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Has to be Annie Power all day long for the World Hurdle. She could be the next best thing since Sprinter Sacre, but really, what justifies her price at the head of the market for the world hurdle?
Surely, the horse that has won it four times and going for a fifth should head the market? I laugh when people make these grade 1 races two horse affairs. Look at the betting. If it’s just a race between BB and AP, how come the rest of the field aren’t at least 10/1 chances? It’s a grade 1 with grade 1 horses, and it really wouldn’t surprise me if neither of the big two won the race. But at the prices, Annie Power is the absolute lay of the meeting. Apart from Zarkandar.. (who will be a different proposition on faster ground) what has she beat? If Doyly Carte beats Quevega on day 1, I could be eating my words!!For many years the World Hurdle was a one horse race Harvey, not two. But do punters really think it’s a two horse race? Might be fairer to call it a three horse race, Annie Vs BB Vs The Field. Annie is best price 15/8 (34.8%) minus bookmakers mark up = say 33.3% a fair 2/1. Big Buck’s is 5/2 (28.6%) minus mark up = say 26.7% a fair 11/4. So 33.3 + 26.7 = 60%, therefore the market/punters/bookmakers are making The Field favourite, a fair 40% 6/4 shot (100 – 60 = 40).
The point about Big Buck’s is not what he’s done in previous World Hurdles, it’s what he did in the Cleeve. Last time he won the World Hurdle BB was 9 years old. At that age most horses are at their peak. At 11 years old most horses are on the downgrade. So it is unlikely Big Buck’s was ever going to run to his best. Then came the Cleeve; had he been beaten by only At Fishers Cross it with the other form behind working out – it would have been fair enough. But he was beaten by Knockara Beau. I know this particular 11 year old had an op, so let’s say Knockara Beau went against his age group and returned to his very best. That would still means BB has a lot to find between Cleeve and World to get back to his very best.
Although Annie’s form is a little difficult to tie down, as you say Harvey, won in small fields against one horse. Am not fully convinced myself she is value for the 8 lengths beating of Zark. But Zark did go on to be a creditable half length 2nd to Champion Contender Melodic Rendezvous. Even if only value for 5 lengths BB will need to be somewhere near his best to give her 7 lbs; and will he be anywhere near his best? Although there is talk of Annie not proven at the trip, evidence of how well she finishes off races suggests could even improve for the step up. Doesn’t seem to lack stamina. Am on at 3/1 but would not back her now below 2/1.
Agree, there are many with a chance of beating them both. IMO If More Of That is ok (differing reports to his wellbeing) he looks the value to me. Improving fast when last seen and the increased test of stamina should suit.
Value Is EverythingChampion Hurdle – Hurricane Fly
Ryanair – Al FerofI have 10s on average about Al Ferof and he’s still a fair price at 4s.
Recent form is gonna be pretty irrelevant at this year’s Festival given the contrast between the ground we will likely have next week and the ground we’ve had virtually all winter. So you’re gonna want horses proven on decent ground and ideally horses who have good Festival form. Al Ferof ticks both those boxes. His poor run at Kempton is easily ignored. Hated the track.
And you also have to look at the opposition. One of the main reasons Hurricane Fly is worth opposing is the strength of the opposition. That really isn’t the case with Al ferof. Dynaste has run below form at the last two Festivals and although I respect Benefficient he’s not top class.
Stilvi still trying to make the Kings Palace form appear worse than it is, i see.
KP wins Oct 4th – 2nd wins next two races, since placed in Graded company. 3rd ( 16 lengths back ) wins next time out.
KP wins Oct 19th – 2nd ( 18 lengths back ) wins Grade 2 next time. Since flopped on unsuitable ground.
KP wins Dec 14th – 2nd ( 14 lengths back ) finishes 2nd again in a Grade 2 trial, beating the subsequent Betfair Hurdle winner who also has form with the Supreme Hurdle favourite.
" Increasingly dubious " form is utter nonsense. Every horse he’s beaten into second – and hammered them – has franked / confirmed the form.
The New One – certainly has a chance, but is surely too short. How on earth is he favourite?
