[Fran the man]

Been a tough week for winners for me, only for places keeping my head above water id’d be well drowned by now .
Excited for todays racing though. Lots of open looking racing for me with nice prices and plenty of enhanced ew terms .

2.15 Hurricane Darwin, Unseated rider last time over these banks but previously has run really well with a few 2nds,4ths and a 5th. Has had a recent run at the track over hurdles where he ran really well and i think 16/1 4 places with bet365 very fair.

2.50 Chavi Artist
Interesting they step this horse up markedly in trip, doesn’t seem the most obvious of moves but Tom and Tony Mullins both tend to have their handicappers in the right races in the big handicaps in Ireland so i’m guessing this has been the plan.
2 of his 3 career wins have come at this course and Jack Foley who was on for his November win here returns. 16’s widely available again 5 places ew.

3.20
My Sister Sarah
Has been a good mare for Mullins but not in the same class as some of his bigger named wondermares. Had a wind op prior to her Cheltenham run where she ran well to finish 5th albeit well beaten but Bryan Cooper i feel didn’t give her the greatest ride he has ever given and with a bit of luck today she could be a lot closer to Concertista, 12/1 ew.

4.00
Saint Sam
Well beaten behind Zanahiyr and Quilixios earlier in the season but i think he can turn the tables today. Brilliant performance to finish 2nd to Jeff Kidder giving him a stone in the Fred Winter and he’s won a grade 2 since.
Quilixios and Zanahiyrs trainers are having horrendous weeks so couldn’t be backed at the prices and Willies horse that ran well in the triumph is silly short.
10/1 ew

4.30 Popong
Had every chance of getting involved on handicap debut when falling over a trip i think is short for her, step up in trip today will help and some of her form from her novice chases early in the year makes her look well treated, Colreevy only beat her 15 lengths(crazy to say only but she’s a 160+ horse), she beat rapid response who won yesterday,was close up with a Wave of the sea(Won handicap at Drf), Polished Steel(Fell the other day 2 or 3 out when leading) and Zarkareva(not boosted form since) but generally she looks well handicapped especially if as i suspect the trip brings about more improvement. Big issue is the form of the yard but i still think she’s worth a bet ew at 13/2. Hard to see her out of the 5 even allowing for the trainers form.

5.05 Sayo

A fiercely competitive looking handicap but Sayo, a horse that keeps running a decent race in big field handicaps without getting seriously involved due to interference/being a bit of a quirkbag is my ew pick.
Needs to come with one sweeping run so needs plenty of luck but i’m giving him another chance and hopefully Rachel can perform some magic for Willie and get another owner on Willies list of winnners for this week.

[Fran the man]

Felt he gave Bob and Co a really good and brave ride yesterday, horse made a few bad mistakes and though the opportunity presented itself, he didn’t gp wide for a clear sight(like a lot would) as he wanted covered up as long as possible and kept covered up until he was ready to strike.
His interviews on Rte before and after the race were brilliant too. He has a new fan here for sure

[Fran the man]

With you on Kildorrey VTC. He’s got a bit of a mad streak about him and needs to be put to sleep and just left to his own devices and pick them off late on but he is well treated and the claimer onboard got a nice spin last time to get used to him.
5.25
I find it interesting Keith Donohoe desserts The Storyteller for Ronald Pump despite having a real good season together and running a nice race in the stayers hurdle.
Hattons grace run behind Honeysuckle, even though he was likely flattered looks excellent run and he has been progressing for 18 months and had a light season, must be ready to rock for Keith to go for him and hard to see him out of the places.
6.00
Floueur is well worth an ew bet here, got going late on in the Martin Pipe to finish 3rd off top weight. Some might say it’s best staying away from horses getting going late as can be deceiving but this boys run can definitely be marked up.
Up with the pace early but then settle in behind the leaders, ended up midfield, went to take closer order and got badly checked twice. Dropped back to 4th or 5th last and was nursed back into it, travelled wide and stayed on strongly. Was giving Galopin De Champs a pound that day and couldve been a fair bet closer but for the bad luck. GDC may have loads left granted but he’s at least a 150 horse probably closer to 155 so Floeur likely still well treated.

Not a great day yesterday with only a place in the bumper and that was only because of extra place so here’s hoping for better today :D

[Fran the man]

Well lads,
Been a while since i’ve been here, couldn’t remember my login for the last 2 years or whatever it was and found this old laptop and it still had the login saved, so im back as long as it allows .
Few fancies for today.

3.40 Oscar Thyne:

A lot was expected of this horse early on but has been very disappointing up until his last run when winning a beginners chase despite a few sketchy jumps, he tanked through the race and jockey was clearly confident as he covered a lot more ground than the rest of the field, goes back over hurdles so i suspect they think his mark is there to be exploited and he is only 6 so could still be plenty to come if they’ve found the key.

