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There’s lies , damn lies and statistics.
If every race was run on statistics the fav would win every time! That’s the beauty of betting on them, it’s finding the answer when the majority haven’t.
If they aren’t backed they won’t win.
Just for the purpose of balance, I think it is only fair to mention that Kellystown Lad won in Ayr this week for the Murphy yard despite being friendless in the market at 12/1.
Although given that the odds on favourite ran out going past the stands and the second favourite looking quite reluctant on the run in, Graham Lee’s hand may have forced somewhat in this regard!
I don’t work in a stable or anything but some of you guys make me laugh the way you think all horses should run to win every time. Yes by the rules of racing they should but trainers are paid to get the best results and to do this they have to give horses experience etc.
In the case of Kellystown Lad , in a post race interview Murphy said that since getting him from the pointing field he had to teach him to settle and that was the reason for the two unplaced efforts previously. Now he is breaking the rules but it’s up to us punters to get into the mind of the trainer.
It’s like when a horse runs at a track because the owner is able to be there. Another track would suit the horse better so it’s one of those factors we are unaware of but have to factor in somehow.
Spanish Conquest broke down next to the final fence on the first circuit so there wasn’t room for the runners to get past on the run-in , and the race was stopped as they entered the home straight.
Something just occurred to me … why does Walsh never ride for anyone other than Nicholls?
Eh? Willie Mullins, Tony Martin, Ted Walsh, Tom Mullins, Noel Meade, Gordon Elliot, Paul Nolan, Liam Burke etc. Ruby rides for plenty of other yards.
Regarding Wally’s opening question, I don’t think AP is rated higher over here in Ireland but we see Ruby plying his trade on a regular basis whereas McCoy doesn’t ride over here as much as he used to a few years back.
Well obviously i meant in England seeing as they are all Irish trainers!
Something just occurred to me … why does Walsh never ride for anyone other than Nicholls?
I’d like to see him ride for less fashionable stables then there would be a clear comparison.
He is the best rider. AP can be brilliant but he has a fair few bad rides, Paddy Brennan (not just yesterday) is a consistently talented jock and Geraghty is right up there and there seems to be a lot of good youngsters coming through .Scholfield and Toole have had great runs of form and Popham is having his now.
When you see Walsh riding like he did on Twist Magic you see why he’s the best. AP was also good on Somersby but Walsh makes it look easy. His riding of Pocquelin in all his races this year is also testament to his jockeyship.
I only seem to come on here when i’ve backed a 14-1 winner. So that’ll be Thursday,Friday and Saturday this week, i’ve probably used up my luck for the rest of 2009 at least.
The horse is pure class on good ground , i would put him in the Gold Cup picture on good ground and he’s only six !
I take your point but at 14-1 he wasn’t expected to be in the shake up yesterday especially with his penalty, but he seems a much better horse over fences and jumps really well so although he looks better on tight right-handed tracks you never know until you go.
I would be cautious at somewhere like Newbury but might just give him the benefit of the doubt until he proves otherwise.
I’d backed Pocket Aces at 14-1 but i wouldn’t have enjoyed the win if the horse had been injured. I never bother about the jockeys either i just look to see if the horse gets up.
Which one was gonna win ? Pocket Aces was closing but Recif de Thai wasn’t beat by any means.
I didn’t pay particular attention to her jumping during the race but there was no way she would have picked the front two up in the straight.
I know it goes on but horses aren’t the complete package straight away and they need to learn. If backing a first-timer over hurdles you’re taking a risk.
There may well be a gamble next time out and why not cos she’ll have learned from the experience.
THanks for that but my budget is £2m and not a penny more.
That’s a shame he was a big part of the scene for a long time, he seemed to be unlucky in that his better horses got injured and couldn’t fulfil there potential.
It looks as though Nicky Richards has benefitted by getting Skippers Brig who’s a serious horse, and with Money Trix he’s looks set for some good prize money this year.
I think it’s fantastic that there’s a northern owner with oodles of dosh to spend on primarily National Hunt horses. It’s always interesting to see if they’ve come up with another Inglis Drever if that’s possible.
P.s. Well done to Amos,McNeill and Gillies on Lie Forritt’s success .On today’s performance he was taking the mick and there’s plenty left in the tank.
Don’t rate him – simples.
Yeah he has lots of winners, yeah he has big winners so where’s the logic – there isn’t any , i just don’t rate him same as Hobbs.
I get the impression that lots of horses should have done better than they did under those two.
Just an example today, i thought last year that Supreme Keano looked a nice horse making all and jumping well to win at Chepstow. In two runs this year AP has dropped him in and he’s jumped horribly. There may well be a reason for the change in tactics but if it aint broke don’t fix it.
Ferdy said before the race something along the lines of : either he’ll run into a place or he’ll hate the ground and the handicapper will drop him a few pounds – either way we can’t lose.
Unfortunately he couldn’t forsee a terrible outcome.
If i hadn’t already backed Well Chief i would have done as soon as i saw them going to post.
Masterminded was dull in his coat and a bit warm whereas Well Chief looked a picture of health.
They’re both great horses but obviously the form can’t be taken literally as Masterminded hung and Mahogany Blaze was too close at the finish.
So now we know …it was a prep run for going chasing.
Pays your money and you makes your choice.
i have long steered clear of this so called top stable quite often ap’s choice of rides are questionable at least, must be some retainer. i would lay any fancied runners all day and avoid like the plague. i work on stables in form there is no such thing with this stable good luck to you who believe jp.
Isn’t AP’s retainer with JP McManus who has a lot of horses with Jonjo?
As someone said to me the other day:
If JP’s is so rich that he can afford hundreds of horses why does he have so many bad ones?
On JJO : not a good stable and never says anything worthwhile when interviewed – have a look at the stable tour on the Post site (very enlightening
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