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You could be rigth EC. If there is a real superstar miler among them he looks much the most likely to be it. I’ve backed Horatio Nelson because I think the price stands out like a beacon but I wouldn’t be disapointed to see my money spirited away as the result of an outstanding display from GW.
I see what you mean about your spelling EC, you’ve even spelt Sir Percy wrong on the topic title:biggrin:
(Edited by FlatSeasonLover at 8:53 pm on May 4, 2006)
Loving all this playful banter!
EC, I’m with you 110%. People have every reason not to fancy him. I’ve been in the game for 3 2000 Gns now and haven’t been burnt by a Coolmore ‘hype machine’, so I don’t know what it’s like, but like you, I’ve studied so hard, with breeding, form, pace of the race, etc
I see nothing which can beat George Washington over a mile. Horatio and Sir Percy are there (You can pretty much forget Sir Percy I think – a fresh Horatio would have beaten him by a few lengths in the Dewhurst), but they are both middle distance horses, and will get outpaced before staying on.
I really think George is the business.
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Quick question for the board’s Admin staff: why is this thread not merged with the existing 2,000 Guineas one?
Imo George will win the Guineas on saturday, i think AOB is not tryin to overhype the horse because he doesnt want another one cool cat episode which cost Spencer his job at Ballydoyle. This horse will stay a mile and i think he may even get 10f if tried in the eclipse later on in the season. Fallon has been very bullish over the winter about George and he aint a bad judge as when he went to sit on motivator before the RP trrophy as a 2 year old he told a stable lad he was the best 2 year old he had ever sat on and that he wud win the derby.<br>
Quote: from IRSHEYEZ on 10:24 pm on May 4, 2006[br]Imo George will win the Guineas on saturday, i think AOB is not tryin to overhype the horse because he doesnt want another  one cool cat episode which cost Spencer his job at Ballydoyle. This horse will stay a mile and i think he may even get 10f if tried in the eclipse later on in the season. Fallon has been very bullish over the winter about George and he aint a bad judge as when he went to sit on motivator before the RP trrophy as a 2 year old he told a stable lad he was the best 2 year old he had ever sat on and that he wud win the derby.<br>
<br>Yes but he also said Gypsy King could beat Motivator in the Derby.
Lets look at GW and Sir Percy.
Firstly, here are the quotes for George Washington.
We had a choice to make after he won here last month and we made that choice to run him today. Now we can either not run him again this year or go for the Dewhurst or the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. We will see how he is next week, but he may have done enough and learned enough at this stage. It is six weeks since George Washington won the Phoenix Stakes and he was just ready to run. He has never worked more than four furlongs at home, but the seven furlongs was no problem for him today. It wasn’t the new trip that had him pulling up towards the finish – it was getting to the front in the middle of the track with nothing on either side of him. You cannot be sure about how far any horse will stay until you try them, but we’d be very hopeful he will get a mile. Amigoni made it a good seven-furlong test, not a mickey mouse one. George Washington must have been all of 12 lengths off the lead after stumbling and he made up the ground very quickly. He is a very exciting colt with loads of speed and natural ability. – Aidan O’Brien, trainer; A couple of the horses seemed to jump a bit awkwardly and my horse appeared to clip a heel. He definitely stumbled and we were lucky, but it left me further back than I wanted to be and I ended up making up my ground too quickly. I was afraid that if I let Aidan’s other horse [Amigoni] get too far in front, he might stay there. My fellow quickened instantly when I asked him, but when we hit the front we were in the middle of the track and having no rail to help him was not ideal. He’s inclined to idle when he gets there and that’s what he did. I was very impressed but there was nothing to test him. He needs good horses to up his game. – Kieren Fallon, jockey <br>07 Aug 2005 Curragh (6G,RPR121) He’s always been a special horse and is an unusual beast ashe shows so much speed but is bred for a mile. Everything is open to him but he’s now had four runs so we’ll just see how he is and there’s a possibility that could be it for the season. – Aidan O’Brien; He felt great and everything went so well. It is nice not to have to hit them as they are still babies and he is still a big baby. – Kieren Fallon <br>26 Jun 2005 Curragh (6M,RPR105) This horse is class and is the best two-year-old around. He has the speed for six furlongs, yet we think he wants a mile already – Kieren Fallon, jockey; I was delighted with him. It was slowly run and they only raced for two furlongs. In an ideal world we would have liked them to have gone quicker. He has a lot of speed, but I don’t think distance is going to be a problem for him and you would imagaine that he would get a mile this year. He’s in all the top races and, while we have nothing specific in mind, anything other than a Group 1 would be a step down – Aidan O’Brien, trainer. <br>22 May 2005 Curragh (6Y,RPR86) He got a bump in Newmarket and that gave him a fright. He’s a possible for Ascot (at York). – Aidan O’Brien, trainer
Here we can see that Fallo thinks GW wants a mile while O’Brien is hopeful it will stay a mile.
