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rip into any ‘hype horse’ do you esc??
barton beats TFF easy in first run of year and eyes up CH..hype horse yells esc no chance in the CH
valiramix beats TFF easy in first run of year and eyes up CH..of course says esc, he’ll easily win that cos pipe and someone he knows says he’s improved
hmmmm… :)
22/02/02 baracouda bts spendid 3L giving 8lbs having to be pushed out
03/11/01 boss doyle bts spendid 7L giving 8lbs cruising
so how was that the staying hurdle performance of the year jjimps
baracouda is good and consistent but gets outpaced and looks sketchy when leading. he’s not better than dsb was in his prime and that one got turned over at chelt
having said all that i dont much fancy bannow bay and jdc has annoyed me once too often now so i agree..he should win
i might just have a bit EW on boss doyle though cos he has run a couple of good races esp in england
not a lot esc, but some and given that LL is now the bigger price i’ll gladly take the chance he wont do it :)
i now have horrible visions of 4 runner fields where all the owners have laid there horses and they’re all trying to lose! come to think of it that chase mccoy won where most of them fell twice can now be seen in a new light :)
all his wins were impressive enough with the last being a fair way ahead in terms of figures.
he hasnt achieved the same figures this year yet but given a stiffer test ive no reason to see why he cant impreove again
hi esc,
re the rodock and tff form…hunters tweed has shown in handicaps this year that he should be rated about 118 hitman has shown he isnt at the level he was when finishing behind geos last season, as the group finish in the novice hurdle showed yesterday and and rating of ~120 would be much closer the mark…using these figures TFF now gets a mark of about 130 for that race..making it obvious why rodock was able to skip away. noe TFF also gets a mark of about 130 for the irish race based on joe cullen. <br>in the LL / TFF race simply gifted (shown to be about 130 in handicaps) finished 6L behind TFF showing e ran to 136 in that race and yes landing light wasnt that impressive on the day but i KNOW how good LL can be based on last years form and he needs a stronger gallop anyhow
so when we at last get to the val /TFF race i have no doubt hll ran below his best and sir talbot hasnt shown much of late so one has only got TFF to use as a guide. The above would suggest that he ran somewhere in the low 130s which means val hasnt necessarily improved at all from last year.
thats my view anyway..ORs can be very misleading as ive said before and i put solid big race handicap form above 4 runner conditions races anyday
right..im done :)
right then
1st off esc i think you left the form book behind some while back..LL was better then val last year and rodock has shown that slamming TFF is NOT CH form therefore your faith in val being better than LL this year is PURELY BASED ON HYPE which is not what i thought you were about
2) hll’s run really surprised me. as rob has finally discovered :) the CH where hll finished 2nd was far from top class and from where i sit his run on thursday was actually better then his run there…and before you all go saying that beating a handicapper blah blah blah it seems there is so much hypocrasy about what is and what is not required re handicaps to win the CH. brother joe was touted as a potential CH horse as was marble arch AND ll last yr ALL from lower OR’s than copeland. blue royal had an OR of only 149 when running close behing HLL so quite why 156 isnt enough to go very close or even win is illogical
if indeed it turns out that the thu race is as solid as it looks then i have a new regard for HLL. i now rank him above valiramix and somewhere close to LL and will be looking closely at prices on the day
4) finally it was nice to hear that m pipe was annoyed he hadnt entered copeland in the CH :) even he makes mistakes
there is one differnce…pipe and mccoy dominate by being very good at what they do..ballydoyle and godolphin dominate by being very rich
hi esc, for a start i dont think they entered copeland in the CH cos as i said i dont think they realised just how good he’s become..i mean it’s not like m pipe to shy away from multiple entries now is it!!
i’d be quite happy if valiramix has improved but until i get a definite NEW rating for him i cant bet on him..i’ll be backing LL on the day and if it so happens that Val has improved enough to beat him then fair enough..it should be a cracking race..i’ll still have got a decent price and had a good run for my money.. HOWEVER it wouldnt be the first time the pipe stable think a horse is better than it transpires to be..jus take magnus / stormez recently
out of interest why do you think they havent raced valiramix more than once this year??
