secret is trading at half his price, and there’s no way that should be the
case. There seems every chance that it could come up soft on Arc day, and that won’t trouble him at
all. If it stays dry, he’ll be equally happy. Add to that that this is a horse who broke the track
record over 10f back in April, and he was running on strongly when he eventually saw daylight
behind Dschingis Secret over 12f, and I think there is every chance that he has a very decent
shout here. I’m very keen on his chances and have had a decent bet on him e/w.Well let´s put it this way. If they ran the Foy in the same way/time and you just switched the names Satono Diamond and Dschingis Secret, Satono Diamond would now be 4-1 for the Arc, Cloth of Stars would be 7-1 and Dschingis Secret would be 66-1. So I agree that CoS (exposed as he may be) is way too big. CoS beat Zarak in the Ganay, and is twice the price, although Zarak has only beaten the same field in the GP Saint Cloud since (minus CoS).
I still haven’t had an antepost bet yet.
It looks a frankly poor renewal outside of the UK runners.
Enable should win but I have a feeling she may get beat by something running the race of its life whereas she may have had one run too many and slightly underperforms.
Nobody “flukes” an Arc, except Solemia. Danedream, Snow Fairy, Nathaniel missing it due to injury/fever/quarantine the week before the race. Pastorius and Novellist not being supplemented. Favourite Novellist missing the 2013 running with another fever, after he was bought by Japanese owners a couple days before.
That whole situation surrounding the 2012-2013 Arcs makes for one hell of a conspiracy theory/cinderella movie. Japan takes out the five best horses of 2012 in their quest to finally win the Arc with Orfevre, who then knocks himself silly and gets turned over at by a re-rallying unheralded mare.
Having had no financial interest in the race whatsoever I can probably speak without bias LOL
I have to agree with Joe on this inasmuch as the “Lads” certainly have team tactics which are close to breaking the rules. The Leger for example. they ran three pacemakers and it was like a Diamond League athletics event!! LOL
I backed two in that race Venice Beach and Capri so I am not talking out of my pocket here. Obviously they are going to try to get the race to suit them but if they just through loads at it in the hope of stopping Enable winning then surely the authorities have to do something.In a “proper” race Enable wins this from some French horse that has been prepped all season for this and then probably one of the “Lads” horses will crawl in third. I a messy race who knows what will happen and IMO something does have to be done about these “team” tactics.
100% spot on. I hate pacemakers and team tactics.
Vindication for Hein Hollow as Windstoss wins the (weak) Gr.1 in Cologne. As much as Adrie de Vries is one of the most underrated jockeys in the world, Eddy Pedroza must be one of the most overrated. Can´t believe he´s still #1 jockey at Wohler´s big stable. No idea why Markus Klug would go out of his way to book him for Colomano, unless we wanted to make sure Windstoss wins.
Ah, the market rarely lies. When significant report for Champion Stakes was announced yesterday, Gosden had obviously already decided.
I see he is now basing the decision not on “avoiding a hard race”, “saving him till next year” or the “short Chantilly straight” as he intends sending him over 2f shorter on one of the shortest straights in the country.
His sole reason for not running in the Arc appears to be that Frankie can’t ride both.
Agree with almost everything except I think the main reason is that he does not think Cracksman is good enough based on the evidence at home. Aside from the poor level opposition in the Voltigeur and Niel, it´s probably fair to say his previous form ties in closely with Capri and Brametot, who are genereally around 14/16-1 for the Arc. 3-1 with a run seemed a ridiculous price to be honest. I think if Gosden was convinced it was as close as the odds suggested and that he clearly had the 2nd best horse behind Enable, he´d have run Cracksman.
Two German fillies
Rock My Love
2-1 co-favourite for the Winterkonigin Oct. 22nd with Racebets.
Unbeaten in two. Won a strong maiden (multiple winners since) and a strong Listed trial, both in an absolute canter. The equally impressive unbeaten co-favourite Narella has been snatched up by Japanese interests and is now aimed at the Gr.1 Marcel Boussac on Arc weekend, so chances she won´t turn up for the German race three weeks later. Only small danger to Rock my Love would be the Swiss-trained Auenperle, but doesn´t seem like she´s aimed at the German race.
The fact that Brametot will probably be the only French three year old running is a red flag in itself. This race is their holy grail. Tells you what they think of their own horses. I share your views on Cracksman´s recent form, but still Capri, Eminent and Cracksman got the French generation covered. Fabre not even considering Waldgeist. Recoletos doesn´t stay. Rivet, Avilius, Finche. Gosh. At least he should stay based on his breeding.
