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Having just seen Midday walking around the parade ring,i have to say she is the size of a bull,i have seen her looking a lot tighter than that in the past so in my opinion will improve a ton for this run,i have always liked her stable companion so have had a bet on her instead.
Timepiece
£100 win 5/1 Bet365 2.0pm York
£1250
My original Hambleton selection Balcarce Nov is a non-runner so i have taken
St Moritz
at 8/1 instead,his run behind the potential Group 1 winner Side Glance was better than the bare form shows as he was giving the winner 3lb that day and there is no horse of that quality in this,he did beat my original selection at Doncaster the other week too,that was the deciding factor to go with Balcarce as he was 8lb better off for 3/4l today,i like this fellow a lot and if he needs to battle he will,he has to have a great chance of at least a place and also holds Dandys stable mate on last years form.
St Moritz
£50 e/w 8/1 BetFred, York 3.0pm
£1350I remember vividly
Workforce
being beaten in the Dante last year,it certainly left more questions than answers,’Zarkava’ was quick to mention how bad the stats were too regarding his Derby chances and the reason i mention that is because it wouldn’t surprise me if this years Derby winner actually comes second today.I am absolutely certain
Seville
wants 11/2m,i can see him powering up the Epsom straight and going clear at the 2 pole,obviously i want him to show he has a bit of speed too so victory today would just cement my opinion of him,i reckon he will go off 6/4fav today.Another horse who really doesn’t want to be coming back in trip is World Domination,he could find this trip on the short side as he looked better the further he went at Newbury.I believe Carlton House is the 11/4m horse and todays conditions could be ideal for him,however i like the fact that connections of Yaseer are not afraid to take him on again that tells you something about the confidence in him.I hope its run in a proper Group race gallop and
Seville
shows why i rate him on a par with Workforce.
I like the Hambleton handicap at York tomorrow,i put up Fareer on here for it last year and he duly obliged,that same race was where
Balcarce Nov
first caught my eye and having been beaten only two heads he now meets the winner on 11lb better terms,this fellow again had me making a note of his performance when giving another fav of mine Ransom Note 9lb again over C/D when trying to make all last year,i wouldn’t be surprised to see a repeat of those tactics tomorrow from box 3 and off a mark of 96 i am expecting a big run.
Balcarce Nov
£50 e/w 14/1 Bet365
£1450
This Class 2 5f handicap at York tomorrow looks weak in depth to me,i look at it and say what could actually win an Ayr Gold cup here? Dandys Courageous,possibly,but nothing else catches my eye except a horse who has actually been beaten in a photo finish in an Ayr Gold Cup finishing just in front of my banker for the race Evens and Odds,this fellow has also won a Group 3 in the last year so age is not a problem and he holds the Course record over the extended 5f here at York,at 25/1
Barney Mcgrew
off a mark of 100 is jumping off the page at me, his form is head and shoulders above the rest of the field so if he runs to form he has to be placed at worse.I expect to see money for him!
Barney Mcgrew
£50 e/w William Hill 25/1
£25 e/w Stan James 25/1
£25 e/w Bet365 20/1£1450
For the first time in my 28yr ‘career’ i have been knocked back by a Bookmaker,having watched the re-run of the Duke of York and knowing Regal Parade was in tip top condition i am even more impressed with
Delegator
winning at only 85% peak fitness,a repeat performance of that at Royal Ascot at 100% fitness will make him very difficult to beat in the Golden Jubilee.Corals wouldn’t give me their 14/1 after the race and have had to settle for £150 e/w at 12/1.They must be confusing me with someone else!
Delegator
£150 e/w Golden Jubilee 12/1 Corals.
£1650Nice to see you back "King".
Hope Delegator and Seville win for us both.
Cheers Ginger,that was a tough call for me there as i am a big fan of Regal Parade and i know it takes a good one to get past him,i just felt he needed a tougher 6f or at least softer ground whereas everything was in Delegators favour other than Simon ‘CONfident’ Chrisford!! Pleased you kept the faith in
Delegator
as his Guineas form was key.I still wish Aidan had at least gave Rip Van Winkle one chance over 6f in the July Cup as he would have hosed in!
Ever since he finished 2nd to Sea the Stars in the 2000gns i have been hoping connections would drop
Delegator
back to 6f as he has always been a horse who travels well in his races,admittedly he has been known to dissapoint on occassions but i think there are only 3 genuine Group 1 horses in this race (Markab and Regal Parade) being the other 2 so i would be dissapointed if he is not placed at least,it takes a lot for me to let Regal go today but i will stick with my opinion about Delegator.
Delegator
£150 e/w 7/1 Bet365 1/4 place.
£1950
Surely it’s easier to use Mourad (& to a lesser extent Quevega) to assess the collateral form. His runs behind HF in the Hattons Grace and BB in the Stayers Hurdle suggest that there wouldn’t be too much between them over 2m4+.
