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Of Course O’Brien is an excellent and top trainer. To deny that would be ridiculous. The extent of the firepower he has behind him would be daunting to a lesser man and must put him under great strain . Last year he had 184 horses in his stable – which putting the private purchases for which there is no published price in at the average – were bought at a cost of approx $120m. He ran 125 of which 60 (32.4%) won a total of 73 races. These figures are not of themselves that remarkable in that many smaller trainers have over 40% of the horses in their care winning in a particular season and a higher % of wins to stable inmates. What is remarkable is the quality and depth of the string and their ability to win the race they are targetted at.
I dont personally take much notice of his personal touch as does Longchamp Lad. Henry Cecil and Michael Stoute pay their staff the compliment of knowing them to be totally professional in their jobs and would perceive it as an insult to their staff if they had to chase around with a grooming brush etc. Its just a different style.You may be right that Duke of Marmalade is best suited by 10f but it will be less than a vintage year if he proves to be the best at that distance. He has run well to be placed in the guineas etc but when all is said and done he still has only managed to win 1 race which is hardly the stuff of Champions
Soldier of Fortune looks an ideal type having won a Gr2in france at Longchamp, a Group 3 at Chester and being 2nd behind Passage of Time in a further Group 1 all on ground with cut in it, before running 5th in the Derby on fast ground.
O’brien has today , however, said he was a likely runner in the irish Derby on sunday!! so maybe he is relying on Anton Chekov for the German derby?
Kignstown Town,
Certainly Bentley Biscuit was switched right around the field from his low draw on the near side to end up on the very far rail. This would have cost him many lengths. On the other hand the Racing Post reported that he did not pick up at all and that the connections said he hated the very fast ground. It was aso reported that he pulled out of Saturdays race – on softish ground – because of being jarred up on the Tuesday.
So I think the answer to your question is that the ground was the thing that really did for him although switching across the whole width of Ascot would not have helped.
Sean,
I believe you misinterpreted my post where I referedded to sensitivities. I do not support nor ever have the use of language or actions which cause offence to others. Apart from anything else it is plain bad manners and as we used to say " bad form".
Part of the problem as I was trying to point out is that over the generations the concept of what is acceptable and what is not has changed – eg one poster pointed out that Agatha Christies best seller and an even older nursery rhyme were in their day perfectly acceptable – today they are not. Recently in the USA someone was prosecuted for the use in the correct context of the word niggardly – by which I, like you, would mean parsimonious or stingy – when someone else obviously considered the word to have a different meaning.
A further change is the assumption of people that they have "rights". Hitherto the accepted concept was that people had obligations which if they failed to conduct was liable to prosecution ie after July Ist you have an obligation not to smoke in a public place – but there was no assumption of the corollary that this confers a legal right on a recipient to smoke free air.
Similarly there is now an obligation not to be racist but I doubt that the one off use of an ill mannered or ill considered phrase would be racist under the terms of the act – perhaps Wit would like to comment on that – and that a successful prosection would result from the use of such a phrase and nor do I believe that the Act grants a "right" to us not to hear such offensive remarks anymore than many older people have a right not to hear foul or abusive language (as they used to consider it) commonplace on TV today. I can well remember the shock when Kenneth Tynan was the first to use F*** on television.
In other words legislation not withstanding we are back to the old world – certain behaviour is generally felt acceptable and certain is not – and the old rules apply I believe ie when someone is guilty of an inadvertant breach of manners , form or etiquette and that is you nobly pretend you have not heard it.
Perhaps younger people feel it is not enough to maintain a noble silence and that there is an obligation on them to point out the error of someone elses ways even though the offence on a scale of 1-10 is probably 1 at most. I would caution them that if they do they will either die of apoplexy before they reach the ripe old age to which they have a "right" or like me they will find that the conventions of manners, speach and dress have moved so far away from what in their pomp they considered reasonable that they best keep their "right" of silence or risk being considered senile.<br>
I was surprised more use was not made of Scorpions stamina in a slowly run race on soft ground. Mick Kinane started to ride hard 3f out but if it were mine knowing that Maraahel on the book was 5 lb better of with me and that he is a bit dodgy and possible more unsuited by the going than mine I think I would have kicked for home much further out.
I do not think many people ( Clivex perhaps excepted) disagree that GW will improve for this run.