Here are its race results
18Sep05 Cur 7Gd 2yG1,123K 9-0 1/7 TS 113 RPR 113 <br> 07Aug05 Cur 6Gd 2yG1,125K 9-0 1/7 TS 115 RPR 121 <br> 26Jun05 Cur 6GF 2yG2,57K 9-0 1/5 TS 68 RPR 105 <br> 22May05 Cur 6Y 2y,9K 9-2 1/7 TS 65 RPR 86 <br> 01May05 Nmk 5GF cl4 2yMd,5K 9-0 3/10 TS 77 RPR 86
Now as far as I’m concerned there are several things that worry me.
1) Has only raced in small fields. Its inruuning comments point to it being held up, and there must be a slight worry about traffic problems.
2) Beaten on its only visit to Newmarket. It got a bit worked up and whilst it was its debut, I couldn’t be convinced it won’t get worked up again as it looks to be highly strung.
3) Its best RPR and TopSpeed were over 6f. Its ratings went down when stepping up to 7f and this worries me as will it want to step up to 8f. Its connections think it will but there is no evidence for this. It is clearly blessed with immense spped and is a top clas sprinter but will it stay a mile. i frequently here it will be a truly run mile and that will suit GW but where is the evidence for this.
Here is Sir Percy’s record.
15Oct05 Nmk 7GS cl1 2yG1,145K 9-0 1/8 TS120 RPR119 <br> 27Jul05 Goo 7Sft cl1 2yG2,40K 8-11 1/7 TS108 RPR 112 <br> 23Jun05 Sal 6GF cl2 2yMd,12K 8-6 1/8 TS 76 RPR 91 <br> 28May05 Goo 6Gd cl5 2yMd,3K 8-11 1/11 TS 82 RPR82
Firstly, this is a very progressive profile. It has improved for each run and the step up in trip. I hear everyday on here that it will be outpaced, will be off the bridle early, needs further, will finish a staying on 4th. Where is the evidence for this? It has won over 6f and 7f and has not in any inrunning motes being outpaced or niggled along early. Its topspeed rating is greater than George Washingtons so I’m struggling to see how it lacks the pace for the trip. GW has a slightly higher RPR but Sir Percy is the better price. Where is the evidence to suggest it will be outpaced, its record suggests 1m will be right up its street.
I understand people like to take a lateral view about form, ie whats it beat? Well here we go
Sir Percy has beaten:
Don’t Dili Dali RPR 98 – Much improved in good company this year.<br>Cool Creek RPR 111<br>Aussie Rules RPR 109 – Big things expected this year from this one<br>League Champion RPR 107<br>And of course in the Dewhurst<br>Horatio Nelson RPR 120<br>Red Clubs RPR 112 – Impressive last time out.
Tell me why are there doubts about Sir Percy? It has beaten better horses than GW has. It is sure to stay the trip, has the best speed ratings, has a suitably high RPR, has not been outpaced in any of its races, is a better price than GW, is reported to have worked well and be in fine fettle, looks a relaxed colt and has beaten several of the other runners.
