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The ‘Al Rayan’ is proving to be one helluva form guide to future winners and horses who have ran exceptionally since,i backed
Novellen lad
earlier today at 24’s on the machine because he had contended it,it helped that he had given weight to the likes of Hawkeyethenoo too in the past but thats another story,the horse i watched that day was Dandys
Silaah
who tried to make all and his finishing position doesn’t tell the whole story,i think today back at his home course at Thirsk,Silaah will fly out of box 12 grab the rail and make all,i like Dandys horses at Thirsk and have been lucky with the likes of Fol Hollow,Machinist and Valery Borzov in the past.Watch the Masta do me now!
Silaah
£300 win 3/1 Stan James 4,25pm Thirsk
£3206
The 5,0pm at Thirsk today has just caught my eye as 2 of my old pals are running in the 5f sprint there,
Strike up the Band
and Indian Trail,i notice Strike is over twice the price of the Indian and its very rare i get Dandys horses wrong,i am confident Strike will beat Indian,even with the assistance of Trotter,i just hope he can beat the rest of the field for a change.
Strike up the Band
£50 e/w 16/1 Bluesq 5,0pm Thirsk
£3506
I cant understand why Pollys mark is the 15/8fav for the Aston Park Stakes today as i make it a match between the one paced Akmal who loves fast ground and Luca Cumanis
Drunken sailor
,i prefer the latter as he has ran some great races in defeat,notably against my pal Overturn,he gave him a stone in the Pitmens Derby last year and almost the same against the useful Free Agent later on at York,he deserves this.
Drunken Sailor
£300 win 100/30 Stan James, 2,0pm Newbury.
£3606
My banker of the weekend is
Wootton Bassett
,one of only 2 3yo’s who would give the Monster Frankel a race,if he turns up and runs to form he wins,simple as that,no need to elaborate.
Wootton Bassett
£400 win 7/4 Paddy Power Frch 2000gns.
£2906
Whats the biggest certainty of the weekend?
Canford Cliffs
at 4/5 or
Wootton Bassett
at 7/4.The Lockinge looks a cracker,i am loyal to my horses and have 3 in this that have been good to me,i have been hoping for rain all week just to make my decision easy and that would have been
Cityscape
at around the 16/1 mark,he is a Group 1 winner in waiting,it doesn’t look like transpiring though.If the ground stays as it is i have to stay loyal to
Red Jazz
,i have always thought the world of this colt and he did me proud getting placed behind Poets Voice and Rip Van winkle at 66/1 last year.If someone said you have to have a £1000 win on one horse in it though i would say Dick Turpin even though he looks more like Black Bess.
Red Jazz
£50 e/w 10/1 (without fav) 3 places Paddy Power.
£3306
Good stuff, some nice winners there KF.
You were unlucky with Barney McGrew as well. He was the only horse I bet this week, and thought beforehand, that he had a solid ew chance at a decent price, but he just didn’t get a run. Worth another look I think in the future.
Thats a very diplomatic view VTC, my Eyecatcher of the week that one,i shall watch his entries closely,Wokingham even!
http://horses.sportinglife.com/Video/Ra … 10,00.html
Cheers.
Gord.One has to hand it to you KF – you certainly can spot a winner.
Top stuff.
Cheers David, modesty forbids and that!
This 4.10 is a tough handicap at York and i am finding it tough to split
Horseradish
and
Hoof it
,the former doesn’t want it too firm and the latter might just prefer 5f,however both are potential Group/listed horses in the making.
Horseradish
£50 e/w 5/1 Corals 4.10pm York
Hoof it
£50 e/w 15/2 William Hills 4,10pm York
£3406I shall take note of your Oaks and Derby Day selections if they are up before i travel
Cheers GDC,my Derby horse is called
Seville
he had an excercise gallop around the Knavesmire yesterday to wake him up from his slumber,he will be wide awake on Derby day rest assured!
There’s only one filly who could have ran in the 1000gns in this 3,0pm at York and thats
Theyskens Theory
,again i take her fitness on trust but York is a class meeting where class horses run and i believe she is different class to this field,i shall have an interest bet as i like her form with 2 very good Godolphin horses,Blue Bunting and White Moonstone.
Theyskens theory
£100 win 11/4 Corals 3,0pm York
£2925
If
Duncan
is in the right frame of mind,ie like the day he ran against Harbinger at Ascot then he really is different class to this field,his time that day was superb and we all know the clock never lies.I am certainly giving him the benefit of the doubt.
