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Impressed by the runner up. Derby entry as well. If anyone sees him priced for Derby let me know.
Priced in Bet365 at 40s.
Magic Lily did look like a smart one today at Newmarket… Potential horse for the Oaks?
Already priced at 20s by Bet365
Two German fillies
Rock My Love
2-1 co-favourite for the Winterkonigin Oct. 22nd with Racebets.
Unbeaten in two. Won a strong maiden (multiple winners since) and a strong Listed trial, both in an absolute canter. The equally impressive unbeaten co-favourite Narella has been snatched up by Japanese interests and is now aimed at the Gr.1 Marcel Boussac on Arc weekend, so chances she won´t turn up for the German race three weeks later. Only small danger to Rock my Love would be the Swiss-trained Auenperle, but doesn´t seem like she´s aimed at the German race.
Gronkowski; well beaten in the first at Newbury today (original favourite before drifting badly) is an absolute beast of a horse and one that it would probably pay to keep an eye on in future. The jockey booking of Ryan Moore suggested much was expected and connections seemed bullish in the parade ring. In the race itself he was never in any kind of a good position but plugged on well when the penny drops. This is a really strongly built colt to keep onside.
Emaraaty is running at Newbury tomorrow after an eye catching debut 3 weeks ago at Sandown
I can recall Barry Hills saying many years ago that the owner liked his horses to have a nice time on debut and that was certainly the case for Emaraaty.Easy win for Emaraaty but, as I suspected, no odds at all on him.
I had to giggle at the ATR odds guide that showed him at 7/2. Where do they get these people who obviously don’t have a clue from? We would all be rich backing with them.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Lol Steve, yeah my eyes lit up at the predicted forecast
Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
The Beresford Stakes in Naas today looks a hot contest. Prominent in the ante post markets for the Guineas and Derby, Aidan O’Brien’s Saxon Warrior heads the betting at even money.
I don’t think there’s as much between the Ballydoyle trio as the betting initially suggested. Market movement has somewhat supported this belief, as Saxon Warrior has drifted from an opening price of 4/7 to 1/1, although the ground is likely a large factor in this. Kew Gardens is my selection under Donnacha O’Brien. He is the only one of the three that has form on proper soft ground, when he was very impressive winning at Killarney.
He was very green chasing home Nelson at Leopardstown earlier this month, but hopefully he has learned from this, and will put his extra experience to good use.
Kew Gardens 5/1 – Naas 5.00
Saxon Warrior impressed me far more than the winning margin would suggest yesterday, and I believe he is a worthy favourite for the Derby at this early stage. Looking at his action his knee didn’t extend the way it did on his debut win, suggesting that a sounder surface will bring out the best in him. He showed signs of inexperience, and if these Deep Impact progeny keep on progressing like the Galileo’s do (which remains to be seen), he could be a formidable force next season. You can practically hear Coolmore rubbing their hands together at the thoughts of owning the first top-class Deep Impact stallion in Europe.
Kew Gardens remains an interesting one for me, with a more conservative ride he may have been better than what he showed. Naas is a stiff track, especially in those conditions. I think he and Delano Roosevelt will be put away for the season and aimed at the Derrinstown next year. Saxon Warrior I can see going raiding in old Anglo-Saxony, probably for the Dante, Dee or Vase depending on the ground. It will be interesting to see how he and The Pentagon are campaigned from now on, I expect the latter to go for the Racing Post Trophy whilst Gustav Klimt goes for the Dewhurst/Guineas.
Kew Gardens looks like he could be one for the Leger.
Looking ahead to the weekend at Chantilly and Newmarket there are some promising sorts in action.
Polydream looks very solid at 7/4 in the Marcel Boussac. The Freddy Head filly is 2/2 now and the Group 3 she won last month is working out exceptionally well, with 4 runners and 4 winners since. I’m backing her to do it for the home team, and she is one I will keep in mind for the Poule d’Essai des Pouliches 2018.
I like Beckford 6/1 in the Middle Park Stakes. I think 7f on Sft was just too much for him last time and a drop back in trip on a firmer surface will help. I’m going to hold out on this one until on the day however, with the ground liable to change from the current description of Good. Depending on which way the ground goes Unfortunately or Sioux Nation could be preferred to Beckford. Although the chances of Sioux Nation getting anything better than Good ground is a slim hope. If soft enters the going description and he remains a backable price, Unfortunately may get the nod instead.
Nelson 7/2 gets the nod in the Royal Lodge and I’m siding with Steve on Different League 8/1 in the Chevely Park.
It was a hugely impressive performance by saxon warrior who won by a lot more than the winning margin suggests. Aiden was obviously delighted and the lads must be getting excited. Could well run in the guineas then straight to the Derby. As usual the lads seem to spot the trends in breeding ahead of others and deep impact looks like a stallion with a big future. Only proviso is to wait until the winner runs on firmish ground thought his action and breeding suggest he will improve greatly for it.
Interestingly, Freddy Head said after Efaadah won the Prix Marettes that she was the best filly he had trained for some time. Next time out however, she was second to the filly she had beaten 3 lengths in the Marettes, going down by a length. It was soft ground second time out and a longer trip but I felt she was simply given too much to do, coming from the back, whereas she had pretty much made all the previous time.
