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Champagne Fever not declared for Navan. Don’t think there’s anything else for him, so it looks like straight to Cheltenham. Hardly an ideal preparation so he’s going to be way underpriced based on chasing evidence. I think it’s a case of fingers and everything else crossed for us Ante-Post backers that Mullins knows he’s got an exceptional horse on his hands.
Champagne Fever not declared for Navan. Don’t think there’s anything else for him, so it looks like straight to Cheltenham. Hardly an ideal preparation so he’s going to be way underpriced based on chasing evidence. I think it’s a case of fingers and everything else crossed for us Ante-Post backers that Mullins knows he’s got an exceptional horse on his hands.
I’d say Navan will be very heavy so little surprise he’s going straight to Cheltenham (presumably).
Will be running against some pretty strong trends if he goes straight there.
Wasn’t first or second last time out.
Only two winners since 1976 not had a prep run that calendar year.
Only one of last ten winners hadn’t finished in first two all completed starts.As a holder of an ante post voucher on Champagne Fever I hope he can buck the trends. What gives me hope is that he seems to throw in a bad one ( beaten at 4/5 on 26/12 /11 before winning the bumper and beaten at 1/4 on 6/01/13 before winning the supreme). Hopefully CF will be spot on again for Cheltenham and they’ll not see which way he went
He emust be opposed now. Trifolium looks the best jumper in the field and seems to have improved with every race this season.
If Champagne Fever turns up in the form of last year he looks the probable winner but he has run a stinker on more than one occasion and if he does run another stinker I think the winner will come from Valdez or Dodging Bullets as they are both progressing well and have a good attitude to racing and of the two I favour Valdez, I just love the way he goes about his business.
No doubt valdez has a good attitude.Did well to win hos last race!.Aren’t you a bit concerned about his jumping?.If he jumps how he did last time surely that could be his undoing in a arkle?.
Going to be some race and i think you need a jockey at the top of his game. Ruby isn’t the same jockey over fences as he was a few years ago – i’m convinced of that – and although Thornton has a couple of Arkles in his bag, he’s another with questions to answer in races like this. In my opinion, the best around at present for races like this are Geraghty and Cooper. Fehilly also at the height of his talents.
If Champagne Fever lines up then he’ll make the running but a strong pace will play into the hands of other horses. This isn’t the Supreme and CF is a year older. I think he needs further already and Walsh thinks he’s a Gold Cup horse in the making. Similar breeding to a horse called Away We Go ( same sire, a Roselier mare ) and that horse finished second in an Irish National.
6 or 7 behind CF in the betting have a very good chance of winning and all would benefit from a strong pace.
My idea off the winner off the arkle is Trifolium,jumped like a stag last time and powered clear winning a good race in ireland…He has improved from race to race.Should be spot on come the festival and has course form in the book 3rd behind in a supreme novices when behind cinders and ashers and darlan.
Going to be some race and i think you need a jockey at the top of his game. Ruby isn’t the same jockey over fences as he was a few years ago – i’m convinced of that – .
Walsh not ridden a festival winner since 2009 blah blah blah. Simply go through the rides he’s had and ask should they have won? Utter nonsense that folk keep trotting this stat out and the consensus is he’s not as good over fences as he was. Looked non too shabby aboard On his Own on saturday and one ride I recall that stood out being Wrong Turn for Tony Martin at Leopardstown recently. Also rode Ballycasey to perfection the other week.
Another horse that must go well is rock on ruby.Loves cheltenham can see him trying to burn them off from the front and i think his jumoing improved last time against mr.mole.His experiance over fences is a major worry though.
Going to be some race and i think you need a jockey at the top of his game. Ruby isn’t the same jockey over fences as he was a few years ago – i’m convinced of that – .
Walsh not ridden a festival winner since 2009 blah blah blah. Simply go through the rides he’s had and ask should they have won? Utter nonsense that folk keep trotting this stat out and the consensus is he’s not as good over fences as he was. Looked non too shabby aboard On his Own on saturday and one ride I recall that stood out being Wrong Turn for Tony Martin at Leopardstown recently. Also rode Ballycasey to perfection the other week.
a ) I never used the stat
b ) He’s still capable of very good rides.
Now stop diving in with both feet.
Willie Mullins telling the media that Champagne Fever has disappointed them prior to each festival win –
He’s won each start before previous festivals, one of them the Deloitte.
Two chase starts, the latter a fairly heavy defeat in a quick race at Leopardstown – and that’s the form he takes into a very hot Arkle.
No way should he be clear favourite.
Going to be some race and i think you need a jockey at the top of his game. Ruby isn’t the same jockey over fences as he was a few years ago – i’m convinced of that – .
Walsh not ridden a festival winner since 2009 blah blah blah. Simply go through the rides he’s had and ask should they have won? Utter nonsense that folk keep trotting this stat out and the consensus is he’s not as good over fences as he was. Looked non too shabby aboard On his Own on saturday and one ride I recall that stood out being Wrong Turn for Tony Martin at Leopardstown recently. Also rode Ballycasey to perfection the other week.
You can overlook the fact if you want to. Someone put the stats up on Betfair the other day and he has had 34 rides over fences in the last four years. They include 18 non-completions and only 2 places. Considering that most of the rides were not no-hopers that is pretty shocking in my book.
The competitive nature of Cheltenham is world’s away from bossing often very small fields on very well fancied horses on a regular basis in Ireland.
Champagne Fever and Ballycasey might win but his recent record would suggest having Walsh on board is no advantage at all.
Going to be some race and i think you need a jockey at the top of his game. Ruby isn’t the same jockey over fences as he was a few years ago – i’m convinced of that – .
Walsh not ridden a festival winner since 2009 blah blah blah. Simply go through the rides he’s had and ask should they have won? Utter nonsense that folk keep trotting this stat out and the consensus is he’s not as good over fences as he was. Looked non too shabby aboard On his Own on saturday and one ride I recall that stood out being Wrong Turn for Tony Martin at Leopardstown recently. Also rode Ballycasey to perfection the other week.
Champagne Fever and Ballycasey might win but his recent record would suggest having Walsh on board is no advantage at all.
apologies for para-phrasing but in an attempt to keep the thread readable:
and there, you hit the nail on the head perfectly.
It may not be an advantage (would you prefer Tom Scu ?) but it as absolutely NOT a disadvantage.
FWIW, I agree with Mark insomuch that he’s a very short price for a horse that has won one mickey mouse chase and made a howler in the other.
Anybody taking 3/1 is purely doing so on his bumper/hurdles form at the festival – which admittedly is pretty damn good.
Lee
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I still like Dodging Bullets for this, he has quite simply looked very good in his races this season whilst constantly improving.
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