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I am surprised there has not been more made of this race, it looks a fantastic renewal this season
Diamond Harry 11-12
Tamarinbleu 11-11
West End Rocker 11-8
Zarrafakt 11-4
Golden Chieftain 11-4
Michel Le Bon 11-2
The Package 11-1
Triangular 10-12
Mic´s Delight 10-7
No Loose Change 10-3
Aimigayle 10-2
Ballyallia Man 10-0
Life Of A Luso 10-0Diamond Harry was a bitter disappointment last year but has the ability to walk this, best fresh as is well known and I was hoping he would go straight to the Hennessy rather than come here, it will be the first time he tackles a right handed track and I have reservations about him going this way round, it won’t take much for his jumping to come apart, I’ll be leaving him in the sin-bin for now.
Zarrafakt was my idea of a bet for this earlier in the week at first look and he should have an excellent chance. Another to go well first up with a record of 1,1,1,2 and his run in the JLT Chase at Cheltenham should be excused. He was very impressive prior to that when winning over this course and distance and I believe he may well still be on the up. Emma Lavelle is best early season and this fella thrives about now so he deservedly sits at the top end of the market. I made him 11/2 my favourite for this so will pass up but he would be my idea of the winner.
Golden Chieftan is in great form but I think this will be tougher for him and I can not have The Package. He was absolutely laid out for the JLT at Cheltenham. West End Rocker I’m sure will have other targets in mind and Michel Le Bon has always been a talking horse, can’t jump for toffee and is over rated.
I would not be surprised to see the old boy Tamarinbleu run a big race, he has never run a bad race on his seasonal turn out, his record reads 1,1,2,6,1,2,2,2 with the 6th being the paddy power 10 lengths behind Exotic Dancer. he is 12 now and is increasingly difficult but the record speaks for itself! The majority of those races are in graded company also so it is not as if he comes back to poor races.
All in all I like Zarrafakt and would be my number 1 play. If Diamond Harry returns to the track at his best nothing will be able to beat him and as a long shot Tamarinableu may ruffle some feathers!
The point about Diamond Harry taking this race instead of the Hennessy worries me too. Now he is down to a mark of just 150, surely you’d think connections would eye the more valuable and prestigious race if they thought Diamond Harry was still up to defying this sort of rating. I don’t mean that to be disparaging to the Badger Ales Trophy, by the way.
I am a big Aimigayle fan. She is well-handicapped again, goes well fresh and has her goodish ground. I’ll have some of her at 20/1.
Plenty of dangers in there though. I particularly fear The Package, Golden Chieftain and Mic’s Delight.
The point about Diamond Harry taking this race instead of the Hennessy worries me too. Now he is down to a mark of just 150, surely you’d think connections would eye the more valuable and prestigious race if they thought Diamond Harry was still up to defying this sort of rating. I don’t mean that to be disparaging to the Badger Ales Trophy, by the way.
You could have made a similar argument about Fon Non Stop before the Old Roan.
For Non Stop is quite a different case though. For one thing, he is a young horse who could easily cope with running twice within a few weeks. He could run in The Old Roan and Paddy Power. Diamond Harry often struggles to run more than once within the same year!
Zarrafakt for me.
Lightly raced, c/d winner and goes well fresh.
Could start fav. though!
DIAMOND HARRY to outclass them. i know he could of gone for Hennessey but they won that race already so while that a bigger race for them he can still win tomorrow.
Golden Chieftan surely has scope for improvement and with course and distance winning form, albeit in an egg and spoon race, he is my pick at 13/2 with Skybet. I’ll be surprised if he starts that big, with some of the field well exposed and near the top of the hill if not quite over it yet.
"And it’s Golden Chieftan tanking along….."
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Really fancied Tullamore Dew for this all week, but always had a trump card in my back pocket in the form of Aimigayle. Ran a blinder in the Topham when coming fourth, is towards the bottom of the weights and will have no troubles with the trip.
Put some singles on her and put her in a Lucky 15 with Overturn, Zarkandar and Aegean Dawn.
I understand Diamond Harry is better in the Autumn and has a classy history, but he has top weight on this day as opposed to the 10 stone he had when taking the Hennessy. There just seems to be more below him who are better off.
Can’t have Michel Le Bon. None of his form stands out to me and seems to prefer going left handed. Thats how i see it and am prepared to be proven wrong.
Diamond Harry would walk this
if
at his best. Same sentence would apply it been the Hennessey, previous winner and worth a lot more. So why go for this race? Can’t be a pipe-opener as we know he’s best fresh. So unless there’s a lot of money for him (shortens significantly) the answer must surely be connections believe DH is NOT as good and are going for the "easier" option. It doesn’t mean he won’t win, but to think he’ll run to the Hennessey form is foolhardy. There’s also a distinct possibility the right-handed course won’t suit him and sometimes goes wrong mid-race. So the chances of running a good race are slim.
Zarrafakt
(is it named after a certain Princess?). Best fresh, tends to jump better first time out and stable in cracking form. Is off a higher mark than when last successful and that win came under a 10lb claimer (not so here). But may have more improvement in him too. Trip, ground and course all in his favour.
Agree with Steve,
Golden Chieften
is one that could go close with stable going great guns. Put in an excellent run last time out over shorter and should be equally as effective at this trip as long as it isn’t too soft.
Another I like is
Ballyallia Man
, seems to give the impression there’s more left to come and if he stays could show improved form in this valuable handicap.
The Package has chances on form and runs well fresh, but Cheltenham races have been his target in most years. Is too short now.
Michel Le Bon is another with good chances on the book, but I’d want a bigger price. Disappointed in biggish fields over fences and well fancied for the Hennessey (was it last year?) when running poorly. Obviously has issues with soundness as is lightly raced; but that said could yet improve.
I’ve taken 5/1 Zarrafakt, 7/1 Golden Chieften and 12/1 Ballyalia Man. Around 7/4 combined price.
Value Is EverythingI am gutted that Aimigayle didn’t run as this might have been her best winning opportunity for years.
The signals for Diamond Harry proved correct, though. He did not look like a happy horse at all.
Well done to The Package and anyone who backed him.
Very disappointed with Golden Chieftan, he showed as much resilience as a wet Smartie tube after travelling prominently for much of the race. A bit peed off that The Package won, as I had a thickish bet on him at Cheltenham when he could only manage fourth place. That’s gambling though!!
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Really fancied Tullamore Dew for this all week, but always had a trump card in my back pocket in the form of Aimigayle. Ran a blinder in the Topham when coming fourth, is towards the bottom of the weights and will have no troubles with the trip.
Put some singles on her and put her in a Lucky 15 with Overturn, Zarkandar and Aegean Dawn.
I understand Diamond Harry is better in the Autumn and has a classy history, but he has top weight on this day as opposed to the 10 stone he had when taking the Hennessy. There just seems to be more below him who are better off.
Can’t have Michel Le Bon. None of his form stands out to me and seems to prefer going left handed. Thats how i see it and am prepared to be proven wrong.
MLB ran a fine race in second, wouldn’t give up on this one yet, trainer still very fond of him (although King is still adamant that Lidar will be a superstar and look how that is turning out!).
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