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Haven’t been overly impressed by anything i’ve seen in the UK. Doding Bullets isn’t good enough, can’t have him. Grandoeut fell, but was struggling to beat Hinterland, who is a little exposed. Balder Succes has been impressive, but probably isn’t good enough. The best performance so far is IMO TDS beating Oscar Whisky. Jumps well, gallops well and the Arkle should suit ; fast pace race where stamina is required. The ground may be an issue, of course, we shall see.
I agree about TDS, a horse I really like, to be honest I just re-watched Dodging Bullets recent Cheltenham win and to me he looked pretty damn impressive and well worth the value in my eyes e/w at around 14/1.
Balder Succes is quite interesting to me. I think the number of rivals on the day will determine his chance. He has a history of falling and making mistakes in races with more than 8 runners, but tends to jump soundly with some space.
The Arkle has not attracted many runners in recent years. This has the feel of an open renewal and might buck the trend. Nevertheless, a single-figure turnout would be a major boost for the King horse.
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Yes Balder Succes another one who looks good but I fear you might be right about his need for a small field! Then again like you said the Arkle has had reasonably small fields recently so will be interesting to see if this is the case this year.
I’m going to go to the Tingle Creek meeting at Sandown to ensure I’ll be able to say "I saw the great one run" in 50 years time! Reason I mention this is because there’s also a 2m Grade 1 Novice Chase (that Captain Conan won last year) on the same card so I’m hoping some potential Arkle horses will be out – especially Dodging Bullets. If he looks as good in his next race (whenever it is) as he did in his last race he’ll be my Arkle horse I think.
Then again what if TDS looks even better in his next outing…..maybe have to back them both e/w!
Champagne Fever is far to short at 3/1 for me, still 3 months away a lot could happen between now and then, especially with Mullins.
While he only beat one horse today with the other falling, I thought
Rock on Ruby
looked good the minor error aside, I’ve always thought he may well be a better horse over fences. I’ve took the 16s available on the Former Champion Hurdler, will be a lot shorter on the day.
The other one I’d rate is the quirky but talented
Mr Mole
he could possibly be going at Ascot on Friday, a win their and his odds could start to crumble.
Delighted with Defy Logic today. To stay on as powerfully as he did after going a helluva clip down the back with Champagne Fever was very impressive. I thought Russell had timed his run on Trifolium to perfection but he couldn’t get to him. Defy Logic has a serious engine and must now surely be aimed at the Arkle. The ground was yielding today so the likely good to soft on Arkle day will be no problem after that.
I wouldn’t judge Champagne Fever too harshly on that run. He’s been known to thrown in the odd stinker in the past and bounce back.
Good call early on Defy Logic, THM. That had the makings of a terrific race today, with both leaders matching each other jump for jump in a fine round for two such inexperienced horses – at least until 4 out when DF made his only error. He looks well capable of winning an Arkle, although I see his trainer said that ideally, he’d want deeper ground than that.
I thought it an over reaction to push Champagne Fever out to 5s. That was an awful blunder – he straddled the fence, and horse and jockey did very well to stay together. Ruby was never going to be hard on him after that. His jump at the last suggests his confidence wasn’t affected. He’ll learn from that error, and otherwise looked a complete natural at the jumping.
I don’t think it was particularly a case of Walsh giving the horse an easy time. I think the horse gave up before the jockey.
The most interesting aspect of the race for me was Walsh’s reluctance to take a lead off Defy Logic. Presumably, he felt that he needed to keep him ‘interested’. He has never registered a victory from behind and I think those who have supported him for the Arkle have to hope he is going to make all. He might do that but he showed a vulnerability yesterday which all his rivals should have noted and the bookmakers were justified in shunting him out. Add in that the winner himself sports headgear for a reason and was at best ‘scruffy’ at several obstacles and it can only be marked down as a pretty disappointing performance.
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Dodging Bullets races at Kempton today, he’d be my Arkle choice.
Turn of the year is always the time for me to look for a life-changing ante-post Festival treble. My self-imposed rules are:
Try to ensure the horse is very likely to turn up in that race
Pick the over-priced ones who might not be that obvious but have a fair chance of getting in the first three and could just win
Looking at The Arkle, I settled on Valdez at 20s with Ladbrokes.2 from 2 over fences, he’s dotted up in both, albeit the favourite fell at Newbury. He can jump slickly and accurately although seems to lose concentration at times and goes right.
