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2000 guineas 2012

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  • #19770
    darren83
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    • Total Posts 5932

    I think BORN TO SEA will win 2000 guineas i had some of the 50/1 Hills offered shocked at price in 1st place.A very taking debut will stay a 1m and i think he confirm that form next time out.

    Though was keen on Harbour Watch not to sure now if he be a good 3yo
    While is form is top class something inside me.

    Top Offer a impressive maiden winner

    Power looks like being AOB no1 horse but i think in the end Apollo will turn out to be the best 3yo miler for AOB

    So i think BORN TO SEA will win what are your thoughts.

    #372906
    captainmarvel
    Participant
    • Total Posts 11

    I too have backed Born to Sea at 50’s with Hills & 40’s with Corals.However,concerned to see his entries on Racing Post website now include the Irish 2,000 Guineas & the Irish Derby.
    Not bothered about the trip I know he’ll get the mile next year & like all Urban Sea’s improve with age.

    #373047
    Eclipse First
    Member
    • Total Posts 1571

    Given that Born to Sea has suffered from sore shins there must be every doubt that John Oxx would aim him at Newmarket where the chances of good fast ground are greater than the Curragh. As it stands its probably 20/1 they would look at HQ so 50/1 isn’t so attractive.

    Also Invincible Spirit has yet to sire a horse in this hemisphere to excel over a mile.

    #373354
    AdmiralofthefleetAdmiralofthefleet
    Member
    • Total Posts 451

    Cape Cross had not sired a decent colt until STS, which showed the influence of his imperious dam Urban Sea. He is three parts brother as Invincible SPirit and Cape Cross are both by Green Desert, hence the physical resemblance.

    My fingers will be crossed for him to emulate his brother!

    #373593
    captainmarvel
    Participant
    • Total Posts 11

    Given that Born to Sea has suffered from sore shins there must be every doubt that John Oxx would aim him at Newmarket where the chances of good fast ground are greater than the Curragh. As it stands its probably 20/1 they would look at HQ so 50/1 isn’t so attractive.

    Also Invincible Spirit has yet to sire a horse in this hemisphere to excel over a mile.

    Invincible Spirit has sired Allied Powers,a group winner over 12f & Lawman who won the French Derby over 11f.
    I can see why the Tsui family paired Urban Sea with Invincible Spirit.IS gets good quality fast 2yo’s who can improve with age.Urban Sea progeny improve with age.Speed on the sire side,stamina on the dam’s isnt that the saying?
    Oxx stated BTS was going to run again in a Group 3 in Ireland in October,no entries as yet,but if he did line up at HQ next May without a further run,would you be in a hurry to lay him? Having witnessed him romping away with a Listed race at the 1st time of asking his trainer must takeall the praise.
    With the passing away of Urban Sea I hope that BTS turns out to be a fitting legacy for the Tsui family.

    #373604
    andyod
    Member
    • Total Posts 4012

    The Ballydoyle fillie Wading who won yesterday so impressively is a grand daughter of Urban Sea.Her dam Cherry Hinton ran five times but never won.

    #373644
    Eclipse First
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    • Total Posts 1571

    Given that Born to Sea has suffered from sore shins there must be every doubt that John Oxx would aim him at Newmarket where the chances of good fast ground are greater than the Curragh. As it stands its probably 20/1 they would look at HQ so 50/1 isn’t so attractive.

    Also Invincible Spirit has yet to sire a horse in this hemisphere to excel over a mile.

    Invincible Spirit has sired Allied Powers,a group winner over 12f & Lawman who won the French Derby over 11f.
    I can see why the Tsui family paired Urban Sea with Invincible Spirit.IS gets good quality fast 2yo’s who can improve with age.Urban Sea progeny improve with age.Speed on the sire side,stamina on the dam’s isnt that the saying?
    Oxx stated BTS was going to run again in a Group 3 in Ireland in October,no entries as yet,but if he did line up at HQ next May without a further run,would you be in a hurry to lay him? Having witnessed him romping away with a Listed race at the 1st time of asking his trainer must takeall the praise.
    With the passing away of Urban Sea I hope that BTS turns out to be a fitting legacy for the Tsui family.

    If Born to Sea turned up at Newmarket without setting foot on the racetrack between times, he would have to warrant the utmost respect. For that to happen I strongly suspect the ground would have to be on the easy side of good, which given the excellent drainage at HQ and the time of year it is less than likely. Hence my reasoning that his ante-post price has factored in the strong possibility that his sore shins this year would make connexions reluctant to risk him. As a listed winner he has already done enough to earn a place at stud, should he never race again. Given that Sea the Stars was 9/1 on Guineas day, I would be prepared to oppose his once raced half-brother on the day if he was a shorter price than that and would think as 12/1 or bigger he might be worth a speculative punt.
    Of course much depends on how the horse develops during the winter, but as a rule Invincible Spirit’s progeny have not shown their best form early in their 3yo careers.

    #373665
    andyod
    Member
    • Total Posts 4012

    Forgetting Noble what’s his name? I never even heard of him.Half or full brother?

    #396691
    Eclipse First
    Member
    • Total Posts 1571

    Bump

    #396696
    threenapsthreenaps
    Participant
    • Total Posts 303

    Ha so there is a thread, sorry :lol:

    So my choices at present based on my own analysis of breeding and what they acheived as 2 year olds are:

    Akeed Mofeed
    French Fifteen
    Camelot

    #396702
    Eclipse First
    Member
    • Total Posts 1571

    No apologies required, chances are there may be more threads from last year too!

    Whatever you fancy, an ability to act on top of the ground seems to be a strong likelihood.

    #397421
    JJMSportsJJMSports
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2036

    With regards to Camelot, Montjeu has yet to sire a Group 1 winning three year old over a mile.

    #397603
    andyod
    Member
    • Total Posts 4012

    This may sound odd but;the longer he goes without getting a group one miler the more likely he is to get one.

    #397606
    threenapsthreenaps
    Participant
    • Total Posts 303

    Camelot has a lot of speed stallions influence on his damsire side which might make a difference.

    The rumour mill is obviously at work this weekend, Top Offer has been well backed from 14’s to 8’s, where has that come from?

    The trainer has issued a statement of caution, and how many 3 year old colts that are offspring of Dansili have won 8f Group 1’s in England? How often does a colt that has only won a maiden as a 2 year old won the 2000 Guineas?

    Today, Most Improved has been backed in, what has prompted that?

    #397620
    Eclipse First
    Member
    • Total Posts 1571

    Doyoun, Mark of Esteem, Golan, Makfi won a maiden and then were put away as 2yo.
    Entrepreneur and Island Sands never contested a pattern race as a 2yo.

    Unexposed horses have a reasonable record in the 2000 Guineas accounting for 25% of winners in 24 years.

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