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Who do you think "puts the money down"?
Under the rules of racing the horse should be doing its best regardless.
Anyone know what happened with the Galant Nuit referral?
Filtered down to handicaps only, no novice’s running for a mark to skew the figures.
Handicaps Only
SP >15/2
Horse Held Up In Running
Jan 1st 2008+Ferdy Murphy ….. 3 ….. 207 ….. 1.45 ….. -168.92 ….. -81.61[/color:247jjzv4]
.Given that Murphy tends to ‘start slowly’ would splitting those figures into say Jan-June and July-Dec tells us any more I wonder?
The 3 winners , were Kitski (Feb 09), Kalmo Bay (Feb 08) and De Boitron (Jan 09).
41 of the 207 were pulled up (19.8%), some 48% greater then the UK average pull up rate of 13.3% in the same period (2008-2009)
I think you are missing a mathematical point cjboy
it is an interesting stat isnt it? For this to have some context, should be compared with other trainers results. I suspect the stats would tell a lot
FM isnt a trainer i have a great deal of time for frankly
I am sure the horses are doing their best whether or not some punters place their bets. I am just curious to know who is supposed to be backing in the horses when comments are made like:
"If they aren’t backed they won’t win."
and
"the Murphy yard IMO is generally one where the money talks."
and
"You can kiss your money goodbye, just 3 wins from 207 tries if the horse is held up and the money isn’t down."
The Galant Nuit referral went nowhere, as was correct. The horse was top rated by Timeform going into that race, and the previous run at Cheltenham, with an amateur rider on board, gave a good indication of the likelihood of a win, hence the price. Compare the performance of the winner of the same race at Cheltenham the previous year
If they aren’t backed they won’t win.
Just for the purpose of balance, I think it is only fair to mention that Kellystown Lad won in Ayr this week for the Murphy yard despite being friendless in the market at 12/1.
Although given that the odds on favourite ran out going past the stands and the second favourite looking quite reluctant on the run in, Graham Lee’s hand may have forced somewhat in this regard!
I don’t work in a stable or anything but some of you guys make me laugh the way you think all horses should run to win every time. Yes by the rules of racing they should but trainers are paid to get the best results and to do this they have to give horses experience etc.
In the case of Kellystown Lad , in a post race interview Murphy said that since getting him from the pointing field he had to teach him to settle and that was the reason for the two unplaced efforts previously. Now he is breaking the rules but it’s up to us punters to get into the mind of the trainer.
It’s like when a horse runs at a track because the owner is able to be there. Another track would suit the horse better so it’s one of those factors we are unaware of but have to factor in somehow.
[i:3ohs16dd]”It is disappointing, but I have had a great deal of support from all my owners. I haven’t lost a single horse as a result [of being exposed on national TV suggesting that leaving a horse in a field prior to a run and then laying it on betfair was a potential money making scheme]– in fact, I’ve actually got a couple more.” Ferdy Murphy[/i:3ohs16dd]
Be careful what you highlight folks, you’ll have owners knocking down Murphy’s door!
If the Murphy creatures were given 10 gallons of water on the way down to post you’d still have the tweed riddled, flat caps conjour an excuse.
They haven’t even looked at my figures judged by some of the responses on this thread.
Predictable or what?
There’s lies , damn lies and statistics.
If every race was run on statistics the fav would win every time! That’s the beauty of betting on them, it’s finding the answer when the majority haven’t.
There’s lies , damn lies and statistics.
I refer you the last line of my previous post.
“In the case of Kellystown Lad , in a post race interview Murphy said that since getting him from the pointing field he had to teach him to settle and that was the reason for the two unplaced efforts previously. “
How do other trainers manage to get their ex-pointers to learn to settle? You don’t see too many wild mustangs making their first start under Rules for Paul Nicholls. It should be borne in mind that this horse had actually managed to win three points in Ireland (when racing prominently on each occasion), so the excuse seems a bit thin on this occasion.
I strongly suspect that many posters on this thread have no knowledge of racing except from their Betfair accounts or the time spent chatting to the manager of the local Ladbrokes.
If they ever got close enough to smell a racehorse, never mind touch one, they would know that trainers are only interested in winners and will take a win in a seller at Sedgefield if it’s possible, rather than line up betting plots for mysterious people that nobody seems able to identify for me.
CJB (no flat cap)
“In the case of Kellystown Lad , in a post race interview Murphy said that since getting him from the pointing field he had to teach him to settle and that was the reason for the two unplaced efforts previously. “
How do other trainers manage to get their ex-pointers to learn to settle? You don’t see too many wild mustangs making their first start under Rules for Paul Nicholls. It should be borne in mind that this horse had actually managed to win three points in Ireland (when racing prominently on each occasion), so the excuse seems a bit thin on this occasion.
So Murphy’s either a bad trainer or a liar or both.
Ah opinion’s a wonderful thing.
There’s lies , damn lies and statistics.
I refer you the last line of my previous post.
I’ve looked at your figures and they show a trend…so what.
That’s knowledge you’ve got there, like knowing that Brennan wins on Tom George’s horses . It’s one piece in a huge jigsaw.
McCririck is a big stats man does that make him a great judge ? Different trainers have different training methods and we have to gather knowledge about the way they operate and apply it.
Different trainers have different training methods and we have to gather knowledge about the way they operate and apply it.
Your missing the point here completely.
This thread is not a lesson in how to profit from Ferdy Murphy non triers (imo).
The purpose is to illustrate and back up with HARD DATA the verbal criticism made by Hislop and Neesom a few weeks back. It seems Murphy is of the opinion that anyone criticising his runners should be removed from their jobs. I have examined that criticism and agree with the RUK pundits.
Piss poor that the only argument to my data is that horses never put in a race are part of the game, live with it and that fans of the sport who watch every race every day should have no opinion because they’ve never "smelt" a horse. Bollocks.
Racing would be a poor excuse for a sport if every trainer operated like Ferdy Murphy imo.
Take out merchant.
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