BTW, Walsh said on RTÉ after Friday’s race that Hurricane Fly was the best hurdler he’d ever ridden. Read into that what you like…
Your formlines concur with my own Imperial,suggesting barely a length would seperate them,of course there is only one man who can say which one would win and thats Ruby and if he says The Hurricane is the best he has ridden then that will do for me,mind you Hayley did assure me Syrian was a Guineas horse!
Big Bucks
v
Hurricane fly
over
2,1/2m
Collateral form is the only way of assessing the outcome of this heavyweight clash,Karabak has been beaten by Big Bucks over 3m on all 3 occassions easily,Karabak has beaten Celestial Halo over 21/2m both running to marks of about 163,Celestial Halo has been beaten by Solwhit easily too over the trip and Binocular has beaten Celestial over 2m on several occassions,however Hurricane fly has laughed at Solwhit and Binocular over both 2m amd 21/2m touching the 170 mark.Big Bucks beating Won in the Dark at Aintree over 3m by 12 lengths and Hurricane Fy beating the same horse over 2m by 14 lengths at Leopardstown is probably the key piece of form as both races were run at the contenders ideal trips so to evaluate the winner over the intermediate trip of 21/2m suggests by just 1 length the winner is
Hurricane Fly
. That wasn’t too difficult to work out!
Kingfisher, making a tissue should involve getting as much information as possible, Timeform is a useful tool, but not the only one. If you made an accurate tissue you should be able to see where the value lies, which might or might not be the best horse in your opinion.
Ginger in making your tissue do you rate the following,
Trainer,
Jockey,
Distance,
Going,
Overall Form &
Recent FormBecause according to Mark Cotton Book on value betting this is the way to study a race?
Ok so you ‘Tissue’ makers want to waste/spend an hour or so going through a race just to see what prices you come up with that differ from those that are available from all bookmakers who actually employ their own odds compilers.Why? Bearing in mind you are only influencing yourselves with your own biased opinion anyway. Take this weeks Lockinge as an example,i have just clicked onto Oddschecker, spent all of one minute looking at all the prices available (saving me from creating my own tissue) and the ‘Value’ bet jumps off the page at me
Cityscape
at 14/1,if any of the forecast rain arrives he will be single figures and dont tell me Canford Cliffs is Value at 4/6 either!
Information provided by sportinglife and racingpost is simply not accurate enough to produce a good tissue. All imo.
Really! So bearing in mind your tissue is quite simply your own opinion on things anyway,what does it actually achieve in the scheme of winner finding other than your favourite for a race might differ from someone elses?
Submission
Number 4, Drawn 8 the horse in yellow with blue stars,
http://horses.sportinglife.com/Video/Ra … 29,00.html
Pinza take a look.
by working my 100% book on Frankel’s official 130 rating is seriously under-estimating his ability. So my price to beat for Frankel would be far too big and his rivals too short by using 130 as a guide.
By working out your prices to 142 means you will have Frankel shorter than he should be and others bigger Ginger,i can see you offering 10/1
Dick Turpin
in a match at this rate!
I was a bit dismayed when told Timeform don’t do part seasons anymore for Perspective, just yearly.
Then found out I can pay £90 to start with (start of May), then instalments of £45 monthly from June.
By stopping the Direct Debit at the end of October I only pay £315 instead of around £600 per year.
I have been thinking of going over to Race Passes or Computer Timeform. Have any TRFers gone over to Race Passes or Computer Timeform from Perspective? And how does it compare / is it better / is it worth the extra cost?
Your opinions would be appreciated.
Your own opinion is what you depend on to create your 100% books surely Ginger,so why are you so obsessed with Timeform? Why would anybody pay £600 a year for something that offers no more than the Sporting Life and Racing Post Web sites do for free.
I can work out my 100% book easier with a definate figure of 142.
You can work out your 100% book with Frankels official rating of 130 just as easily Ginger,pure nonsense to suggest he could have won by 8 lengths and so award him a hypothetical rating of 142 for beating Dubawi Gold a very generous 6 lengths, something both Canford Cliffs and Dick Turpin can do with ease.
Submission’s trainer, Luca Cumani, says in today’s Stable Tour in the Post that "the race didn’t pan out for her and she didn’t have the best of rides".
What concerns me about the ride is that rarely do you see a Cumani horse gambled on like that one these days,that was defineately a stable job that cut her from 16/1 to 6/1 and yet even allowing for the poor ride excuse,the filly should still have finished 3rd at worse,Guillambert never touched her,i would have imagined he of all people would have known there was going to be a gamble on her and realising he had lost all chance of winning would have been riding hell for leather to at least salvage place money.If that filly is a 79 rated horse my names Ruprect.
