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I think this thread is a disgrace.
I think Ferdy is one of the best trainers ever to grace a racecourse and if you give him a mule he’ll win a race eventually with it. He does things his way and brings these horses along at their pace giving them all the time in the world to improve. That often includes giving the a run to bring them on. The man is an open book and if he thinks it won’t win he makes no secret of it hence the big prices they go off at. Anyone who follows the man wouldn’t have 10p on them.
Then one morning he wakes up goes to the gallops and all his hard work seems to have paid off.
The horse works better than he ever has done and he thinks….geez I should tell the lads to have a bet on that….big deal!!!..then these would be experts who know nothing about anything voice an opinion that’s worth nothing and downright insulting. They are supposed to be people who know racing but they act like this is some big surprise….oh look what we have discovered……they nee a good slap.
As far as non triers are concerned are any off you accusing Ferdy of stopping horses? Cos that’s what it seems like to me. There’s a huge difference between stopping one and giving him a run ro bring him on.
Those of you who are naive enough to think every horse should be ridden like the jockey’s life depended on it should take up knitting.
Didn’t we just watch a horse have a school in public on Saturday? I think you may have heard of him….Punjabi!
It’s all part of looking after a horses well being and doing the best job you can for the owners.
The very same Lydia would soon change her attitude if she had a horse not forward enough to be winning and some jockey knocked 10 bells out of him and set him back 6 months. I’m not denying that some of Ferdy’s could have finished a bit closer if the had been given a very hard ride but you can bet your life if the finsihed 8th nothing the jockey could have done would have promoted him into the first 3 or 4.
As in the case of Punjabi or any other horse there are no rules that say you can’t run a horse who needs a race…..hell there’s a wee Irish fella you all know who runs them a dozen at a time no where near ready to win…Ferdy does it his way others do it there way………accept it and move on.
I think this thread is a disgrace.
Its not a disgrace Fist,its an observation by numbers!The numbers are compelling evidence that as you say Ferdy does it his way!Anyone that governs their betting patterns by numbers,or statistics solely,will end up in the funny farm!I believe if you gave a quality horse to Ferdy Murphy,he could just aswell as any other trainer get the best out of it,take Kalahari King,his form figures are rock solid!Anyone that reads my notes will soon realise that 90% of my bets are on quality horses in quality races because there is far less chance of corruption,when owners trainers and jockeys are riding for prestigious awards and handsome prize money!I find it hard enough studying quality racing without the added dimension of trying to unravel what goes on,on the all weather!
At the end of the day,i would imagine everyone who contributes to this forum knows the "risks" is a polite way of putting it!!
involved with betting on humans riding horses! I think the sight of Somersby jumping the last in next years Arkle and bolting up the hill to victory,far outweighs Ferdy schooling one round Sedgefield but thats racing and i love it!Far from being a disgrace, some excellant work done by Cav, well done sir. Have often thought Ferdy’s horses seem to be "sympathetically" handled until the "big" day. Your stats do seem to back that up.
CJBoy,
You quoted that Galant Nuit was top rated by Timeform, as if that were justification of the horse’s last run on Oct 16th. However, you failed to point out what the minds of Halifax actually said about that run, where he finished 6th of 12 finishers.Timeform Perspective:
"…. shaped well on his first start for 5 months and can be expected to figure more prominently next time, dropped out and travelling comfortably for a long way, unable to make any impression when eventually asked to try and take closer order".For those not used to Timeform’s comments the "eventually asked" words look / looked to me the most important.
Now, it is very possible his amateur rider got it wrong, but I think people are justified to ask questions.
Yes, Galant Nuit did have the form to run a big race on Nov 14. But his EARLY price had quite a bit to do with it’s 6th of 12 position. Also, had Galant Nuit "showed" better form in October, his handicap mark may not have enabled him to win in November. Was that due to just a poorly thought out ride by an amateur or something else?
If it is an isolated case then it is probabably the former (a coincidence). If there seems to be a pattern there may be more to it, then surely questions should be asked.
Some justification of Lydia, Jonathon and Cav.
Value Is EverythingA little bit off-topic, but I interviewed Ferdy just after the Velka Parduicka this year. After seeing his horse run out after leading the race and no doubt probably feeling a bit disappointed, he could have easily told me to sling my hook, but no, he stood outside the weighing room at Pardubice and was only too happy to speak to me. Bearing in mind this was the first time I’d ever used my voice recorder at the races instead of the trusty pen and paper, I was pretty nervous, but he gave really good answers to my questions, and was an absolute gentleman.
