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Disappointed and a little surprised at how this has cut up. Worryingly, for anyone who has opposed him it looks to me that there is a distinct possibility that Champagne Fever is going to get that vital ‘easy’ lead. If they want to win at least one of the other jocks has got to make sure he doesn’t. Gigginstown should have run Arnaud in this to do that very job – could be a big mistake.
Arnaud is too good to be sending out as a lamb, Stilvi.
This looks like one of the best Arkles for a long time, maybe even better than some Champion Hurdle fields of recent years (looking at you Katchit and Hors La Loi III!)
Forgetting Brick Red, Ted Veale and Western Warhorse, the other six are solid contenders.
I think
Trifolium
is the most natural fencer in the field. He makes a beautiful shape and truly attacks, but his old quirks seem to remain. He finishes very weakly and will have his willingness tested by Champagne Fever and co. Not for me.
Dodging Bullets
is also quite fluent and his slightly left-handed jumping won’t be a problem here. He has fallen apart at this time in previous seasons, so that is a concern. I thought his run behind Module was not at all bad given the way Paul Nicholls prepares his horses for Cheltenham, but do disagree with his excuse that the ground wasn’t suitable. The horse has handled it before. So long as he doesn’t lose his mind again, Dodging Bullets is a strong player.
Grandouet
looks like a shadow of his former self. The front-running tactics weren’t ideal last time, but he keeps getting caught for pace by horses that he would have laughed at in his prime over hurdles. Hinterland had his measure at Sandown on both meetings, which doesn’t say much for his Arkle prospects. Pass.
Rock On Ruby
would be hard to stop if he could reprise either of the last two Champion Hurdle efforts. It seemed like a bad sign when Harry Fry sent him chasing, though – with degeneration of the horse’s breathing problems being one of the main concerns. I don’t think a horse can win a hot race like this while being held together with glue, but at least the quicker ground will help his cause there. I know his two chasing runs were not too much to go on, but Rock On Ruby hardly looks like a natural chaser, either. He slows into plenty of his fences and seems more comfortable with shortening-up than standing-off. Perhaps that had something to do with the choke-hold Noel Fehily had him under, but these little negatives add up. I’ll look elsewhere.
Champagne Fever
is a very brave horse in many respects. His Champion Bumper and Supreme wins were done in heroic style. His jumping of fences fits with his character, as he likes to stand off and attack. He got one wrong over Christmas just as the pace was quickening and paid for it with defeat, but I don’t think you can judge him on that alone. He has a great record at Cheltenham and the right racing style to expose the jumping and attitude issues of these. The downside is that he might be the type to sulk when he doesn’t get a lead on his own. Before he won his Champion Bumper, he got beaten after tracking the leader. You could also wonder whether it was just a bad time to make a mistake behind Defy Logic, or whether he downed tools once headed. Lily-livered Trifolium pinching second suggests the latter.
I absolutely adore
Valdez
, who left the unfulfilled promise of his hurdling career way behind by going unbeaten over fences in three starts. He jumps very neatly and travels with power. Obviously, he has never faced a field like this and took some time to wear down the solid Arnaud, but the style of his finishing effort looked good with the Cheltenham hill in mind. Thornton probably let Arnaud steal a march on him that day, but wound up looking like a genius when that horse fell in a hole. ‘Choc’ is probably a handicap to his chance nowadays, but at least the pair seem to get on well. Big contender imo.
So, that cuts it down to Champagne Fever, Valdez and Dodging Bullets.
Dodging Bullets has spent his career falling just short of the best, so that counts against him in a very good Arkle. Between the other two, the note of positivity on Champagne Fever from Willie Mullins is "erm, well he disappointed us before the last Festival and won". He did have an infection to explain that one away, though.
That leaves me with Valdez, I suppose. He does have a strange profile for an Arkle winner, but so did Alan King’s Voy Por Ustedes.
1st
Valdez
2nd
Dodging Bullets
3rd
Champagne Fever
Arnaud is too good to be sending out as a lamb, Stilvi.
