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That ground looks desperate given how they finished in the Coronation Cup – middle of the track may be the best of both worlds, quite frankly they could be coming up the straight all over the shop.
With all this rain I am starting to think that Pierre might be the one of Aidan’s now – I think 12F is the minimum trip he wants (won over 10F as a two year old on very soft ground).
The favourite hated the heavy ground at Doncaster last season and has a fast ground action to boot so the more rain that falls the less it will suit, Item is unproven on the ground but I note his dam did win one of her three races on soft ground when trained here and the half brother won twice on good to soft.
Ground on the far side is quicker based on the result of the just run Princess Elizabeth Stakes – brave move by Laura Pearson on Sparks Fly but boy did it pay off, won it by miles. Think the field will stay far side now.
Moehat – I am convinced Frankel would have won the Derby that year and would have stayed 12F as a three year old let alone as a 4yr old, he won his first race over 1m on soft ground on Newmarket’s July course which has a stiff uphill finish and we all saw what he did in the Royal Lodge at Ascot over 1m.
I know Sir Henry was always worried that he wouldn’t settle early in his races especially give the natural speed he had but when he ran him after that 2000g next in the St James’s Palace Stakes he settled perfectly fine and we all saw how well he settle in front in the Sussex Stakes after Ascot so in retrospect I think it wouldn’t have been an issue.
It is notable how much stamina he imparts on his offspring and yes I know the dam plays a big part in that side of things too but he has sired Yorkshire Cup, St Leger and Ascot Gold Cup winners and most of his best progeny have been middle distance horses.
To me the only quibbles I had with Frankel’s career was the fact they didn’t go to the Derby and after that as a 4 yr old they should have stepped him up to 10F in the POW at Royal Ascot especially given what he did in the Queen Anne, in that form imagine what he would have done to So You Think in the POW – baring in mind that Farhh (beaten 7L in the Juddmonte later that season) was only beaten 2L by So You Think).
She was the only horse to break 12s for the last furlong and she was the only one that went under 12s for the last 4F. Her finishing FSP was 111.01% and she also recorded the top speed of 38.71mph.
The sectionals are very interesting as there is a lot of slow and very slow to par furlongs in the second half of the race, everyone of the field bar the winner and K Sarra run the first furlong faster than par (those two ran it fast to par) – Sugar Island was the only horse to run the 2nd furlong very fast to par, a further 3 ran it fast to par with the remaining 5 running it to par.
The 6th furlong everyone ran fast to par (bar Sugar Island who ran to par) but after that there were only 3 subsequent individual furlongs that were run at par or faster – the first two both ran to par for 9th furlong and then the winner ran the last furlong fast to par whilst Legacy Link ran it slow to par with the rest of the field all running it very slow to par.
Might indicate that the ground on the whole of the round course is a bit more testing than the official good to soft description – many jockeys have reported it as soft ground while a few have said its good to soft. Interestingly with any potential rain overnight likely to fall on the opened up ground down the stand side and a new strip of ground on the far side being used tomorrow could it be that today’s unused ground on the far side will be riding slight faster than the stand side?
She seems to have improved markedly from two to three and with that rapid rate of improvement, who knows where she will end up, she certainly has a high cruising speed and change of gear to go with it.
This is also Frankel’s 4th Oaks winner since 2019, 3 of which have come in the last 4 years.
20mm overnight and a further 5mm this morning on ground ground artificially watered to be good (good to firm in places) prior to the rain.
It is now described as good to soft (good in places) – had they not watered last week (after already watering to ensure good ground for Breakfast with the Stars morning) the ground naturally after this rain would have likely been no worse than good and with the unsettled and cooler forecast this week (which means the course won’t dry very quickly) any more bits of rain would make it good to soft at worse.
Now if said bits of rain that are forecast this week are (like last night) worse than forecast then we could be looking at soft ground and given that they are racing on Friday which could open the ground up any more rain going into Saturday could make it very testing.
They could easily have held off watering last week until this rain band passed through which would have still given them plenty of time to water before Friday if the rain wasn’t as much as forecast or didn’t come at all.
Those fluent actioned fast ground loving horses have once again had their chances compromised by this incessant need to water to provide at best good ground and in some cases even good to soft for Summer flat racing, which wherever possible should always be aimed to be run on good to firm ground – the Lingfield Derby & Oaks trials were run on good to firm ground so (weather permitting) why can’t the Derby/Oaks be the same as we know Lingfield is the closest replica course to Epsom and nobody seemed to have any qualms about coming downhill at Lingfield on fast ground.
This continued overwatering is ensuring that the breed is getting weaker (as more and more horses being bred will need softer ground and won’t be able to act on traditional summer flat racing ground), it is even worse for NH racing as we hear more trainers threatening not to run horses on ground that doesn’t have soft in the description.
A COTC’s job is to provide safe ground and only intervene when the weather doesn’t look like playing ball – good to firm with no jar in it is perfectly safe ground and if you happen to have a horse that likes softer ground then (just like those that like faster ground but in the Autumn it ends up being too soft) you either don’t run your horse or roll the dice.