5.55 Melon

A horse i haven’t been a huge fan of over the years but have warmed to him this season. Pulled up with about 3 fences to go at Cheltenham in the Ryanair and might arrive here relatively fresh.
Fakir and CDO both running at Aintree, Al boum having a tough race in the Gold cup so im weary of each of them not running to their best and i don’t think easy game is good enough. Kemboy ran in the Gold cup but didnt have as tough a finish as ABP but i think himself and Melon are closely enough matched and Melon is 3 times the price so hell do for me.

7.00 Thatsy

An odd looking pick you might think but this horse has a handicap rating of 136 over hurdles in Ireland and ran off 139 in Champion hurdle last year where he looked like he wanted further. Disappointing over fences this year but best run was at this course over a similar trip to todays when hammered by Colreevy but only a few lengths behind The Big dog having been hampered. Big Dog is rated 145 now and this boy gets in off a featherweight off a mark of 129. Jumped nicely last time after a break over 2 mile and that could have him spot on for his first handicap chase, mark looks like it could turn out very lenient.

7.35 Mollys glory
Won on first start for yard in her 4th bumper, form worked out from that with 2nd and 3rd winning since. Was 2nd by 1 and 3/4 lengths to Party Central last time. Party Central was beaten a neck by Grandee prior to that but was a little unlucky i felt. On a line through that form id have Mollys glory reasonably closely matched with Grandee but Grandee is biggest price 11/10 and MG 10/1. Seems a fair ew price.

[Fran the man]

Well done winners.
A thoroughly enjoyable race even though i have to be content with a place, was thinking i was on a winner about a furlong out but Low Sun showed serious guts. Glad i stayed away from Cliffs of dover, what were they at?
Chelkar the one for the Irish equivalent tomorrow, ran a lovely race at Ascot after the guts of 2 years off the track before flopping at Galway when he lost a shoe and was coughing after the race, i was expecting him to run today but now we know Willie had this race well covered, it’ll be a big ask off near top weight but i think he could be a cup horse for next year, Colin Keane an eyecatching booking.

[Fran the man]

Moehat Merie Devie is a regular eyecatcher, travels a dream in a lot of her races, don’t think she’s the most genuine though and todays test likely not suit. CDL could be a good outside shout e/w.

[Fran the man]

I’ve my money down on 2 in this race. Just in time and Uradel.
Just in times last run screamed to me that he was being readied for this,he won but i think there was always an eye on this as he won just doing enough,some will point to him finishing behind vis a vis on better terms than this a few runs back but i think a big field suits just in time nicely and would be weary of getting involved in vis a vis until he proves he can handle a field like this and not bully his opposition. I think Martin Harley is arguably one of the best riders about in these staying handicaps particularly with these horses that need a bit of patience and King does pretty well in the race i’m hopeful of a big run.
Uradel is unexposed to my eye and after winning a competitive handicap at Galway under an inexperienced rider i said i’d keep him onside for any big handicap he got involved in, he’s a bigger price than Limini who i dont see reversing placings. Billy Lee is at least a 7 lb better rider than Aubrey Mc Mahon so they’re basically running of comparatively same marks and i expect Uradel to come off better again.
A few i’ve desserted are Whiskey sour who i think is a seriously talented individual and could be a Champion hurdle contender when he goes back over timber but the trip is a question for me and Kirby’s an odd jockey booking i feel, very good jockey but i’d think he might be a bit too busy for Whiskeys liking,Spencer or Soumillon would’ve been my idea of a perfect booking for him,Cliffs of dover looks nicely handicapped but Megan will find it tough in a race like this as she wouldn’t have the experience of most of the others.
Southern France looks like he’ll go off about 4/1 with the move this mornning which seems ridiculous to me, he’ll be too soft here i’m guessing and might look at place laying him.

Looking forward to a great race.

[Fran the man]

Fantastic days racing ahead, the Champion chase in particular could be quite the spectacle and rather than taking a strong view on it i’ve decided to let them run and hope it’s as good as i think it could be, in some of the other races i have had a little go.

4.20
I think Getabird isn’t going to get things all his way today, surely Elliott won’t let it happen? With that and the quicker ground in mind i think he’ll get turned over but by who?
Sharjah, Mengli Khan and Paloma blue all interested me in one way or another but i missed 20’s on Sharjah and think the 14’s is getting a bit short now, the other 2 are 2 horses i really like, Mengli ran a cracker at Cheltenham and arrives here fresher than some others but could find one or 2 too good, Paloma blue is learning how to race bit by bit and if he drifts a little bit to about 6/1 i might have a go but at the minute he’s a no bet but could be a serious chaser next year.
The one i have backed having originally felt might be kept for the Galway hurdle is Whiskey sour. Ran a lovely race in the county and sliced through the field like a very good horse only to find a few longshots too tough to pass on the run in. I think 143 is a very workable mark for this boy and if Willie wanted he could pick up a handicap like todays 4.55 for that 35k so running him here he surely gives him half a chance of picking up the extra 24k for winning this.

