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Ah, the market rarely lies. When significant report for Champion Stakes was announced yesterday, Gosden had obviously already decided.
I see he is now basing the decision not on “avoiding a hard race”, “saving him till next year” or the “short Chantilly straight” as he intends sending him over 2f shorter on one of the shortest straights in the country.
His sole reason for not running in the Arc appears to be that Frankie can’t ride both.
If we’re being honest they never had any real intention of running in the Arc and so the campaign they gave this horse after the Curragh was stupid. Why run in the Voltiguer and the Niel? They had no reason not to run in the Leger and win a Classic if the Arc was a no-go. Instead they have a horse on their hands who has not won any race of real note having been beaten in two Derbies.
Gosden confirms Cracksman won’t run in one of the most head-scratching decisions in recent memory:
He does this from time to time. I still haven’t got over Gosden stupidly withdrawing Golden Horn from the King George a couple of years ago.
Personally I thought Cracksman was tailor-made for the Leger however as he was never going to run there the Arc was always the only reasonable “other” target.
Silly decision not to run in my book, won’t have the pace for the Champion Stakes, this horse is a middle distance stayer.
According to Simon Rowlands sectional analysis, Cracksman ran the last 2 furlongs of the Voltigeur faster than Ulysses, Churchill and Barney Roy did in the International. Am sure partly due to the stronger early pace of the latter race. However, Voltigeur is over a longer trip and Cracksman was not under maximum pressure in those final two furlongs.
Might be that Cracksman ends up a better horse at 12f than 10f, but imo evidence suggests he has enough pace for the Champion – particularly if on the soft side of good/conditions place a fairly strong emphasis on stamina at the trip.
Value Is EverythingAh, the market rarely lies. When significant report for Champion Stakes was announced yesterday, Gosden had obviously already decided.
I see he is now basing the decision not on “avoiding a hard race”, “saving him till next year” or the “short Chantilly straight” as he intends sending him over 2f shorter on one of the shortest straights in the country.
His sole reason for not running in the Arc appears to be that Frankie can’t ride both.
Wasn’t his “sole reason”, Joe.
Value Is EverythingAh, the market rarely lies. When significant report for Champion Stakes was announced yesterday, Gosden had obviously already decided.
I see he is now basing the decision not on “avoiding a hard race”, “saving him till next year” or the “short Chantilly straight” as he intends sending him over 2f shorter on one of the shortest straights in the country.
His sole reason for not running in the Arc appears to be that Frankie can’t ride both.
Agree with almost everything except I think the main reason is that he does not think Cracksman is good enough based on the evidence at home. Aside from the poor level opposition in the Voltigeur and Niel, it´s probably fair to say his previous form ties in closely with Capri and Brametot, who are genereally around 14/16-1 for the Arc. 3-1 with a run seemed a ridiculous price to be honest. I think if Gosden was convinced it was as close as the odds suggested and that he clearly had the 2nd best horse behind Enable, he´d have run Cracksman.
Theyll be a bunch of reasons, but im sure its more to do with enable than anything else, if i was an enable backer not that youd need any signs but youv got to take this as another massive positive
GT, I think he’s easily good enough to win the Champion Stakes this year, but I’ve no doubt he’d be at his most effective over farther.
The yard must be hugely confident Enable can win the Arc. Time will tell if they get ‘Theresa May’d’ over a gross case of hubris. If Enable is beaten by Capri the ‘what might have beens’ will be echoing over Clarehaven for a long, long time.
On balance, though, I’d have to say that Gosden must have a seriously strong conviction that running Cracksman in the Arc is not the right thing to do. Fair play to him in the face of huge media pressure.
Theyll be a bunch of reasons, but im sure its more to do with enable than anything else,
Without Enable there’d be no excuses. He’d be running.
If it was only for the reasons given there’d be no reason to keep Cracksman as a possible Arc runner until now.Value Is EverythingWasn’t his “sole reason”, Joe.
Well, it was the only one he offered the Post:
“We already have Enable in the Arc and Frankie [Dettori] rides her so we thought it wise to look elsewhere.”
As mentioned in my post above, his decision needs respect. He’s no fool, if there are reasons other than (by inference) ‘No jockey but Frankie can win the Arc on him in my opinion”, then he ought to talk about them given his strong reputation as a great communicator.
Oppenheimer has said that Cracksman is just as unlikely to line up in the Champion stakes. In my opinion his form this year doesn’t add up to much. He won the Voltigeur easily but he didn’t have to beat much. Venice Beach 26l behind Capri in the Leger and Mirage Dancer beaten by Red Verdon and Mount Logan in a conditions race since. The 3 year old classic colts this year have been very average with the two filles Enable and Winter being a shining light for the classic generation as a whole.
I have Enable at least 6 lengths better than Cracksman and connections probably do too. That would be the main hub of the decision. I think the owner might be a bit afraid to lose and has been convinced by himself and others that Capri would have beaten him in the St. Leger and Enable would beat him in the Arc.
Chivers, he’d have very little faith in his horse if he could so easily be convinced Capri – the 2nd best horse at the Curragh – would have beaten him at Doncaster. Of the principles in Ireland, the one horse who looked like he wanted a longer trip that day was Cracksman. After that his trainer claims he has come on a lot and the manner of his victory at York (not so much in the Niel) appears to back this up.
