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Champion Hurdle – Hurricane Fly
Ryanair – Al FerofI have 10s on average about Al Ferof and he’s still a fair price at 4s.
Recent form is gonna be pretty irrelevant at this year’s Festival given the contrast between the ground we will likely have next week and the ground we’ve had virtually all winter. So you’re gonna want horses proven on decent ground and ideally horses who have good Festival form. Al Ferof ticks both those boxes. His poor run at Kempton is easily ignored. Hated the track.
And you also have to look at the opposition. One of the main reasons Hurricane Fly is worth opposing is the strength of the opposition. That really isn’t the case with Al ferof. Dynaste has run below form at the last two Festivals and although I respect Benefficient he’s not top class.
The more you look through the form everything points to Royal Irish Hussar. Ignore the run at Donny lto; was having his third run inside six weeks and never travelled.
Even if you ignore Doncaster Fox Norton still holds him on their run at Market Rasen.
He emust be opposed now. Trifolium looks the best jumper in the field and seems to have improved with every race this season.
The point about Diamond Harry taking this race instead of the Hennessy worries me too. Now he is down to a mark of just 150, surely you’d think connections would eye the more valuable and prestigious race if they thought Diamond Harry was still up to defying this sort of rating. I don’t mean that to be disparaging to the Badger Ales Trophy, by the way.
You could have made a similar argument about Fon Non Stop before the Old Roan.
The horse is 5/1 and wouldn’t beat Frankel with a furlong of a start unless the ground opens up and swallows him.
If the ground is soft I think Cirrus Des Aigles can beat Frankel. The gelding is one of the most underrated horses in training. Frankel apart he is the best in training at the moment. Let’s not forget last year he started at longer odds than Dubai Prince and was only a couple of points shorter than Green Destiny.
this looks a poor arc to me. I can’t see this orfevre winning. maybe i’m biased because it’s good one of the worst names i’ve ever come across (can you recall an arc winner with such a terrible name?
) but that prix foy win didn’t look that impressive to me in any case. besides has a japanese horse ever won an arc? and they’ve had stronger contenders before, like deep impact.d
Was Peintre Celebre impressive in his Arc trial?
Next year maybe. AOB has never won the race with a 3yo and never will because they only think of the race in September. If he can’t beat a Group 2 animal like Encke how the hell does he handle a TRIPLE CROWN WINNER in Orfevre?
Ladbrokes are so shrewd they have a horse at 5/2 who is running in the Leger. They haven’t got a fcuking clue. I hate this myth that if they are going big about something it has no chance. They’re just accountants.
Orfevre runs in the Prix Foy. This should put him spot on for the big day.
Sadly, the winner is not in the Poll.
Great Heavens. Will love the trip and as long as the ground has cut in it I think she will see off this bunch of mediocre colts.
Totally agree (although I do think Camelot is far from mediocre).
He’s 12/1 with good reason.
I’d want 12s on Sanctuaire actually competing the course. Much too exuberant a jumper for Cheltenham.
connections know that one way of getting ‘Sprinter’ beat is to take him on and he is about the only horse who can gallop faster and jump as cleanly as ‘your fellow
Al Ferof tried taking on SS in the Arkle. As soon as Geraghty got the winner upsides the grey **** the bed.
This is one race that I do like to have an ante-post interest and looking at the betting there is one horse that stands out to me – Flemenstar 12/1.
He’s being trained for the 2013 Gold Cup and what he has achieved so far is very promising. Yes, the Irish haven’t won this race since War of Attrition’s victory in 2006 but come March 2013, I feel that this is one horse that will be a lot shorter than the 12/1 quoted.
I’m with you. He seems the best jumper out of the main contenders and I love the fact that he won on good ground last time out. The sire suggests he has every chance of staying as well. His form in Ireland is better than SDC but he’s five points longer. Yes please.
Camelot may not have beaten much but all he can do is beat them effortlessly, which he did.
The reason Camelot is so short in the betting for the guineas is because of all the well connected stable money, which suggests hes held in some regard.The exact same thing could have been written about One Cool Cat and SNA. He’s short because the bookies know that an AOB shortie for a classic is the same as the England football team before a major football tourney – mug punters will back them no matter what the price.
The same comments were made about St Nick before his Guineas. Given Camelot’s pedigree, the nagging doubt that Aidan has hard trained him with the race in mind (he regrets doing so with St Nick) and his price, he must be taken on. French Fifteen and Abtaal look like solid Group animals who are overpriced because they are trained overseas. Maybe one wont turn up but at tasty double figure prices I’m taking that chance.
Certainly looks a better race to get stuck into than this year’s renewal. Missed the initial 20s but have got 16s about Spirit Son. Not too bothered about the season off as I don’t think it was anything serious and of course the trainer has previous with getting fragile animals to win a Champion Hurdle.
I’d sooner have Captain Chris and Al Ferof. Grands Crus is the sort of flashy grey who will be overbet for virtually any race he runs in. He has little proper chasing form in the book.
) but that prix foy win didn’t look that impressive to me in any case. besides has a japanese horse ever won an arc? and they’ve had stronger contenders before, like deep impact.