I’m nowhere near as good with numbers as several on this forum and as far as betting goes, I’m about as thick as they come, but I checked the Racing Post website. This year, Murphy has a 13% strike rate. That’s actually more that Nigel Twiston-Davies, Philip Hobbs or Alan King! I know this isn’t including the 15/2 split that Cav mentioned, or the amount of hold up horses, but looking at Murphys figures from a ‘simple laymans’ point of view, Murphy doesn’t seem out of place in the standings.
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Excellent post Gord and you are correct it is an observation by numbers but we all know what can be done with them.
If you take Ruby Walsh’s statitistics for example and comapre them to AP’s you could say on balance Ruby would be champion jockey every year by a mile if he took the same number of mounts as the champ does.
The missing factor in that calculation is the quality of the animals each of them ride and it’s that same factor that you can’t allow for when comparing Ferdy’s figures to say Alan King or Paul Nicholls.
Ferdy wins races with some horses PN wouldn’t even keep in his yard and I think that speaks volumes of the man and when I read statements like "non triers" coming from someonewho hasn’t a clue what they are talking about it gets my back up.
I’m not saying for one minute presenters shouldn’t discuss different subjects during a programme but their number one asset should be their abilty to give good sound advice to the viewers on the runners.
Lydia is absoltely clueless and has been for years.
I can still remember her giving 6 to follow when he was with the BBC…..Mac’s Joy was one and did finish 2nd in the CH but the other 5 were a joke. One of them was a horse called Lord Sam, I forget who trained him but when she wrote he was going to beat Best mate in the Gold Cup I thought who is this woman….she’s stone mad. She hasn’t improved.
You can’t blame Ferdy for going nuts at this, anyone involved in racing worth knows how the man goes about his business and yes! he does tend to get them ready for certain races. Not because he’s some kind of crook but because he a genius at getting the very best out of a average animals when the prize money is worth chasing. If the man thought a horse was capable of winning every race it ran in over an entire season then he would train it to do so like he does with Kalahari King. Why on earth wouldn’t he?
Many many horses can’t stand up to competitive racing all season and may only be at their peak for a short period before losing their form. The trainer gets them fit they win one, maybe two races then the next thing you know they run like pigs for the rest of the season.
Ferdy simply reverses that and tries to get them to peak when it is most finacially rewarding……..that’s being a clever business man and not a thing wrong with it.Anyway this started over a horse was the supposidly eyecatching Frosty Boy. He wasn’t an unfancied 33/1 shot he was gambled from 6/1 to 5/1 on the day and didn’t run like a horse I would have been rushing to put into my notebook.
People may be surprised at Ferdy’s reaction but if the horse was trying it’s best then they picked the wrong time and the wrong man to be pulling up.
Beauty, or guilt, is in the eye of the beholder in my opinion.
I do hope Lydia Hislop, or Pearce come to that, is looking in and responds to Fist’s above post.
Could be interesting!
Colin
PS………I wouldn’t buy a second-hand car off Ferdy!
Fist wrote:
Lydia is absoltely clueless and has been for years.
Is this the same Fist who blew his bank on a long-running tipping thread with 900,000 pts on Canford Cliffs at 4/9 in the Morny?
…following up with the line:
F**ck you ignorant twat.lost my whole wad today that took me a year to make and will take me probably 2 years to recover….So keep your snide remaks to you fookin self axxhole////last bet I will ever have on the flat should have known better
Fist wrote:
Lydia is absoltely clueless and has been for years.
Is this the same Fist who blew his bank on a long-running tipping thread with 900,000 pts on Canford Cliffs at 4/9 in the Morny?
…following up with the line:
F**ck you ignorant twat.lost my whole wad today that took me a year to make and will take me probably 2 years to recover….So keep your snide remaks to you fookin self axxhole////last bet I will ever have on the flat should have known better
You had better keep your Gumshield in with that one!
Excellent post Gord and you are correct it is an observation by numbers but we all know what can be done with them.
If you take Ruby Walsh’s statitistics for example and comapre them to AP’s you could say on balance Ruby would be champion jockey every year by a mile if he took the same number of mounts as the champ does.
The missing factor in that calculation is the quality of the animals each of them ride and it’s that same factor that you can’t allow for when comparing Ferdy’s figures to say Alan King or Paul Nicholls.
Ferdy wins races with some horses PN wouldn’t even keep in his yard and I think that speaks volumes of the man and when I read statements like "non triers" coming from someonewho hasn’t a clue what they are talking about it gets my back up.
I’m not saying for one minute presenters shouldn’t discuss different subjects during a programme but their number one asset should be their abilty to give good sound advice to the viewers on the runners.
Lydia is absoltely clueless and has been for years.
