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Agreed.
Horses should be fit and ready every time they run.
Incidentally, don’t you think that it’s the stable and owners piling into the horses? They are the they..
I don’t know exactly what they’ve been saying on RUK but the OP has certainly made a compelling case for what he, and others, believe to be the truth.
We have two camps here: the ones who think every horse should be trying to win every race it runs in , and the ones who think that some trainers work on the principle that they’re not machines and do what will benefit in the longrun.
But i digress as that’s not the point of this thread so could someone give a brief synopsis of what the RUK were saying as it’s only been hinted at so far.
- Total Posts 17716
Filtered down to handicaps only, no novice’s running for a mark to skew the figures.
Handicaps Only
SP >15/2
Horse Held Up In Running
Jan 1st 2008+Trainer ….. Win ….. Run ….. SR% ….. P/L ….. ROI%
Jonjo O’Neill ….. 21 ….. 258 ….. 8.14 ….. 40.38 ….. 15.65
D Pipe ….. 12 ….. 231 ….. 5.19 ….. -13.72 ….. -5.94
Ferdy Murphy ….. 3 ….. 207 ….. 1.45 ….. -168.92 ….. -81.61[/color:33cl2q2c]
G L Moore ….. 6 ….. 182 ….. 3.3 ….. -61.19 ….. -33.62
A King ….. 6 ….. 169 ….. 3.55 ….. -59.72 ….. -35.34
P J Hobbs ….. 11 ….. 160 ….. 6.88 ….. 27.39 ….. 17.12
N A Twiston-Davies ….. 7 ….. 159 ….. 4.4 ….. -27.83 ….. -17.5
Evan Williams ….. 8 ….. 151 ….. 5.3 ….. -13.94 ….. -9.23
P Bowen ….. 7 ….. 135 ….. 5.19 ….. -3.1 ….. -2.3
P F Nicholls ….. 7 ….. 130 ….. 5.38 ….. -7.71 ….. -5.93Worse again. You can kiss your money goodbye, just 3 wins from 207 tries if the horse is held up and the money isn’t down. My conclusion, the RUK pundits certainly have a point.
* Results are to estimated BFSP and will be a percent or 2 either side of the actual BFSP.
Maybe I’m missing something here, but if one acccepts the inference of these figures, aren’t they also accepting that those with the highest strike rate are also the more honest stables, and those below not quite so much?
Looking at the table, that supposition is laughable imo, and that casts grave doubts on the overall validity of the way the evidence is being used on here.
Not defending FM btw, just don’t think he should be hung without a fair trial.Maybe I’m missing something here, but if one acccepts the inference of these figures, aren’t they also accepting that those with the highest strike rate are also the more honest stables, and those below not quite so much?
Looking at the table, that supposition is laughable imo, and that casts grave doubts on the overall validity of the way the evidence is being used on here.It’s the marked discrepancy between Murphy and the others taken as a whole that’s noteworthy I think RH. Given the small samples I don’t think much can be read into the difference between say King and Hobbs, despite the ‘evidence’ if taken literally being that the latter is more ‘honest’ than the former as his SR is twice as good and returns a positive ROI
And what to make of Jonjo? It seems his held up drifters return a profit, which you’d think rather surprising for a supposed gambling stable. I’d suggest it could be due to his runners not ridden by McCoy being underbet, as opposed to those who are which tend to be overbet. Particularly if running in the same race.
Who knows?
Whether these stats are wholly robust and warrant dogmatic interpretation could be – and probably should be – disputed, but they are certainly interesting and may be evidential to a lesser if possibly not greater degree.
I daresay it would be most time consuming but digging out stats from earlier years and including more trainers to bolster the sample sizes and to ease the interpretation of comparisons would be very worthwhile.
Amazed such stats can be extracted at all. Potent database filters you have at your disposal CR
It’s not simple by any means and I have done OK backing Ferdy’s horses at the spring festival meetings, but I couldn’t disagree with the views expressed by the RUK presenters and the data presented by Cav bears it up. Some trainers play the long game; more in Ireland than over here though!
"Nouveau Maire was reported as having a breathing problem."
What an unoriginal an excuse!
The originators of the debate certainly have a point. IMO the trainer/jockey combination think they are being smart but the facts behind the argument are sound.
Murphy should have been warned off following the high profile exposure a few years ago.
Heaven knows there are trainers other than Mr Murphy that can be equally slow off the mark and return equally woeful early-season stats. One thinks immediately of James Ewart, whose string burst into life a week or two earlier than usual this time, but who had otherwise recorded a return in the region of one win from 49 runners across all the previous Septembers, Octobers and Novembers since he’d taken out a license.
I suppose there may be a few reasons why such a poor early autumn for Mr Ewart year in, year out, hadn’t attracted adverse comment. Fewer runners sent out compared to Mr Murphy perhaps gives less chance for familiarity to breed contempt. Alternatively, there may just be an acceptance that geography or weather prevents a lot of the Dumfriesshire & Galloway yards from getting them hard fit as quickly as elsewhere – Len Lungo never had too many soaraway Septembers either, come to think of it.
