Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe 2017

mickeyjp wrote:

Lots of differing opinions. One thing to consider is why so many fillies,especially 3yos have won so many recent arcs. The wfa may well be too much skewed in their favour.

Why should it be more than any other race ?? Fillies do not habitually beat colts in group ones

Its nothing more than the fact there have been some outstanding fillies. Too much is read into stats at times

Enable is by some margin the best middle distance horse in europe. There is nothing more complicated to it than that but its extraordinary that some should seek to crab a perfect and totally dominant season. I also believe that she certainly hasnt been fully tested as yet and there is more to come

clivexx wrote:

mickeyjp wrote:

Lots of differing opinions. One thing to consider is why so many fillies,especially 3yos have won so many recent arcs. The wfa may well be too much skewed in their favour.

Why should it be more than any other race ?? Fillies do not habitually beat colts in group ones

Its nothing more than the fact there have been some outstanding fillies. Too much is read into stats at times

Enable is by some margin the best middle distance horse in europe. There is nothing more complicated to it than that but its extraordinary that some should seek to crab a perfect and totally dominant season. I also believe that she certainly hasnt been fully tested as yet and there is more to come

Here, here! Absolute nonsense to suggest she’s not an outstanding filly. The only time she was taken on during the season by Rhododendron in The Oaks, she found another gear.

She’s is the complete package and should and will in my opinion go down as an all time great. Hopefully she stays in training so we can enjoy her for another year. I would expect her to improve next season.

I agree with Clive that the stats don’t paint the full picture in any way satisfactory.

In accordance with what Gingertipster is saying, how many older horses have been good enough to win an Arc ahead of the various 3 year old fillies that won in those particular years? I can’t recall any instance where the winning filly was definitely an inferior horse to one of her older opponents.

The thing about older horses is, the best three year old colts – and sometimes fillies – rarely go on to have four year old careers. If they have a successful Classic campaign they will more than likely be shipped off to the breeding sheds so the circle can begin anew.

Generally it is the underachievers who go on to have careers after three.

Gingertipster wrote:

LostSoldier3 wrote:

Only 6 horses older than 3 have the race since 1994, Derek.

That’s a ratio of three 3yos to every one older winner. I guess you could say…older horses rarely take the race, no?

In that time period which three year old Arc winners should not have been good enough to win an Arc?

Come to that:
Which filly Arc winners should not have been good enough to win an Arc?

If there is a discrepency then it’s surely only a matter of a pound here and there and basically made no difference to recent impressive Arc winners.

The allowance that is extremely unfair is 2 year olds having a massive advantage taking on their elders. Why more don’t try baffles me.

I thought Heartache was well worth a pop at the L’Abbaye after winning The Flying Childers but she had been due a pop at the Cheveley Park instead.

Maybe there is this child-like belief that these speedy sorts can be a Guineas horse in the Spring but nearly all of them seem to fail.

Maybe Capri will be an excellent 1m 6F to 2m horse next season. That doesn’t mean he would have won the Arc.

As far as I am aware, no St Leger winner has gone on to win the Arc the same year. Ginger has already explained why it’s so hard to do.

Capri didn’t run to his Leger mark but it was always likely to be tough for him facing older and better horses at the good bit shorter trip. He didn’t bomb out, he simply suffered the fate of several others who have tried a tougher assignment after a couple of tough wins against his own age group.

It looked a better Leger this year, certainly miles ahead of the slow coaches that turned up to fight it out after Idaho fell last year. Time will tell how good it really was. Stradivarius was dropping from 2 miles and Crystal Ocean may have been a bit unsuited by the extra distance he was covering.

The biggest mystery I have with Enable is how she was ever beaten by Shutter Speed and Raheen House. That may well be a Trivial Pursuit question of the future.

I saw Gosden sitting calmly just before the race “Bulling” a sandwich in him. He looked like a man who knew the job was done and it was all about just watching another entry in his personal CV about to take place. Like the British Open, the name was already half engraved on the trophy as they (she actually) hit the line.

@BigG
Thanks Graham for your support I couldn’t copy over all the different comments I think quotes were on overload.. but as you said if judge had read my post properly he would have seen that I am anything but an O’Brien fan and I’m always taking him on,I don’t think I have ever tipped up an AOB horse,I am more obsessed with Frankel progeny hands up to that.

Anyway was just defending the horse Capri who had a bad day on Sunday. I didn’t have a penny on him.

Have you ever gone into work judge not feeling 100 per cent?..its hard to put in a good day when you’re under the weather and Capri deserves another chance.

Lots of common sense talked on here, as it should be on a Forum, if we all agreed it would be boring.. Jac

Pete2014 wrote:

LostSoldier3 wrote:

It’s hard to tell though, isn’t it? We can only guess at the progression these mares might have made from 3-4 (if any).

You look back and you remember Danedream, Treve etc as great horses because of what they did in the Arc. Perhaps a combination of the visual memories and the usual swirl of post-race hype makes you forget the ridiculous weight differential and think they were further superior than the reality of it.

Would Danedream have won off level weights against So You Think and St Nicholas Abbey? Would Enable have beaten Cloth Of Stars or Ulysses off level weights at Longchamp? Would Zarkava have beaten Youmzain and Soldier Of Fortune?

I don’t believe you’d make ‘yes!’ shorter than 5/6 off levels for any of those.

Danedream and Enable are the only fillies to win the Arc and the KG. Treve is one of two fillies in history to win two Arcs. Those were historic achievements. Furthermore Treve and Danedream won big quality races as four year olds sometimes conceding weight. Zarkava won all her races comfortably, beating Goldikova and Da Re Mi off level weights.

I´ll gladly accept that Taghrooda took advantage of her own weight and the most god awful KG field ever, but that´s not really the case for those other fillies.

It´s pretty simple imho. We have been blessed with some all time great fillies in Zarkava, Danedream, Treve and Enable recently. Might add Snow Fairy to the list.

Sometimes they just come in waves. From 1972 to 1983 you had eight fillies win the Arc. Then one win in 24 years. The drought in the KG was even longer. No winner in 29 years.

Might also be something in that old chestnut that fillies are better in the autumn too but that would hardly apply to Enable

There is nothing in the allowances. They are there for a reason and endlessly scrutinised. Countless thousands of races have created the template and one Danedream doesnt diminish that

judge wrote:

almost every day these days jac I don’t feel 100 percent

LOL judge..keep taking the tablets perhaps a few nice winners on Champions Day will ease the pain. Jac