Duncan
£300 win 3/1 Tote, Yorkshire Cup
£2650
I have a sneaky feeling that
Crackentorp
can run a big race today even though he has never actually won a race on turf but his 2nd in this race last year to Hanoverian Baron stands out particularly now that he is a massive 13lb better off for just over 2 lengths,i can see his stablemate
Deauville flyer
also making his mark with Kieren Fallon on,he too looks attractively marked and holds The Fonz on C/D running.
Deauville flyer
£100 e/w 12/1 Bet365 2,0pm York
Crackentorp
£50 e/w Bet365 16/1 Bet365 2.0pm York
£1750
The horse at a price that may come back into the picture is Nathaniel, i think this one will go very well in the St Leger but may now be able to run into a place or better with the race being run ti suit, the long straight will without doubt assist him.
Bring on the 4th June
I agree with you GDC,
Nathaniel
really caught my eye at Chester,that performance had St Leger written all over it,i wouldn’t put anybody off backing him for the Derby either,he is an e/w price at 33/1 with Stan James.
KF: Good luck with your O’Brien horse BUT how you think Seville will turn the tables on Carlton House is beyond me.
GDC,6 months ago i narrowed the Derby field down to 3 horses,(re,TAPK notes).Sea Moon, Carlton House and
Seville
,i put them up at 16/1,20/1 and 14/1 respectively,Sea moon was the pricewise selection and even though he hasn’t shown anything yet i’m sure he will,that narrowed it down to 2,i could say i took the 20/1 about Carlton House but i didn’t,i made a decision that was based on who did i think would get round Epsoms 11/2m the quickest and after much thought and study i decided on Seville. After todays result many will think i tossed a coin wanting heads and its come up tails,i’m not so sure,first thing neither were 100% fit today,both will come on a ton,the pace suited the speed horse and i always thought Carlton House was the speedier thats why i think his best trip will still be 11/4m,Seville on the other hand did a steady piece of work for 1m today,Christophe had quite a hold on him,when push came to shove the quicker horse won,Carlton House is a big brute of a horse,his action is rounder than Sevilles and there’s a bit of temperament,a hot sunny Derby day on fast ground and he has to be a Workforce to win,he well may be.Seville if given a ‘At first Sight’ sort of pacemaker will relish the step up in trip a faster surface and the whole experience,its between the 2 and may the best horse win,i have backed Seville from 16/1 down to 5/1 and even taken a bit of 7/1 after todays event,7/4 Carlton House is too short considering Epsom will be a whole different ball game imho.
If
Margot did
what she was capable of then her form through Memory and Hooray is well above the odds on favourites,i shall take yet another risk on her anyway!
Margot Did
£200 win at SP.
£1650
My original Hambleton selection Balcarce Nov is a non-runner so i have taken
St Moritz
at 8/1 instead,his run behind the potential Group 1 winner Side Glance was better than the bare form shows as he was giving the winner 3lb that day and there is no horse of that quality in this,he did beat my original selection at Doncaster the other week too,that was the deciding factor to go with Balcarce as he was 8lb better off for 3/4l today,i like this fellow a lot and if he needs to battle he will,he has to have a great chance of at least a place and also holds Dandys stable mate on last years form.
St Moritz
£50 e/w 8/1 BetFred, York 3.0pm
I remember vividly
Workforce
being beaten in the Dante last year,it certainly left more questions than answers,’Zarkava’ was quick to mention how bad the stats were too regarding his Derby chances and the reason i mention that is because it wouldn’t surprise me if this years Derby winner actually comes second today.I am absolutely certain
Seville
wants 11/2m,i can see him powering up the Epsom straight and going clear at the 2 pole,obviously i want him to show he has a bit of speed too so victory today would just cement my opinion of him,i reckon he will go off 6/4fav today.Another horse who really doesn’t want to be coming back in trip is World Domination,he could find this trip on the short side as he looked better the further he went at Newbury.I believe Carlton House is the 11/4m horse and todays conditions could be ideal for him,however i like the fact that connections of Yaseer are not afraid to take him on again that tells you something about the confidence in him.I hope its run in a proper Group race gallop and
Seville
shows why i rate him on a par with Workforce.
Cant take anything away from the winner but Epsom is a different ball game.I’m more confident about
Seville
at this point than i was
Workforce
last year!
Exciting times.