The New One – certainly has a chance, but is surely too short. How on earth is he favourite?
By putting up a performance almost as good as Hurricane Fly PC, in a race that should not have suited him (slowly run 2 miles around a speed track like Kempton). Has form at 2m5f and should be able to improve on a stiff course like Cheltenham, even more so if pace is good. ie Why? Answer: Potential to improve past The Fly…
Trouble is there does not appear much pace in the race now.
IMO Bookmakers have it right, with TNO and HF joint favs. Doesn’t look any value in the market at all now.
Value Is EverythingThe New One – certainly has a chance, but is surely too short. How on earth is he favourite?
By putting up a performance almost as good as Hurricane Fly PC, in a race that should not have suited him (slowly run 2 miles around a speed track like Kempton). Has form at 2m5f and should be able to improve on a stiff course like Cheltenham, even more so if pace is good. ie Why? Answer: Potential to improve past The Fly…
Trouble is there does not appear much pace in the race now.
IMO Bookmakers have it right, with TNO and HF joint favs. Doesn’t look any value in the market at all now.
Potential isn’t proof of the pudding though is it? Certainly holds a chance, but favourite? Beaten fair and square this season, and his Neptune form doesn’t read overly well. Who is to say a crawl around Kempton ideally suited MTOY?
He might well do a Hardy Eustace and follow up, but Hardy was 33’s not 5/2 jolly. To my eye Our Connor has shown more tangible signs of improvement this season than TNO.
Joint "favourite" PC. Potential isn’t "proof", but it has all got to be taken in to account. When a young horse puts up a rating only just (and I mean just) behind that of the Champion and has potential to improve given better circumstances than when putting up that rating… then the chances are he will improve enough to at least be as good as the Champion. Indeed, if there wasn’t a possibility of Hurricane Fly now "just doing enough" these days, I’d be making TNO clear favourite.
Why don’t you think the form of the Neptune worked out?
Rule The World was beaten easily by 4 lengths and has developed in to a leading World Hurde candidate, as low as 7/1 to beat two outstanding staying hurdlers. 3rd hasn’t run since last year and fourth sadly no longer with us. If you want to go further back (I don’t think it is worth it/means much myself but)… 5th Minsk doesn’t seem to have taken to fences. However 6th Taquin De Seuil certainly has, beaten once and beat Oscar Whisky both by under 1 length; yet beaten 17 lengths by TNO. Ubak finished 7th of 8, beaten over 25 lengths, came straight out and won the Mersey Novices at Aintree by 16."Beaten fair and square", did make a bad mistake at the last but may be so. However, as said it was not in ideal circumstances. My Tent Or Yours is a speed horse PC. Yes, there might be a chance he’ll improve, but we are talking likelihood/price here. ie What rating does the punter think each horse is capable of running to given the circumstances. Cheltenham probably won’t suit MTOY as much as it does the stamina horse TNO.
TNO might have been "beaten" but unlike Hardy Eustace after his Sun Alliance has proven his speed by putting up an excellent performance rating at 2 miles, a speedy 2 miles at that. Hardy Eustace rejuvenated by first time headgear showed speed he’d never shown before (including as a novice) hence the 33/1 SP. So not a good comparisson.
Whether Our Conor has improved is certainly debateable PC. I guess that’s why we are doing it.
If you think the form distances are reliable and that Hurricane Fly ran to his best rating – then yes you could be right. But to do that (for me) Captain Cee Bee is far too close. Has the 13 year old miraculously returned to his very best? It’s a difficult race to weigh up, I myself haven’t given OC a better rating for Leopardstown than Cheltenham, but deffo with potential improvement with a truly run race/more aggressive ride like he got in the Triumph. IMO there isn’t much between the top four.Value Is EverythingOn The Fringe
This race has been unfathomably kind to me over the years – not least last year when I posted well in advance how Salsify was the bet of the meeting @ 9/1 and the result was never in doubt for a second
Anyhow, this year there are a number of unknown quantities and if OTF carried any other colours but green and gold his price would be at least twice as big.
Could make a case for quite a few against him, mainly Harbour Court and I’ll be backing the latter rather than laying OTF.