I think there’s another, more plausible reason, though. Even in defeat, Mr Ewart’s early-mid autumn runners always seem to be giving it a right good go before compounding. Dual bumper winner Turbo Island, for example, looked like splendid lay material to me on his hurdling debut at Carlisle back on November 1st, based solely on the date of his reappearance being a bit too soon for my liking. He duly finished unplaced, but only once fitter rivals on the day had outlasted him from the final flight.
Mr Ewart’s reserve of goodwill from the racegoing / viewing public at large remains intact, with no reason not to be. Conversely, Mr Murphy’s is not; and however honestly he may be running every last animal at West Witton now, I’m not sure he should be all that amazed if anyone’s first thoughts are that a given horse of his has been raced injudiciously, with him having queered his pitch when caught uttering the quote reproduced earlier in the thread.
gc
Jeremy Grayson. Son of immigrant. Adoptive father of two. Metadata librarian. Freelance point-to-point / horse racing writer, analyst and commentator wonk. Loves music, buses, cats, the BBC Micro, ale. Advocate of CBT, PACE and therapeutic parenting. Aspergers.
the only ferdy murphy trained horse ive backed in the last 5 years is kalahari king
motwyw
And I know several owners who have horses at Ferdy’s and to suggest that they are putting big enough bets on their horses to move the markets is laughable, as is the concept that "the stable" (i.e a load of girls and boys earning barely over minimum wage) could move the market also.
The syndicate Manager for Galant Nuit looks at this forum, and whilst I am sure he was delighted to have the win, I would wager he didn’t have more than pocket money on the horse.
There is nobody with horses at FM’s yard who punts on anything like the scale of JP McManus, David Johnson, or Harry Findlay.
No, the punters on this thread are just making the stats fit their beliefs, and it seems £5 punters who bet on a 20/1 outsider that is pulled up are convinced that is a crooked run, when the odds already convey a low probability of winning.
As I said earlier (and was ignored) surely the doubtful operators are the ones pulling off the big priced winners, backed in by a load of money at the last minute.
The price reduction could be a result of WHO is placing teh money rather than how much CJboy
There is nobody with horses at FM’s yard who punts on anything like the scale of JP McManus, David Johnson, or Harry Findlay.
Except the owner of Poker de Sivola and Pre Token per chance?
Fair point, I forgot Poker de Sivola. Is Pre Token still in training?
I don’t know that owner, so is it he who is moving the market for all FM runners (but not Pipes)?
As I said earlier (and was ignored) surely the doubtful operators are the ones pulling off the big priced winners, backed in by a load of money at the last minute.
Once again your ignoring the argument. The analysis here pertains to the performance of Murphy hold up horses, which was questioned by 2 RUK pundits, horses which at times never appear to be put in a race. I happen to agree with them. Should they be removed from their jobs for expressing a critical opinion? Do they have a point? Why is the pull up rate for his handicappers up to 48% greater than the national average when they start at prices of more than 15/2?
Anyway we’re starting to go round in circles here so time to finish off, I’ve made the point I wanted to make.
For any innocents out there who might be making selections over their cornflakes and cant watch a market all day, I’ll conclude with Murphy/Lee 10 minute exchange figures from 1st Jan 08 to 29th Nov 09 (451 individual performances)
Backed at 10 minutes prior to off and drifted -136.97 point loss at 10 minute price.
Backed at 10 minutes prior to off and drifted -91.2 point loss at BFSP (-34.8% ROI)[/color:2651awri]
Backed at 10 minutes prior to off and shortened -22.39 point loss (-11.84% ROI)
I have no idea who is backing or laying these, but whoever is, clearly knows more than the rest of us.[/color:2651awri]
Get laying those hold up drifters.
Lydia and Jonathan, job well done.
I’m not suggesting he’s backing them, just pointing out you were contradicting yourself.
I think the main thing to bear in mind is that The Jockey Club are well organised – you get away with nothing.
CJBoy,
I’m pretty sure the lizards/trilaterals/three tramps (Pick whatever identity you wish from Glenn’s phrasebook) watch the exchange markets and price up accordingly, taking on horses they believe are too short and vice versa. It does not take very much money to move a horse’s price on early markets. A few hundred quid will do it on a horse much bigger than 10/1 on the machine, particularly over jumps where the markets have less liquidity.
Moving the market just before the off is a bit different but there are many sheeps, traders and punters who will follow these kind of movements. I would assume they are also exacerbated if the trainer’s punting profile suggests the money should be listened to.
Cav’s empirical data surely proves that there is a pattern and you can deduce that the stable "knows" from that pattern. The sample looks to have enough scope to be fair. Imho of course.
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