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The one statistic I always relied on heavily was that 2 out of 5 odds on shots gets beaten.
I was going to post this under the each way thread but as it concerns GNR I will post it here.<br>Before the race if you had to pick a horse that would make the frame the certain you would have picked GNR.I had a small e/w touch on him and he always looked like being placed at the least.Superb suff from McCoy.
You have to judge each individual case on its own merits.I don’t want to harp on about this but at Christmas I told anyone who would listen that Florida Pearl was the each way bet of all time.
After I posted my book here on Friday night I went to betfair.com to see if I could lay LLT at odds on.It was possible to back him at 11/10 but if you wanted to lay him you had to go 7/4 which I certainly wasn’t prepared to do.<br>As for the race itself I was tempted to back Bellator but I would need to see him jump off before putting any money down and as I consider my local betting office to be jinxed and inhabited by bogeys I decided no bet was the option.<br>As for the race I thought it was a pity that Upgrade or Bellator didn’t get away but it was the nicest possible comeback for LLT.
Having checked the RP online the differences are:<br>Looks Like Trouble RP 4/6 Luke 6/4<br>Whitenzo RP 9/2 Luke 5/1 <br>Bellator/Upgrade RP 13/2 Luke 7/2<br>Celibate RP 10/1 Luke 14/1<br>For me the logical thing to do would be go to a betting exchange and try lay LLT at 8/11.Bellator looks big at 13/2 IF he jumps off.
Ali asked earlier about compiling a book and what is taken into consideration.Having just seen the overnight decs for Wincanton tomorrow here is my idea of the betting for the John Bull.<br> Looks Like Trouble 6/4<br>Whitenzo 5/1<br>Bellator 7/2<br>Celibate 14/1<br>Upgrade 7/2
The assumptions I used were as follows<br>1)The final sp percentage will be somewhere between 106&112%<br>2)Looks Like Trouble is supposedly between 80&85% fit.The distance is short of his best.Noel Chance wont want to see the horse disgraced.In my opinion he could run well tomorrow but I just couldn’t have him for the Gold Cup.<br>3)Bellator & Upgrade are hard to seperate.Bellator will possibly refuse but ha some ood form.<br>4)Celibate -Couldn’t rule him out entirely.
Suny Bay-I was a big fan of Arzi but I have to say Johannesburg was campaigned more aggressively then him.From Royal Ascot to Belmont taking in how many Group 1s in between.
Daylight in my opinion there is no program in the world that could possibly make a book.If I see the overnight declarations for the big meetings I can make a book which is someway similar to the following days Racing Post.Twenty years of experience goes into this and I doubt any program could make an accurate book for a novice chase at Cheltenham.
Smithy -would any other trainer have taken Johannesburg to the Breeders Cup after the campaign that he had.
At one stage the vast majority of my bets were each way but these days I am more selective.I went to have a biggish bet on Beau for the National this lunchtime at 33s with Ladbrokes with the intention of having it win only(the price was cut so I didn’t bother).Each way betting definitely has its advantages.<br>Escorial if you don’t understand or use sp percentages you will just be another mug punter
Thinking about it wasn’t there a good example some years ago when JPs horse won a handicap hurdle at the Cheltenham festival.The price on offer was 9/1 but JPs men were only offered 7/1 so no bets were struck.Can’t remember the name of the horse.I don’t think it was Time For A Run.
So can I take it that those people who think a winner is a winner take no notice of the sp percentage.
Like Rory I would put the four miler as one of my favourites due to various punting successes over the years.<br>Rory a couple of days before Lorcan Wyer won the 4 miler on Omerta he had won on Canute Express at Chepstow.Those were the days when Homer Scott seemed invincible.<br>Natalie -Adrian Maguire did win on Omerta but that was in the Kim Muir some years later(first ride in England).
I think Steve M has a definite point regarding Intikhab who must be the most over-rated horse of the last decade.In my mind there is a big doubt about Dubai Millenium,his Grp 1 wins at 3 were on bottomless ground<br>against a handful of opponents.The World Cup is run at a time when most European horses are just being prepared for the new season.<br>Forget the Godolphin hype after DM died Frankie said "he was one of the best horses I ever rode".<br>One of the best.