Efadaah is lying at 20/1 in the Boussac betting and that may seem huge based on Head’s earlier comment.
As Voleur said, Polydream has had excellent boosts to her form. Laurens is a filly I backed at 5/1 for the May Hill based on her run behind Polydream and although she only got up late in the day at Doncaster her trainer said that they were looking for a strong pace that day and never got one. Laurens looks a sure stayer in the making and you can understand that Polydream is favourite for the Arc weekend race.
Freddy Head’s With You hosed up on her debut by 6 lengths and is in the betting for the Boussac, yet this seems to come too soon after that race and we don’t now what she beat in the race for unraced fillies. I would say she is unlikely to step straight into such a hot contest so quickly and she also won on heavy ground, which can exaggerate superiority.
With Clemmie being backed for the Cheveley quite strongly and September favourite for the Rockfel, you would think Happily might be the one for Ballydoyle in the Boussac if any.
Polydream was talked of as a Cheveley Park filly initially but Head then stated that he had reservations about her getting outpaced at Newmarket. There will be no danger of that with the mile of the Boussac and rain forecast.
Soustraction, who beat Efaadah over 1 mile on soft in the Group 3 Prix D’Aumale is surely one to consider at 12/1 but I can’t get away from the notion of the other Head filly perhaps reestablishing her earlier superiority at 20/1 should Head run both of his fillies.
An excellent weekend for 2YO racing and I have given Olmedo a chance at 8/1 in the Lagardere. He looked excellent on debut and I felt he was left too much to do when failing by a short head after finishing strongly next time out. Said to be Rouget’s best 2YO this season, I am chancing him against Masar, who did me a good turn last time, and The Pentagon, who may not be as cast iron at a mile on heavy, if it pans out that way, as some seem to feel he will be. The Pentagon’s form has not been at all solid and, to be honest, I am glad I went with Saxon Warrior instead, at 33/1, for The Derby.
I’ll go Efaadah 20/1 and Olmedo 8/1 as the value options and have had a double on Polydream with Nelson in the Royal Lodge to involve the solid form of Head’s Boussac favourite. Good luck this weekend.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Maybe being a bit harsh but Saxon Warrior didn’t impress me visually and I don’t see him as a derby winner on that performance. But then Wings of eagles won a derby so anything is possible.
Magic Lily, beautifully bred by New Approach out of group 1 winner Dancing Rain, looked mightily impressive on her debut at Newmarket on Saturday; she looks very forward and has some serious potential I sense.
What could quite possibly turn out to be the best maiden run all season is at 1.40 at the Curragh on Sunday over 7 furlongs.
16 debutants containing a cousin to Harzand, a full brother to Hit It A Bomb & Brave Anna, a Frankel half brother to Bago & Maxios, a 1.3million gns daughter of a Lockinge winner (also by Frankel) and a half brother to Lethal Force.
I recon this could be a race to dissect.
9 of the 16 have run since, 4 have won, 2 got beat by one of those 4 and the winner was 2nd in a Listed race.
At Tipperary today, I really liked the way Zabriskie knuckled down when challenged by Spanish Point (who finished ahead of him on debut in the above mentioned maiden). If he continues to go the right way he could progress into a top class colt over middle distances next year. Being by Frankel and his profile so far I’d be surprised if he doesn’t race in a Derby trial of some sort next spring.
Maybe being a bit harsh but Saxon Warrior didn’t impress me visually and I don’t see him as a derby winner on that performance. But then Wings of eagles won a derby so anything is possible.
He won easily despite running green and the state of the ground meant that he went out to Evens at one stage.
There may be others to come out yet but for now Saxon Warrior is worthy of being clear favourite for the Derby.
If the season pans out the way I think it might do, I can see Saxon Warrior being 5/1 Fav for the Derby going into the winter.
The colt has won two races with ease. I am not sure what else he has to do to impress. He really quickened to win first time up and kept on well on soft ground next time, looking the winner from some way out.
At 10/1, he is the only potential value in the list when you weigh up all the factors. It’s the happiest I have been with a double carpet ante-post bet in a good number of years. The dream is that I won’t have to have another bet on the race unless the wheels come off Saxon Warrior.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I’m on him too Steve and was similarly impressed given the ground. He looks like he will have a nice turn of foot on better ground. Form-wise he is only on a par with Nelson who beat the two stablemates by a similar margin but one would think there is more to come as it was just his second start. The other O’Brien I like for the Derby is Amadeo Modigliani but I hear we won’t see him again this year.
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Saxon warrior was a very easy winner and looks a terrificly exciting prospect. He is the worthy ante post favourite although obrien has several horses like the pentagon with loads of potential. I do agree that I’d be purring if I was one of the lads with a potential stallion prospect which is not by galileo. I think the pentagon is just as exciting but we will have to wait till next years trials to see who has progressed. I would expect both the pentagon and saxon warrior will be at the forefront come the Derby.
Was at Newmarket today and highly impressed with the run of Elarqam (Frankel-Attraction). He powered home up the uphill finish of the Rowley Mile and his 2 and a quarter length victory could have been more if Jim Crowley hadn’t have eased him at the finish.
Here he is going to post prior to his win and definitely more to come…Jac
Elarqam going to post before winning the Tattersalls Stakes Gp.3 – The image of his mum
Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...
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