He was elevated to false favourite IMO due to the absence of Mossey Joe & Salsify, plus the likely withdrawal of Tammy’s Hill – who wouldn’t win in these conditions anyhow.
Lee
Reckon you’d make overall profit laying all of these individually:
Irving
Big Bucks
Hurricane Fly
Kings Palace
Champagne Fever
BallycaseyI do lay horses but I like to lay horses around 9 or 10s that I think should be way longer. Thats not whats required here but here are the favs I would try and get if that were my game.
Irving….5/2 seems all wrong for me given that better horses than him have failed previously. I like the way he is winning but Im not so impressed by the form lines.
Kings Palace… Soft ground run away winner last time but I think he will be a sitting duck for the likes of Briar Hill. I know somebody here mentioned laying the Mullins horse but I have been ultra impressed by him.
Smad Place….This horse got himself placed in the stayers so he obviously runs well at the festival. However with Mendip Express bombing out last day, leaving this horse with only one meaningful challenger in Sam Winner, I can only see him winning a poor RSA which hopfully this wont be.
SHL
For me, at today’s prices and expected going it would be a choice between:
Dodging Bullits – Arkle
Ballycasey – RSA
Taquin De Seuil – JLT
Al Ferof – RyanairBallycasey @ around 5/1 at the time was a LAY.
8/1 now is too big, backed it to win.Value Is EverythingI am going against Annie Power, Al Ferof, Silvianaco Conti and Calipto.
I think Annie Power is short enough. Sure she is unbeaten but she has not contested many competitive races and is trying a new trip.
Al Ferof is one whom I have never been as excited about as some pundits so he’s one I have always gone against.
Nicholls has had a less than stellar week so it’s time to oppose Silvianaco Conti as I think he benefited from Cue Card folding up dramatically last time and that won’t be the case against Bobs Worth et al. The trainer says all he does is stay and that may not be a good situation on much faster ground now.
Calipto seems short enough at 7/2 fav in places for the Triumph Hurdle. I would see him as a drifter given stable companion Irving’s poor effort in the Supreme, where he was also a lay for me.
Right boys, that’s your five star banker yankee sorted now knowing my luck!
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I am going against Annie Power, Al Ferof, Silvianaco Conti and Calipto.
I think
Annie Power
is short enough. Sure she is unbeaten but she has not contested many competitive races and is trying a new trip.
Al Ferof
is one whom I have never been as excited about as some pundits so he’s one I have always gone against.
Nicholls has had a less than stellar week so it’s time to oppose
Silvianaco Conti
as I think he benefited from Cue Card folding up dramatically last time and that won’t be the case against Bobs Worth et al. The trainer says all he does is stay and that may not be a good situation on much faster ground now.
Calipto
seems short enough at 7/2 fav in places for the Triumph Hurdle. I would see him as a drifter given stable companion Irving’s poor effort in the Supreme, where he was also a lay for me.
Right boys, that’s your five star banker yankee sorted now knowing my luck!
Kerching!! 4/4 and easy money!!
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Rule The World was beaten easily by 4 lengths and has developed in to a leading World Hurde candidate, as low as 7/1 to beat two outstanding staying hurdlers. 3rd hasn’t run since last year and fourth sadly no longer with us. If you want to go further back (I don’t think it is worth it/means much myself but)… 5th Minsk doesn’t seem to have taken to fences. However 6th Taquin De Seuil certainly has, beaten once and beat Oscar Whisky both by under 1 length; yet beaten 17 lengths by TNO. Ubak finished 7th of 8, beaten over 25 lengths, came straight out and won the Mersey Novices at Aintree by 16.
If you think the form distances are reliable and that Hurricane Fly ran to his best rating – then yes you could be right. But to do that (for me) Captain Cee Bee is far too close. Has the 13 year old miraculously returned to his very best? It’s a difficult race to weigh up, I myself haven’t given OC a better rating for Leopardstown than Cheltenham, but deffo with potential improvement with a truly run race/more aggressive ride like he got in the Triumph. IMO there isn’t much between the top four.
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