The point of this thread was, however, whether GW would win after a rushed preparation first time out and hence was a licence to print money. The majority wrongly insisted that he would due to his and O’Briens brilliance. The race underlined that there are some " rules" which are imutable but I don’t blame Zorro for having some fun at the expense of those licking their wounds.<br>.
Interesting thread to an oldie like me. 50 years ago if we had had such a thing as the internet we would never have had a thread like this – obviously people today are rightly more open about/responsive to others sensitivities.
Mind you sensitivities are not the only things that have changed – a gay bachelor was a joyous man , a partner was purely a business or golfing term etc etc.
Incidently no women would have ever shown her bra strap in public and indeed blouses etc were carefully examined for transparancy. Nowadays bra straps are positively flaunted much to the disquiet of people of my generation. Am I entitled to complain and expect these modern sensitive people to take account of my sensitivities?
I also have to agree with the girls on this one. As an owner/breeder I am pleased to see money coming into the sport and Ascot prize money owes far less to the Levy Board ( as a percentage) or even to owners than does a wet thursday at Southwell – I am all in favour of a historic occasion that keeps the public and the money rolling in. They wouldn’y do that if the BBC didn’y do ots part in making it an occasion. After 40+ years marriage my wife and I sit quite companionably watching Ascot wishing we had a horse good enough to be there. Ask your wives you curmudgeonly bunch – I bet most of them would love you to take them to Ascot at least once.
Aragorn,
There are 2 criteria a trainer normally employs in bringing a horse back from a long enforced rest ( rather than a break for R&R reasons)
A. is the horse fit enough that the race does him good and accelerates his progress to full fitness rather than setting him back due to his exertions?
B. is the horse fit enough to win at his best level 1st time out?
For A you re usually talking 3+ months whilst to achieve B normally 4 months+
The trick is to wind the horse up through the fitness stages without him resenting it and hence risking going slightly sour. To get it right depends largely on the horse and the correct reading of the signs the horse is giving out.
Prior to the race I expressed queasiness that GW had only between 2 and 3 months depending on how one interpreted O’Briens somewhat delphic comments about being isolated and having 5 legs.
If he took yesterdays race well I am sure we will see a big improvement next time.
Iwas extremely doubtful in the other thread of O’Briens (or anyone elses) abilty to get GW ready for a Group 1 event in such a rushed preparation. Carson on BBC also expressed some doubt as to his condition " he’s all right but I have seen him more muscled" he stated.
There is no doubt in my mind that he will improve immeasurably for that run as he did after Goodwood last year. Whether when fitter he will prove more tractable – as he did last year – we will see but I saw no more temperment today than you would expect from a frsh slightly undercooked horse.
Keltos was TF rated 132 in 2002 ( cf George Washington 133 in 2006) and although he won first time out after stud duties it was in a minor conditions race getting 9 lbs from a horse rated 104. Thereafter he was 2nd in 2 listed races before being placed in a G" and G3 and earning a TF rating for the year of 118 ie stud duties or age led to a deterioration of 14lbs.
All horses are different and GW has only been off for 9 months whereas Keltos was returned to training after 14 months.
Incidently Gentlemens Deal had a TF turf rating of 95 and did not run to anywhere near this in the Lincoln<br>and was not in the same class as Keltos or GW.
Obviously Aidan O’Brien feels GW is fit and ready but I think a fealing of queasiness after such a rushed preparation is certainly in order although as I previously posted it may well prove in retrospect " a licence to print money"
<br>
Simon,
Was keltos the horse you were thinking of? He won the Lockinge in 2002 and was not seen again until 04. He certainly did not win another G1 but was placed in several G2 and G3’s on his return.
This is fascinating since it represents a real challenge for George Washington who was only put back into training reputedly in April. My horses seem to take 3 to 4 months after a 7 month layoff to reach racing fitness and although O’Brian would hardly let him run if he was not on top form it must still be a tough ask despite the fact that GW is on all known form a far superior horse.
Backing GW may well prove to be a licence to print money but I am sufficiently queasy to make it a non backing race.
Do other owners on the forum share my doubts that 2 months preparation is a bit rushed?
Yep, good call Gareth, Fallon quickened off a very slow pace beating Alkaasad who subsequently was rated higher over 12f by TF at least
<br>Sorry post wasn’t worth one time let alone 3! – broadband dropping in/out
(Edited by Galejade at 10:48 pm on June 8, 2007)