In what way? He isn’t good enough to win an Arkle and if they go Grand Annual he is going to find himself part of a monumental burn-up. It will need something near to a miracle to boss that race from the front. Leaving him out here probably means Gigginstown doesn’t win either race and at the same time seriously aids the chances of Champagne Fever.
This looks like one of the best Arkles for a long time…
Let’s hope it’s a cracker !!
The 23 previous winners were all priced 11/1 or shorter with 13 of the last 14 winners having a Hurdles rating of 142 or higher. This is the main reason why I am picking Rock On Ruby as he has a great Hurdles record and knows Cheltenham well.
Good luck with your bets.
Can’t argue with that sum up The Young Fella.
I would say that Trifolium will be there, but as you say, his finish will probably leave him with just a place.
I also agree about Valdez and think the ground drying up is to his benefit.
Hurricane fly is obviously the class horse, but 3 runs over fences, he’s only won one against a poor field, excuses or not, he didn’t win like he should and that’s a worry enough for me to stay well clear. The same with Rock on Ruby really, inexperienced, two gentle paced practices over fences and I also don’t think he’s the horse he was, has the quality to prove me wrong though.
I personally don’t think Dodging bullets is good enough, period.
So Valdez and Trifolium for me, but the ground and shorter odds are making Trifolium less attractive by the minute.
Nice summary, as ever, TYF.
I’ve backed Valdez and Champ Fever but have no strong fancy.
Champagne Fever’s Supreme was won going down the far side last year when Ruby gave him a lovely breather for quite some way before quickening again. If he’s allowed that luxury again, I think he’ll win. If he’s harried constantly, they could find a way to beat him.
For all Valdez has thrown some lovely jumps. I have a horrible feeling that one of these fences at this pace will catch him out. I hope I’m wrong.
Good luck
Trying to put my logical head on for once, I think Module is way overpriced for the QM, so I have to bet Dodging Bullets here as well, I suppose!
Rock On Ruby had class but does he still possess enough of it? Champion Hurdle winners don’t usually end up in the Arkle. I can’t have him for that reason alone. Champagne Fever has festival form and I think he’ll make that pay dividends today.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Grandouet
was my first antepost bet of the season (9/1) and, after an untimely blunder on his chasing bow at Sandown, I backed him again (12/1).
He was as a top class hurdler who, ability-wise, I put on a par with Rock On Ruby. Grandouet was still travelling strongly when coming down last year in the Champion Hurdle, so it’s hard to know exactly how good he was.
There was nothing wrong with his effort in the Henry VIII, finding only Hinterland too good on the day, with Taquin De Seuil and Balder Success behind.
His jumping is often over-exhuberant, but I have no qualms in that department and I think it will prove more economical granted a faster pace. He has been crying out for a truly run race and his cruising speed will be an asset in this contest.
Of the Irish contingent, there was a lot to like about Trifolium’s success in the Arkle at Leopardstown. He had a host of good horses behind him that day, and this classy individual looks the right type for this race – he jumps well and stays well.
Trifolium
is no stranger to Prestbury Park after a fine third in the Supreme Novices’ two years ago.
I seem in good company with a few on here in fancying Champagne fever. Everything that could be said about him has been said, but I think this is tailor made for him, he loves Cheltenham.
Did anyone back the Warhorse?
Stuck a fiver on him…..then berated myself for mug punting and layed him at the same price.
SHL
I’m embarrassed to admit that I have a fiver ew at 40s with VC (Even missed the 50s!!!).I only did it as a pal of mine said they did something similar with Well Chief before that won at Cheltenham. I later found out that my mate didn’t actually back it!!!!
That’s the first 3 winners I’ve had and I think its safe to say I have never done that before!!!!!
I’m embarrassed to admit that I have a fiver ew at 40s with VC (Even missed the 50s!!!).I only did it as a pal of mine said they did something similar with Well Chief before that won at Cheltenham. I later found out that my mate didn’t actually back it!!!!
That’s the first 3 winners I’ve had and I think its safe to say I have never done that before!!!!!
Well done, Jenno – a winner’s a winner!
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