4.55
An absolute minefield and Mullins topweight Lagostovegas catches the eye straight away but topweight for a mare in a field like this i think will be too tough.
I’ve backed 2 against the field.
Ben Dundee won earlier in the season around Punchestown like a horse with 2 stone in hand off a mark of 120, ran 2 ok races afterwards before running rather disappointingly his 2 most recent runs. He travelled well for a long way in the county but looked like he didn’t pick up in the swamp. Apparently going very nicely at home and has a tongue tie added today, hoping Davy rides him mid-div rather than out the back as we know he stays a bit further.
Ivanovic Gorbatov is my other, “is this guy joking?” i hear you ask!? I certainly am not, he’s been hating the ground all winter and finally gets half decent conditions today, is down to a workable mark and trainer has taken out another potentially well handicapped horse from the race as he knows this boy will go close
I just hope the rain we have further down the country doesn’t make it up that far until after the race

6.40
Monalee far and away the best of these i suspect and 5/2 seems a very good price. I’m nearly getting concerned it’s too good of a price
If i can get a market without him and Dounikos is still a silly price i think he could be worth a little punt, plenty more to come from him than what we’ve seen.

[Fran the man]

I’d be careful making assumptions on the Flogas just yet, i remember similar comments being applied to a Novice chase at Leopardstown(might’ve been the same race) prior to the festival a few years back where 1 length separated 4 horses, Boston Bob,Texas Jack, Lord Windermere and Lyreen legend.
Texas Jack went to the JLT i think and ran no race but in the RSA Boston Bob fell when leading at the last, Lord Windermere won the race and Lyreen Legend was second

[Fran the man]

Anyone know if Zubayr is an intended runner?

Has dropped to a nice mark of 135 and seems to show his best in spring. Has only ran once at Cheltenham, in the Triumph in 2016 when racing keenly and out wide and finishing near last so a slight worry he’s been kept away from there since, or could it be coincidental?

He ran well off 138 to finish 2nd in the Scottish Champion hurdle last spring and in the Swinton off 142 he was a creditable 5th. He’s had 2 hurdle runs since one of which had an inexperienced rider on and he’s managed to get dropped 7lb to his lowest ever mark.

Meanwhile he’s been active on the all weather and after winning his maiden and afforded a mark of 83 has progressed to a mark of 90. He’s still only 6 and i think it’s fair to suspect he won’t be rated 135 come the seasons end

[Fran the man]

Ben i think you’ve De name escapes me in mind. Was with Liz lalor, scooted in in a bumper before Mc Manus purchased him for big bucks and sent him to Noel Meade, won a couple of hurdle races as a Novice and Meade fancied him for one of the big handicaps last year(could’ve actually been yesterdays Betfair hurdle) but he’s been a bit of a flop, he’s ridiculously well treated at this stage if they can get him right because seems to have badly lost his way .

[Fran the man]

Firstly, apologies for stealing your horse VTC hadn’t copped it .
Secondly, good to hear it, i like to see you thinking along the same lines

Now just to hope Smith doesn’t go too mad because i think there’s an outside chance the Irish national could be on the agenda too despite the massive step up in trip

[Fran the man]

De Plotting shed has a rather apt name i think.
His Irish mark over hurdles reached a peak of 152 but is 150 now, looks built to be a chaser and has jumped very well this season but hasn’t got his head in front.
His first run over fences was over 2mile 6f which is probably about his right trip with 2mile 4f to 2mile 6f seeming to be his best hurdles runs(though he could prob be effective anywhere from 2mile 4 to 3mile+ looking at his runs).
He finished 2nd to Presenting Percy that day by 3 lengths and i’d say it was used as a run to see if he’d go graded route or handicapping and after getting beat by PP they decided on the latter, he really caught my eye that day with his professionalism in his jumping and i said i’d keep an eye on him, when i seen he was dropped to 2mile 3f on his next run, then 2mile 1f and most recently 2mile it confirmed my suspicions

Each of these runs was far from devoid of promise and he’s obtained a mark of 143 which could be very lenient. If he doesn’t get hammered too badly he could be a big player in something like the Brown Advisory Plate.
Big worry is Mr. Smith and co read the Presenting Percy form literally and give him a mark at 150 or so and with Mr Elliott’s name beside the horse it’s not an impossibility.

[Fran the man]

Seems unfair but rest assured Phil Smith will add a few more lb too.

[Fran the man]

Triumph Espoir D’allen win 25/1

[Fran the man]

Arkle: Brain power 16/1 win Betfair
RSA: Sutton Place 20/1 win Betfair

[Fran the man]

Supreme: Mengli Khan e/w 20/1 Boyles
Ballymore: Paloma Blue e/w 33/1 PP

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