Even if Enable is 6 lengths better than Cracksman, a bad draw, a bump or other misfortune in running can easily delete that deficit.
Dave Yates in his Mirror column today reported that the deciding gallop for Cracksman’s participation would be on Wednesday. The strong impression given is that the owner was his source. My suspicion is that the horse has disappointed them at home in the last 24 hours and the decision was taken not to run in the Arc. When the market livened up suddenly on his Champion Stakes price, I assumed they had simply changed target, but now, as you say, Oppenheimer is sounding negative about the Ascot run too.
Something’s afoot, I think. The final clue, imo, is that Gosden says he’ll be taken out of the Arc tomorrow. Why? The filly has a week in which she could step on a stone, come into season, or meet any type of mishap thus making Frankie available. If the horse is fit and well and money is no object, why would you take him out now?
I think you’re all reading too much into media soundbites. Gosden and Oppenheimer obviously have some sort of reason for not wanting to run Cracksman – baffling and illogical though it may be.
Picking apart Gosden’s BS or seizing upon one or two words in his terse little statements probably isn’t a game worth playing. They’re being evasive and don’t want to talk about it – these quotes that reach print are probably abrupt little telephone interviews with journalists – ended with Gosden slamming down the phone.
Oh, I agree SP. I would not only want to see him run but I would have expected him too on the basis that it is an open race beyond the form of Enable and that anything could happen but I just feel Oppenheimer is being a bit precious with the horses form. I imagine he likes to see numbers like 111211112 when it comes to his best ones and that he is afraid to see a 5,6,7 etc.
As for waiting during the week, its a no brainer they should do that. They discussed it on the Sunday forum (excellent show this week) that it would cost them 120,000 to supplement if something did happen to Enable and that it would only be a few grand here or there every day up until the day of the race were he kept in.
That sort of screams to me that they don’t think he can win even if god forbid something does rule Enable out.How good Cracksman might be is open to debate but what baffles me is why they sent him to Chantilly for the Arc trial when they had no intention of running him there partly because of it being at Chantilly! As it turned out the horse handled the track perfectly fine. I can’t see him going to Ascot – 10f will not suit a horse who hits at flat spot at 12f!!
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Oppenheimer has said that Cracksman is just as unlikely to line up in the Champion stakes. In my opinion his form this year doesn’t add up to much. He won the Voltigeur easily but he didn’t have to beat much. Venice Beach 26l behind Capri in the Leger and Mirage Dancer beaten by Red Verdon and Mount Logan in a conditions race since. The 3 year old classic colts this year have been very average with the two filles Enable and Winter being a shining light for the classic generation as a whole.
I have Enable at least 6 lengths better than Cracksman and connections probably do too. That would be the main hub of the decision. I think the owner might be a bit afraid to lose and has been convinced by himself and others that Capri would have beaten him in the St. Leger and Enable would beat him in the Arc.
Immediately after the Dante a couple of years ago Oppenheimer was not even clear whether Golden Horn would run in the Derby. From his public words doesn’t seem to have much of a clue. Though suspect privately it may be different.
Cracksman is not rated on Mirage Dancer who did not stay and/or ran well below his Ascot form when well behind in the Voltigeur. So the link of the two horses form means absolutely nothing.
Horses are not machines and Venice Beach was out on his feet before 2 out in the St Leger. Obviously well below form there. What about all his other form that you’re ignoring? Venice Beach won the Chester Vase and then ran a disappointing 12th in the Derby. Then only 1 length behind Shakeel and Permian in the Group 1 Grand Prix De Paris. Is judging how good a horse is by one poor performance in the St Leger wise? When a horse runs to form those overall times and/or sectional times can be compared to the times produced in another race. By comparing form punters can often see when a horse runs well or poorly; but this can also be identified by time comparissons. Venice Beach ran well in the Voltigeur and poorly in the St Leger.
I’ve been on Enable for a long time in the Arc. However, Cracksman’s times produced in the Voltigeur tells me he’s already of Group 1 standard. Not yet in the Enable bracket and may be he’ll never get there, but does have more scope for improvement.
Value Is EverythingI wouldnt say gosden and oppenheimer have done anything wrong in their decision, theyve stuck by what they said 5 weeks ago…..
Running in the arc trial was only ever about winning a group 2 and adding some easy £, it was a stroll in the park win
Like ginge said, if enable wasnt their, hed be running, if your on enable take this as another positive not that you need any
Should she have to be pulled out like joe said theyll be kicking themselves, but she must be burning up the gallops at home for such an early decision
How good Cracksman might be is open to debate but what baffles me is why they sent him to Chantilly for the Arc trial when they had no intention of running him there partly because of it being at Chantilly! As it turned out the horse handled the track perfectly fine. I can’t see him going to Ascot – 10f will not suit a horse who hits at flat spot at 12f!!
Agreed, if they truly believed Chantilly against him why run there.
But I wouldn’t exactly say Cracksman “hits a flat spot”, Joni. Given his sectionals looks more that he needs to be asked forcefully to show the pace he’s capable of. imo He grew up a lot between Irish Derby and Voltigeur, greeness costing him the English Derby and a combination of greeness and poor ride in the Irish. At both Chantilly and York briefly looked in trouble before producing an impressive turn of foot to (within a few strides) having all rivals in trouble.Value Is Everything
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