June 13, 2007 at 16:24 #1977SalselonMember
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George Washington is currently trading at slightly better than 6/4 on Betfair for the Queen Anne, now reduced to a field of 9.
Is this the biggest opportunity to buy money ever presented (leaving aside the lack of liquidity at this stage) or is it just too difficult for a horse, especially one with a character like GW, to return after stud duty?
Imho, it’s quite a substandard field, with Red Evie, Cesare and Ramonti far short of achieving a mark required to beat GW on even an average day, let alone a day like the QE2 last September.
The worry is of course all about the possible lack of focus, willingness to win and potential mental frailties. I’m far from qualified to discuss these here so perhaps someone with a greater insight could share their thoughts.
So, what do you think?June 13, 2007 at 17:12 #64652FlashMember
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I think Cesare can’t be taken lightly.
I know he hasn’t won at Group 1 level yet but his performance on his seasonal debut was as impressive as you can get. I can barely remember seeing a horse win a race more easily and bearing in mind the form of that race as worked out well Cesare has to be taken seriously in this grade if conditions are suitable. Illustrious Blue has come out of Cesare’s race and won as has the thrid Dunelight who bolted up last weekend. The time of the race was fast and Cesare ran to a high mark.
That said if George Washington is at his peak any horse will find it difficult to beat him.June 13, 2007 at 18:37 #64654ScribblesMember
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I don’t think anyone could write off Red Evie neither. It ain’t no walk over, and i’d take on GW everytime. Who knows how tempramental the horse will be as a FTO 4yo?June 13, 2007 at 20:03 #64656LibrettistMember
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If Ramonti can repeat his run in the HK Mile he must surely go close? He ran well on ground he doesn’t favour and under a shocker of a ride from Dettori in the Lockinge and looks the value.
Just a tiny, weeny little word of warning – beware the team tactics with a certain Notability also in the field.
Could be payback for the QE2!June 13, 2007 at 20:10 #64658AnonymousInactive
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I totally agree; unless any of the others have sprouted wings since their last run, George Washington could give then a start, and still win handsomely.<br>Given his temperament, I wouldn’t be looking to back him ante-post though.June 13, 2007 at 20:55 #64659GalejadeMember
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This is fascinating since it represents a real challenge for George Washington who was only put back into training reputedly in April. My horses seem to take 3 to 4 months after a 7 month layoff to reach racing fitness and although O’Brian would hardly let him run if he was not on top form it must still be a tough ask despite the fact that GW is on all known form a far superior horse.
Backing GW may well prove to be a licence to print money but I am sufficiently queasy to make it a non backing race.
Do other owners on the forum share my doubts that 2 months preparation is a bit rushed?June 13, 2007 at 21:04 #64661MauriceParticipant
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How many horses have returned from stud able to run to 100% of their previous ability?
How many G1 horses can run to thir previous best first time up?
(I have this theory that at the very top level it’s close to impossible. It seems entirely possible for lesser horses to do so but once they get into the mid-120s or higher, they seldom seem able to hit their absolute peak on their return.)June 13, 2007 at 23:24 #64665AnonymousInactive
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Quote: from Maurice on 10:04 pm on June 13, 2007[br]How many horses have returned from stud able to run to 100% of their previous ability?<br>
Can’t think of many gp1 colts that have returned from stud, certainly none in the same short period that GW was away. Didn’t do Gentleman’s Deal any harm this year though, one could make a good case for saying it improved him.:)
I hear what you’re saying, but hasn’t GW been back at least 3 months?
<br>I also agree with Librettist about the ride given to Ramonti, looked for all the world to me as if he was ridden with another day in mind.<br>Imo, clear 2nd best in this field and a laydown for a place at least.June 14, 2007 at 00:41 #64666madman marzMember
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If in doubt f-uck it out. Dont have a bet then !<br>There is so much better opportunities available.June 14, 2007 at 07:42 #64667stevedvgMember
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I think GW could be as mental as mental can be.
They stopped training him and sent him to stud duty, now he’s back training and will be sent racing.
It’s a complete unknown.
BTW, is this being run on the straight or the round?
SteveJune 14, 2007 at 08:02 #64668ZorroMember
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I’m not very impressed by George’s overall form. Brilliant 2 yo certainly. Since then? Nope. <br>Not even that QEll everyone made a fuss of. Araafa and Court Masterpiece were not much good by then, and nor, I suspect, was he.<br>He might be good enough to win this. Won’t be getting any of my money at 6/4 though.June 14, 2007 at 08:03 #64669MauriceParticipant
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Sorry, I should have clarified: I was talking about 4yo and older G1 horses. Obviously there have been several winners of Guineas and the odd Derby on seasonal debuts. (Mind you, Guineas winners tend to be trained for the race virtually since January.)
I also think it’s entirely possible for horses to be giving all the right vibes at home and failing to produce when it matters. I suspect training gallops aren’t true tests. Maybe a horse hasn’t lost any of its basic speed but is it being asked to maintain it for as long as it has to against race-fit battle-hardened rivals?
I don’t have any hard facts, other than my ratings for G1 races. The rest of it is just hunches.June 14, 2007 at 08:15 #64670ClintMMember
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Stevedvg, the Quenne Anne is run , unlike the St. James’s Palace, on the straight.June 14, 2007 at 08:32 #64671ZorroMember
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I’m not very impressed by George’s overall form. Brilliant 2 yo certainly. Since then? Not sure. <br>Not even about that QEll everyone made a fuss of. Araafa and Court Masterpiece were not much good by then, and nor, I suspect, was he.<br>He might be good enough to win this. Won’t be getting any of my money at 6/4 though.June 14, 2007 at 09:14 #64672the welsh wizardMember
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I think George Washington has been seriously over-hyped throughout his career by the Ballydoyle publicity machine – At 2 he won 4 on the spin at the Curragh, he didnt travel across to take on our top juveniles; he naturally outspeeded Sir Percy, a middle-distance performer, to win the Guineas, the rest of the field being distinctly below-par; beaten at the Curragh and Goodwood afterwards, I thought his best performance came in the QEII in September, but to me he didnt beat a much stronger field there than Red Evie did in the Lockinge. <br>Of course, at his best, he will win win next week, that is a patently obvious comment – but what are the chances of him reproducing that best? Less than 40% I would suggest, making 6-4 a poor value wager.
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