I look forwards to counter arguments and I’ll be interested to see the evidence to support it.
EC surely as the favourite, not that many people are playing him down???? Lets be honest, consider what he did in last year and he deserves to be fovourite and Im more taken by him then I was ever by One cool cat. Thats not retrospect… but at the same time. I havent seen GW this year and so too much is on trust..
plus….Asset excites me. He could be the dogs b*****ks
SHL
Quote: from The Market Man on 10:26 pm on May 4, 2006[br]
Quote: from IRSHEYEZ on 10:24 pm on May 4, 2006[br]Imo George will win the Guineas on saturday, i think AOB is not tryin to overhype the horse because he doesnt want another  one cool cat episode which cost Spencer his job at Ballydoyle. This horse will stay a mile and i think he may even get 10f if tried in the eclipse later on in the season. Fallon has been very bullish over the winter about George and he aint a bad judge as when he went to sit on motivator before the RP trrophy as a 2 year old he told a stable lad he was the best 2 year old he had ever sat on and that he wud win the derby.<br>
<br>Yes but he also said Gypsy King could beat Motivator in the Derby. <br>
I gurantee u if Magnier had of said u have the choice to ride either Gypsy king or Motivator he wudda opted for Motivator
Seems only a short time since you were extolling the virtues of Killybegs, EC, "This is a fast horse…..anything over 5/1 is value"…etc<br>Does this mean that <br>a You have changed your mind<br>b You put a decimal point in the wrong place<br>c You just want to be right to help your fragile ego and are therefore tipping the 7/4 fav?
Quote: from IRSHEYEZ on 11:35 pm on May 4, 2006[br]
Quote: from The Market Man on 10:26 pm on May 4, 2006[br]
Quote: from IRSHEYEZ on 10:24 pm on May 4, 2006[br]Imo George will win the Guineas on saturday, i think AOB is not tryin to overhype the horse because he doesnt want another  one cool cat episode which cost Spencer his job at Ballydoyle. This horse will stay a mile and i think he may even get 10f if tried in the eclipse later on in the season. Fallon has been very bullish over the winter about George and he aint a bad judge as when he went to sit on motivator before the RP trrophy as a 2 year old he told a stable lad he was the best 2 year old he had ever sat on and that he wud win the derby.<br>
<br>Yes but he also said Gypsy King could beat Motivator in the Derby. <br>
I gurantee u if Magnier had of said u have the choice to ride either Gypsy king or Motivator he wudda opted for Motivator<br>
<br>Agreed.
My point being that it doesn’t always pay to listen to what people say. I’d rather go on fact rather than opinion / hype / something thats said out of loyalty.
I’m still waiting for a response to my question about why Sir Percy will be outpaced.
Quote: from FlatSeasonLover on 11:57 pm on May 4, 2006[br]I’m still waiting for a response to my question about why Sir Percy will be outpaced.<br>
I don’t think he will mate so I can’t argue with you
. I’m sure someone will if you’re patient enough. If its a strong pace he may hit a flat spot as he has in most of his races but he will come home like a train. He reminds me alot on Snow Ridge it took him a few races to get the greeness outta him and think he may be better over 10 furlongs.
For what it’s worth FSL, I totally agree with you. It’s only the O’Brien/Fallon factor keeping Sir Percy at longer odds. Reverse the trainers and you know what the likely price difference would be! Sir Percy is the value (to beat GW anyway). Wonder if I can find a match bet anywhere?
Hi all<br>its not often i disagree with EC but i’m afraid i must this time my horse for the 2000gns is HORATIO NELSON a true battler unlucky(very) in his defeat i dont think HN will get the 12f of the Derby & there are a few good french horses for the 10f of the French Derby so this is his best chance of Gp1 success i think he is better than GW if a little tempramental my money is on HN<br>all the best<br>Larry
. I’m sure someone will if you’re patient enough. 
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