Rant over……..probably
They better hope for a dry Autumn – if the ground is anything like last year he won’t get home. I would have thought that the Juddmonte/Irish Champion/Champion Stakes would be the obvious races for him if they want to give him a break.
I think people got a little carried way with the visual performance of his Chester win and thus might view today’s performance as a little underwhelming – I think he is a good horse but will undoubtedly be another one added to the list of those heavily burdened by Aidan’s hyperbole.
I also wouldn’t lose faith in the very inexperienced Daryzan who was hopelessly positioned on the inside rail at the back but ran on to be 7th beaten just 3L….he would have learned an awful lot today but given the abundance of stars Graffard has at 10-12F he might be difficult to place.
GM23 – He doesn’t have the speed of CR, I think if he held onto him for longer CR would have beaten him further as it would have turned more into a speed test so he thought the only way to win was to drag the speed out of them given that Montreal’s two runs as a two year old were over 1m whilst the first time CR went further than 7F was at Chester last time out.
CR still has an entry in the St James’s Palace and Aidan has spoken that he believes he has the speed to drop back to 1m whilst Montreal holds an Irish St Leger entry and with him being by Sea The Stars out of a dam that has a lot relations that have won over 2m on the flat and over hurdles I would expect to see him progress more as he goes up in trip.
Think the margins may have flattered the 2nd and 3rd a little given CR’s wide draw and how much ground Ryan decided to give away before finally joining the rest of the field but I think Montreal would benefit most by a step up to 12F and could even by their St Leger horse.
Team tactics (in the best way) employed to perfection – nobody else was allowed to got involved, they certainly picked the right race to run CR in and given the state he got in behind the stalls (sweating profusely under the saddle and a bit of foam around the mouth) he battled on really well but I am not sure he would be wanting another 2F.
The hole they found on the other course swallowed the whole length of a walking stick and I did hear one of the presenters say part of the course sat on the old Haydock Colliery (coal mine).
Friendly Soul was extremely lucky not to be seriously injured considering how deep the hole was and I can only think that she didn’t land directly over it as she stumbled.
I know they had a lot of rain earlier last week but could that along with the over watering also have played a part in this issue?
Issues with Haydock and it is not looking promissing as they are looking to move back onto the course they used yesterday (after a whole was found on the new track with Friendly Soul almost coming down) but a jockey has now found a hole on the previously used track.
Abandonment looks the most likely.
Looking at it on my Mac (with a 27″ screen) it was a bit jarring at first trying to find things but I have to say I am getting used to it although I am not sure if it would work as well on a mobile device with a much smaller screen.
Clicking on the Spotlight button does give you those few lines on each horse and the Quote+ button (which you can add from the Card Options setting button) gives you a quote on the horse from the Stable Tour.
Assuming they have a reason for the change but whether that is just lip service and can be justified is anyone’s guess but given time we will all get used to it and then somewhere down the line when they change it again we will no doubt bitch about another change……such is life.
Oscar – I get what you are saying and personally I hope he wins as Trawlerman is very long in the tooth now (8yrs old and you have to go back to Yeats for the last 8 yr old to win it) and I would very much like to see someone other than Aidan or Gosden win the race – in the last 12 years only three times has the race gone to someone other than them two.
No guarantee either of them will stay the 2m4f trip but Scandi looks like one of those horses that only ever does enough regardless of the type of opposition he faces (last 4 wins by a combined winning distance of just under 3L).
Rahiebb reminds me a little bit of a horse Sir Henry trained in the equally as big Manifest, who (following a 2L 2nd to Harbinger who later that season went on to win that King George) won the Yorkshire Cup beating Ebor winner and Melbourne Cup runner up Purple Moon by 8L and looked like the next future staying star. He ran next in the Gold Cup and was 2nd favourite but quickly came off the bridle 4F out and was virtually pulled up (reportedley lost a shoe) in the straight some 72L behind the winner Rite of Passage, with the aforementioned Purple Moon 6L back in 3rd. Sadly Manifast never ran again.
Not saying the same will happen to Rahiebb but there is a massive difference between excelling at 1m6f or even 2m (as Scandi has) to being able to stay 2m4f at Ascot. Yes I know Aidan knows what it takes to be successful in the race (although I think both Yeats and Kyprios were freaks) but it also proved a step too far for Illinois last year who had a similar profile to Scandi.
Not a betting man but I think Trawlerman at 100/30 looks a great price and he has the form in the book, he stuffed Illinois last year and was the only one to push Kyprios the year before that and hopefully by the time Ascot comes around the yard will be in better form – assume he will reappear at Sandown in the Henry II like last season.
He is the yardstick that the other two (and anyone else) have to go and prove they can beat and they will have to properly outstay him to do that.
A big jump from his first two runs – was a bit fresh early on but I liked the way he travelled and finished off the race as it looked like Action was going to give him a battle but he pulled away from him the further they went whilst still looking a little green in front.
Interesting that he almost halved in price minutes before the start of the race so someone clearly knew something – he will come on for the run being his seasonable debut and it will be interesting to see how he handles Epsom especially the prelims.