For what it’s worth, the other two I put in were Jezki at 8s for CH and Beneficcient at 10s for Ryanair.
Good luck to me and to you!
Turn of the year is always the time for me to look for a life-changing ante-post Festival treble. My self-imposed rules are:
Try to ensure the horse is very likely to turn up in that race
Pick the over-priced ones who might not be that obvious but have a fair chance of getting in the first three and could just win
Looking at The Arkle, I settled on Valdez at 20s with Ladbrokes.2 from 2 over fences, he’s dotted up in both, albeit the favourite fell at Newbury. He can jump slickly and accurately although seems to lose concentration at times and goes right.
For what it’s worth, the other two I put in were Jezki at 8s for CH and Beneficcient at 10s for Ryanair.
Good luck to me and to you!
I do the same bet. Horses that are overpriced or offer what i consider exceptional each way value. I had a good one a couple of years ago when Henderson’s lad won the £1m but he’d chosen the right race for Simonsig. I’d opted for the Supreme.
Valdez has looked exceptional for a novice but has jumped right on a few occasions. Likes the course though.
I’ve planned the whole weekend around studying Cheltenham due to the foul weather.
Turn of the year is always the time for me to look for a life-changing ante-post Festival treble. My self-imposed rules are:
Try to ensure the horse is very likely to turn up in that race
Pick the over-priced ones who might not be that obvious but have a fair chance of getting in the first three and could just win
Looking at The Arkle, I settled on Valdez at 20s with Ladbrokes.2 from 2 over fences, he’s dotted up in both, albeit the favourite fell at Newbury. He can jump slickly and accurately although seems to lose concentration at times and goes right.
For what it’s worth, the other two I put in were Jezki at 8s for CH and Beneficcient at 10s for Ryanair.
Good luck to me and to you!
Valdez would be an unusual profile of Arkle winner but impressive lto admittedly. Felix Yonger is the best 2 mile novice chaser I’ve seen this year and I’d be shocked if they go the Jewson route with him. He’s my bet of the festival at the moment; I’m on at 14s and I’ll get on again if confirmed for the race.
Both he and Defy Logic have clocked serious times this year, and on soft ground. They’ve both been as fast as sprinter sacre winning the Cc last year. Defy logic travels like a machine but FY is a far slicker jumper. He came up the hill impressively in Cheltenham last year so no issue there.
Totally agree that now is a nice time for an ante post accie. I’d add ‘misleading heavy ground performance’ to your list of criteria. I did a treble yesterday;
– The liquidator 14/1 supreme novices
– Felix yonger 10/1 Arkle
– Benefficient 10/1 RyanairTurn of the year is always the time for me to look for a life-changing ante-post Festival treble. My self-imposed rules are:
Try to ensure the horse is very likely to turn up in that race
Pick the over-priced ones who might not be that obvious but have a fair chance of getting in the first three and could just win
Looking at The Arkle, I settled on Valdez at 20s with Ladbrokes.2 from 2 over fences, he’s dotted up in both, albeit the favourite fell at Newbury. He can jump slickly and accurately although seems to lose concentration at times and goes right.
For what it’s worth, the other two I put in were Jezki at 8s for CH and Beneficcient at 10s for Ryanair.
Good luck to me and to you!
Valdez would be an unusual profile of Arkle winner but impressive lto admittedly. Felix Yonger is the best 2 mile novice chaser I’ve seen this year and I’d be shocked if they go the Jewson route with him. He’s my bet of the festival at the moment; I’m on at 14s and I’ll get on again if confirmed for the race.
Both he and Defy Logic have clocked serious times this year, and on soft ground. They’ve both been as fast as sprinter sacre winning the Cc last year. Defy logic travels like a machine but FY is a far slicker jumper. He came up the hill impressively in Cheltenham last year so no issue there.
Totally agree that now is a nice time for an ante post accie. I’d add ‘misleading heavy ground performance’ to your list of criteria. I did a treble yesterday;
– The liquidator 14/1 supreme novices
– Felix yonger 10/1 Arkle
– Benefficient 10/1 RyanairWell when FY ran on soft he was beaten and i’m not sure how you’re comparing their times with Sprinter Sacre.
