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No way i’d be touching it at 1/3. The others could run it close, and i suspect one or two other won’t be far behind at all, most noteably Bishop Looney and Western Charmer @ 9s and 12s.
If he comes down to a race at the last hurdle or 2, then it could fall obviously, so i’d rather not be bricking it on placing decent money at those shortened odds.
Maxilon – your comments about Ryan Moore are a tad ignorant. People are the way they are for a reason. Not everybody can be charismatic, and a good jockey is more important than a charismatic one.
You said on the 17th :-
"I happen to agree despite having backed Kauto Star (Couldn’t resist the 7/1EW) as things stand Denman should win the Gold Cup. "
As George Carling once said, well along these lines anyway…"the media and politicians put too much emphasis on telling everyone how we’re different, instead of telling us how we’re similar". He says it’s a way of controlling the masses.
It’s true to an extent. I think racism is pretty much harsh verbal or physical abuse. It’s also sometime how you say something, and not what you say. I don’t think making stereotypes about what someone may or may not eat is racist. It’s either a funny remark, or an unfunny one.
The media like the things we don’t. They like racism and sectarianism, it gives them something to write about. If there is nothing serious to write about, they will scrape below the surface and magnify any slight remark.
I recall a little stunt by the sun newspaper. They parked a car in a rough part of Glasgow, bedecked it with English flags, then ran it as an anti English racism story when a group of neds(chavs) vandalised it.(during a time when England qualified for a tournament, and Scotland didn’t)
"I am sorry but it is very difficult to believe J. Wilson shagged his way around London in the mid 60’s…1860’s maybe…. "
That made me
, and i don’t have a clue who he is. It wasn’t something i expected to read on here.It is what you want it to be really. PN didn’t do well to clear it up, or the bbc rather, when they asked him last Febuary.
"He started off being "Cato" and most of the yard call him that but Clive [owner Clive Smith] likes him being called "Korto" so I’m trying to train myself to say Korto. "
I’ll look more into it.
On the question of betting him.
What price will he be if he wins first time out?…….7/2 at best I would have thoughtI think he would be lucky if he will be 6/4 to 2/1 if he wonthe Gold Cup and the crazy thing is punters would still bet him.
Maybe that’s a good enough reason for you to start laying then if you think he’ll run. Get 10s just now as you said, then lay him at 3s down the line.
I’m sure you said in a separate thread that he will win the GC anyway.
She sometimes reminds me of Ryan Moore. She has that ability to stalk the leaders then produce it within the last. Perhaps not all the time as i obviously haven’t saw all of her races, but in the ones i have seen her win..
I’ve took a proper interest in racing via the Kauto-Denman hype. I’d say i’m still a novice considering many of here seem to know alot from viewing classic races first hand.
As for Denman defying the weight, i wouldn’t know to be honest. He gave almost 2 stone to character building in the Hennesy, and done him by 19 lengths. Hedgehunter was giving weight to alot of horses in 05, and still managed to win by 14 lengths.
Snowy moring got done by 34 lengths by offshorte account after getting beat by Denman.
I guess stats are there to be bent and twisted to suit our personal agendas.
GWILSON. I was just excited to see that Denman will run in it. I’ve still a hell of alot to learn about racing. What i do know could currently be written on the back of a match box probably.
What is interesting is that, in the last 18 years, only one winner has weighed in at over 11st. That was Hedgehunter in 2005, at 11st 1Ibs.
Age/weight/odds
2007 Silver Birch 10 10-6 33-1
2006 Numbersixvalverde 10 10-8 11-12005 Hedgehunter 9 11-1 7-1
2004 Amberleigh House 12 10-10 16-1
2003 Monty’s Pass 10 10-7 16-1
2002 Bindaree 8 10-4 20-1
2001 Red Marauder 11 10-12 33-1
2000 Papillon 9 10-12 10-1
1999 Bobbyjo 9 9-10 10-1
1998 Earth Summit 10 10-5 7-1
1997 Lord Gyllene 9 9-10 14-1
1996 Rough Quest 10 10-7 7-1
1995 Royal Athlete 12 10-6 40-1
1994 Miinnehoma 11 10-8 16-1
1993 VOID
1992 Party Politics 8 10-7 14-1
1991 Seagram 11 10-6 12-1
1990 Mr Frisk 11 10-6 16-1If i thought he would run i’d take those odds on Denman. Obviously he might not run, so i’m gonnae remain coy at the moment. The thought of the bookies taking money for literally nothing isn’t for me.
It says on SL that Denman has been entered. Needless to say odds have fallen sharply, and those who took some ante post will be pleased with themselves.
Taken from sporting life :-
Denman will be entered in this year’s John Smith’s Grand National according to trainer Paul Nicholls.
Part-owner Harry Findlay has made no secret of his desire to see his Cheltenham Gold Cup winner tackle Aintree’s unique fences, and it seems he may get his wish this year after all.
Writing in his Racing Post column Nicholls said: "I’ve been asked several times in the last couple of days whether Denman will get an entry in the Grand National, and I can put an end to the speculation by saying he will be entered.
"I’m coming round to the idea of running him. The more I’ve thought about it the more it makes sense while Denman is in his prime.
"Phil Smith has offered a carrot by reducing the top weight in the National from 11st 12lb to 11st 10lb, and who’s to say he won’t offer us another inducement when he frames the handicap.
"As Denman is rated 182, the Grand National handicap is going to look very interesting."
Not surprisingly plenty of punters have latched onto those comments and Denman’s Grand National price has since collapsed.
Plenty of 16s was available but Denman is now as short as 7/1 favourite with totesport and no bigger than 10/1.
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Chomba womba dosen’t appear on my list. According to SL it’s :-
Accordello
Blaeberry
Circus Rose
Magical Legend
Owlesbury Dream
Shatabdi
Sweetheart
Theatre Belle
UnitedI’d like to see how Circus Rose takes the step up in class. I was impressed with one of her previous runs.
Does anyone who keeps stats take into consideration whether there are undulations, or if the course is tight or galloping ?
It would be good if the ground was on the good side for this years gold cup. Denmans preference is that distance and course – as was the going. Kauto prefers 24f and a right handed course. Remember, just because it would appear that he prefers going right, it dosen’t mean he dislikes going left.
Maybe someone will grow some goolies and run Denman at next years King George.