I can still remember her giving 6 to follow when he was with the BBC…..Mac’s Joy was one and did finish 2nd in the CH but the other 5 were a joke. One of them was a horse called Lord Sam, I forget who trained him but when she wrote he was going to beat Best mate in the Gold Cup I thought who is this woman….she’s stone mad. She hasn’t improved.
You can’t blame Ferdy for going nuts at this, anyone involved in racing worth knows how the man goes about his business and yes! he does tend to get them ready for certain races. Not because he’s some kind of crook but because he a genius at getting the very best out of a average animals when the prize money is worth chasing. If the man thought a horse was capable of winning every race it ran in over an entire season then he would train it to do so like he does with Kalahari King. Why on earth wouldn’t he?
Many many horses can’t stand up to competitive racing all season and may only be at their peak for a short period before losing their form. The trainer gets them fit they win one, maybe two races then the next thing you know they run like pigs for the rest of the season.
Ferdy simply reverses that and tries to get them to peak when it is most finacially rewarding……..that’s being a clever business man and not a thing wrong with it.Anyway this started over a horse was the supposidly eyecatching Frosty Boy. He wasn’t an unfancied 33/1 shot he was gambled from 6/1 to 5/1 on the day and didn’t run like a horse I would have been rushing to put into my notebook.
People may be surprised at Ferdy’s reaction but if the horse was trying it’s best then they picked the wrong time and the wrong man to be pulling up.
Fist,
There are some women in TV racing media who are used as just presenters (good they are too; without the form knowledge of some other pundits. However, Lydia shows time and time again her racing and form knowledge is more than up to scratch. As Gumshield points out, it is possible to pick out tips from anyone, that look very wrong after the event.
I did not read / see either of Lydia’s tips that year, but I came to the same conclusion as she did. With an ante-post bet on both Mac’s Joy and Lord Sam. LS was trained by Victor Dartnell and showed abundant promise in both novice hurdle and chase seasons. He did not jump with the best fluencey as a novice chaser; but with little experience every reason to think he’d improve in that department. However the opposite proved the case and Lord Sam went backwards.
Am sure Lydia did not say Lord Sam had a better chance than Best Mate, just a value selection against Best Mate. There is a difference.
What about this year? Lydia’s tip for the Arkle at the beginning of this season was Somersby, then around 33/1 if memory serves. Not bad eh? She also tipped it up as a live outsider when placed at huge odds in last year’s Supreme.
In a world dominated by men (racing media) Lydia is the equivalent of jockey Hayley Turner, the best woman in her field, and more importantly; one of the best people in her field.
Of course you can not expect Ferdy to have the same over all SR as Nicholls or King. But, their horses (usually) go off a lot shorter because they have a greater chance. But you can still expect Ferdy’s 10/1 shots to compare reasonably well with Nicholls and King’s (and whatever other trainer’s) 10/1 shots etc. That is how betting works. Cav’s work seems to show they don’t come anywhere near.
Value Is EverythingHmmm…. a trainer who was fined in 2002 for bringing the sport into disrepute when admitting on film he would be prepared to prevent a horse running on its merits.
The same trainer who was described by the BHA Disciplinary Panel as ‘(committing) a despicable act compounded by Murphy distancing himself from the ride.’ This was regarding the running and riding of Mansonn Leda at Catterick last season.
Yep, I’ve no doubt about the man’s character and integrity
All part of racings rich tapestry! Dunelight had a "Pipeopener" for tonights race at Kempton a couple of weeks ago,it brought him on a ton! Get over it!
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There’s a marked difference between unfit horses running and blowing up, and horses being held up so far off the pace that they’re never given a chance until the money’s down.
How do the figures break down for jockeys and owners, Cav? Are you able to further analyse Murphy’s numbers by owner?
Careful with comments on this thread please. Obviously a subject that may touch nerves so please be careful with what is said.
Anyone unsure about posting anything contact me before posting.
Careful with comments on this thread please. Obviously a subject that may touch nerves so please be careful with what is said.
Agree. I started this as an analysis of Ferdy Murphys runners, not of his integrity or character. I dont know the bloke, probably never will and I dont know who backs or lays his runners. All we know is that there are definate patterns.
We can discuss this without getting personal.
Yes be very careful, it always amazes me what people say even though they have absolutely no personal knowledge of the characters involved.
I truly do not have any doubts about Ferdy’s integrity and character, and I have no problem doing business with him.
He receives a lot of criticism mainly due to the outspoken nature of his comments, and on occasions gets a backlash for speaking his mind. I have to say I frequently agree with him.
you have angels& you have devils.and they excist in all walks of live .including racing.but seems more so in racing,and when you been in the game a long time ,you get to know some of them
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