Defy Logic is interesting. He’s been campaigned mostly on right handed tracks and performed well but his best performances have come going the other way. Within three lengths of Annie Power over hurdles then a 19 length thrashing of Golanbrook over fences then the G1 at Leopardstown over Christmas.
Has to be on the shortlist for this.
Looking at The Arkle, I settled on Valdez at 20s with Ladbrokes.2 from 2 over fences, he’s dotted up in both, albeit the favourite fell at Newbury. He can jump slickly and accurately although seems to lose concentration at times and goes right.
Ginger put up Valdez on his Daily Lays & Plays several weeks ago when he was a standout 25/1. I also took that price. Hopefully, missing Kempton will prove to be something of a blessing in disguise. Presumably, it will be one more run and then the Arkle. In that same thread I also raised the question mark about Champagne Fever being taken on for the lead and that theory has already been at least partially vindicated. Mullins is now seemingly as uncertain as ever about targets (at least to the general public) but I still suspect he will take the Arkle route.
I took the 16/1 Benefficient for the Ryanair but unfortunately he is the most high profile partnership likely to be jeopardised by Cooper’s tie up with Gigginstown.
Turn of the year is always the time for me to look for a life-changing ante-post Festival treble. My self-imposed rules are:
Try to ensure the horse is very likely to turn up in that race
Pick the over-priced ones who might not be that obvious but have a fair chance of getting in the first three and could just win
Looking at The Arkle, I settled on Valdez at 20s with Ladbrokes.2 from 2 over fences, he’s dotted up in both, albeit the favourite fell at Newbury. He can jump slickly and accurately although seems to lose concentration at times and goes right.
For what it’s worth, the other two I put in were Jezki at 8s for CH and Beneficcient at 10s for Ryanair.
Good luck to me and to you!
Valdez would be an unusual profile of Arkle winner but impressive lto admittedly. Felix Yonger is the best 2 mile novice chaser I’ve seen this year and I’d be shocked if they go the Jewson route with him. He’s my bet of the festival at the moment; I’m on at 14s and I’ll get on again if confirmed for the race.
Both he and Defy Logic have clocked serious times this year, and on soft ground. They’ve both been as fast as sprinter sacre winning the Cc last year. Defy logic travels like a machine but FY is a far slicker jumper. He came up the hill impressively in Cheltenham last year so no issue there.
Totally agree that now is a nice time for an ante post accie. I’d add ‘misleading heavy ground performance’ to your list of criteria. I did a treble yesterday;
– The liquidator 14/1 supreme novices
– Felix yonger 10/1 Arkle
– Benefficient 10/1 RyanairWell when FY ran on soft he was beaten and i’m not sure how you’re comparing their times with Sprinter Sacre.
Defy Logic is interesting. He’s been campaigned mostly on right handed tracks and performed well but his best performances have come going the other way. Within three lengths of Annie Power over hurdles then a 19 length thrashing of Golanbrook over fences then the G1 at Leopardstown over Christmas.
Has to be on the shortlist for this.
FY was beaten at Xmas on soft/ heavy, and a longer trip than preferred 2m3. I understand the vagaries of time comparisons but my point was that FY (and defy logic for that matter) have clocked serious times on slow ground and FY will certainly relish the probable good ground of Cheltenham in March.
For what it’s worth nick mordin has made a huge call for FY for the Arkle in today’s Irish Field… He’s shocked at the price he’s currently at…
I’m still with Grandouet for this. Admittedly he has looked disappointing so far, but he ran well enough I thought second time up against Hinterland. Settled better and jumped ok. It seems Henderson is trying to school him quite extensively in public to get some match practice into him.
Apparently against Dodging Bullets he ran a stone below his run against Hinterland, so wasn’t his true running for whatever reason. But at 20/1 now, a stronger pace and perhaps better ground conditions, he is the one that can canter at chanpionship pace, and if his jumping holds out, must surely make the first three in the arkle.
Only an opinion obviously, but with that in mind, here’s my ante post trixie…Grandouet – 20/1 – Arkle – will canter at championship pace…
Oscar Whisky – 9/1 Jewson – class horse over hurdles at this distance, another who will go better with a faster pace.
Silviniaco Conti – 7/2 – Gold Cup – Hardly inspiring at the prices now, but already took 10/1 in various other ante post bets….was still tanking along last year, Nicholls had him spot on for the King George and will do for March….with another 2f only Bobs Worth will live with him.My three main bets for the meeting…
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