it also seems copeland will be running next week sometime so that shoud be interesting :)
as to who i rank above hll,
i’m not sure of geos’ ground preference but on LAST years form he’s better than hll is at the moment. the only other one is barton and he won’t be running so yes hll could well run into a place but i’d be inclined to put any money anyone was thinking of having on him on whichever of LL or Val they think are better cos it’ll work out better value
rob, sorry..that sounded a bit harsh on reflection..i just meant to say I can’t see beyond LL and ?Valiramix BUT as you say sometihing else has at least got to place and i’m no wiser there
esc, when was the last time the pipe stable had a ‘touch’ that nobody knew about?? they withdrew valiramix cos he didnt have a chance of an inflated OR :)
i have spent many many hours looking at all the form and i KNOW how good they all are. i ignore races which are impossible to rate as they are ambigous at best. i dont think ned kelly is anywhere near good enough to win the CH which is why i give the other french furze races so little credence…if you want further evidence then i seem to remember barton slamming TFF on his comeback over 2m before finishing BEHIND landing light and others..in fact he finished just behind valiramix which would suggest that valiramix did no more this year than in that race
hll really isnt the horse he was when coming 2nd to isty (which wasnt that good a performance anyway) and i personally cant see him placing this year
oh and just one last word on copeland :) landing light won that champ race at sandown off a mark of 146 at 12-1..copeland is now on 150something
(Edited by dario at 12:14 pm on Feb. 16, 2002)
im pretty sure cols right when he said the pipe stable were surprised by how good he is..if they were having a touch, esc, how come he drifted and mccoy sounded like he wanted to be on another horse??
i think all this talk of hll, bilboa etc is unnecessary.LL’s beat them all and will love the track / speed of race. istys gone so the only ? is whether valiriamix has improved..on the scant evidence available i’d rather be on landing light and he should be a nice price on the day as well
esc, valiramix last ran in a handicap all of 3 races ago..not long is it
he did indeed look very impressive when beating TFF but as remittance man said rodock looked EQUALLY as good and he showed against bilboa that he hasnt improved so i am choosing to ignore the 3 conditions races where TFF as finished 2nd this year as they can be no more than hypothesis
on last years form landing light was better than valiramix and given that copeland wont actually be running in the CH ( though i would still be interested to know if you can supplement a horse ) i’d be on landing light this year..isty is gonna suffer and i just hope it isnt too bad for the horses sake..if you believe the reports then he’ll have jumped approximately 10 hurdles since last year and that cant be healthy
as maurice said the tote handicap form is rock solid and way better than either of the 2 main protagonists achieved in handicaps
i watched the tape again and it was interesting to see just how little chance mccoy thought he had and the way he drifted shows he wasnt exactly expected to win like that..it’s a shame they didnt interview mccoy AFTER the race as i think it would have been enlightening
whereas valiramixs last handicp run was so much better wasnt it esc?!?!
i have NO problems with the fact valiramix MIGHT have improved this year.. i thought it too at first but given that his ONLY race is hard to assess ( and i dont see how you could possibly try and base it on hors la loi who hasnt exactly been the model of consistency in the past couple of years as the RP wrote "This should have been run to suit Hors La Loi III, but he failed dismally to confirm the promise he had shown against Baracouda at Ascot and remains one to have reservations about") i remain to be convinced
the relative slowness of the race is a concern but not conclusive and the ease with which he won goes some way to negating that anyway
gus,
he managed to win the stayers while not being a natural hurdler..his raw ability got him home that day and if it comes to it then it will again
167
some simple facts :
1) valiramix got soundly beat off a mark of 143 in a handciap last year. yet just 2 runs later he is supposed to have improved enough to warrant a mark of 167!!
2) make a stand won less impressively off a mark of 140 before running away with with the CH on his VERY NEXT RUN
3) landing light won the race last year off a mark of just 133 beating rooster booster 3L getting 1lb and yet was fancied for the CH had it gone ahead and was rated 162 after just 2 more runs
4) copeland won off 142 very easily beating rooster booster 6L GIVING HIM 17LBs!!!! In pure figures that run was 21lbs BETTER than landing lights run in the race last year
is it really implausible to suggest this horse isnt up to CH form in his next 1 or 2 races given the above facts??
i really dont see what people have against this horse and if he was in the CH and i was assured impartiallity of the connections i really couldnt see him losing <br>
copeland can’t possibly be on 142 AFTER sat’s race!! you mean to say he hasnt gone up at all for that win?? must be a good thing for future handicaps then!!
im pretty sure the PR dbase only shows the OR’s they had going into races and not what they’ll be for future ones unless im missing something
you say its not champion hurdle form yet as i said it was probably a better run than CHAMPION HURDLER make a stands win in the race and it was at least a stone better than landing light’s win last year and that was enough to make him fancied had the CH taken place.
you have a misplaced divine faith in the official raters esc cos that was one of the most impressive 2m hurdle handicap wins ive seen and it would have been enough to hammer valiramix this time last year..it remains to be seen if that was has improved in just 2 runs but i’d have copeland off levels at the moment
i seem to remember marlborough cantering all over go ballistic but only just scaped home. in fact every time he’s come up against decent horses in recent times hes been beat despite travelling well. sure he travels well but he’s just not that good
my point about his jumping is that he’s good enough to win DESPITE jumping right..if they sort that out the rest won’t even see him come march
