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Nickolson
Uttoxeter 3.00
14/1 generalNickolson went into the notebook after splitting Ribble Valley and Molly Ollys Wishes in an intermediate hurdle at Carlisle in October. He looks the type to progress onto chasing next term but I think he might have a handicap in him before the season is out, and the form of that race in Carlisle would suggest a mark of 133 is very workable. He had a break after disappointing on heavy ground in a class 1 listed race at Sandown and a run in a jumpers bumper should have put him spot on for this. The step up in trip will also play to his strengths. I’m sure he has been overlooked in the market.
Twitter - @danny_TLDR
I definitely missed the the memo on Gentleman De Mee. Looks incredibly short here.
Twitter - @danny_TLDR
Any thoughts on what the ground might be? I’d be tempted to take a flyer with Callet Mad At 33s. We never really got to find out if he’s the horse of 2 years ago when he unshipped halfway through the Beecher. There’s no obvious reason to believe he isn’t, and he brings proper staying chase form to the table.
Twitter - @danny_TLDR
Allaho is now Timeform’s highest-rated jumper following his runaway win in the Ryanair Chase at Cheltenham.
Thought that was such an impressive display. I can’t remember being so thrilled by a horse i haven’t backed since.. well, Honeysuckle. After all the moaning it’s been some festival!
Twitter - @danny_TLDR
Thanks VtC. Wasn’t to be unfortunately. Horse looks completely disinterested. Try and try again as they say…
Rowland Ward
Fakenham 4.05
8/1 (B365)Another with the angle being a return to drying ground, Rowland Ward was lightly raced on the flat for Ralph Beckett and achieved an OR of 83 in that sphere. He beat Thyme White (OR 140) on only his second attempt over hurdles, then was squeezed out on his next start in the G2 Triumph trial at Cheltenham. Travelling well and flattering to deceive has become somewhat of a trademark for this horse, but runs behind Wild Max and Edwardstone this season have offered enough encouragement to suggest he’s worth one more try in this class. The stronger pace here will suit, and a tweak of the wind could also help with his finishing effort.
Twitter - @danny_TLDR
They’ve been telling us all winter Beacon Edge needs soft ground. Fury Road has that magic AB form from last season and Elliott has proven again there is no one better at getting one ready for March!
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Worth mentioning the Sporting Life podcast. Good place to hear Delargy’s thoughts without having to skip through Kennedy. Although sometimes you end up with C. Lysaught. Swings and roundabouts.
Twitter - @danny_TLDR
Quite liked the angle of Old Course form here as opposed to GA form and Bun Doran definitely fits the bill at an e/w price. Good luck everyone.
Twitter - @danny_TLDR
Indeed. Will be keeping an eye on him in the GA today. They’re talking him up as if he’s AP!
Twitter - @danny_TLDR
I really like this angle and you’ve made some interesting points Darren.
I want to be with Dusart in the Arkle and My Drogo in the Marsh at this early stage but after looking again this morning i think Concertista at 40s for the Champion Hurdle is a bet. Peter Molony has been suggesting this morning Honeysuckle will go chasing and Willie will have any number of mares to tackle the mares’ hurdle. James Du Berlais is set to go novice chasing for the same connections. Saldier and Saint Roi haven’t lived up to expectations and i expect Concertista to be Willie’s CH horse. Her jumping is so slick and quick and she is better over 2m. We all know how deadly these mares are getting 7lb!
Twitter - @danny_TLDR
I really like this angle. With Elliott we could already plot his maiden open company season from Down Royal onwards but now it’s back to the drawing board.
Twitter - @danny_TLDR
Vintage Clouds a timely reminder of how important that can be, particularly in a weak(?) renewal. And Cobden for Maxwell must be one of the greatest jockey upgrades in Festival history.
Twitter - @danny_TLDR
Agree with a few here, Dysart Diamond looks a ripping e/w bet at 25s. She did everything wrong at Leopardstown on Boxing Day and still won cosily. Her jumping improved the quicker they went. Valuable experience of big field handicaps. I was hoping Townend would take the ride but i’d imagine the decision was more politically based than form driven.
Twitter - @danny_TLDR
I spent a bit of time with this race yesterday as the market seemed a little undercooked. Backed Mount Ida at 14s on the basis she is likely to go off favourite?
Also figured Crievehill and Sizing At Midnight were both overpriced at 33s. Crievehill ran a big race here 2 years ago (good to soft) to finish 4th and is back down to the same mark after spending the year running on unsuitable ground.
Sizing At Midnight was in the process of running a big race when coming down in the Badger Beers and then never went a yard in heavy ground on the next day. He looks tantalisingly handicapped now the ground has come in his favour.I’d expect Crievehill in particular to drift further on the day.
Twitter - @danny_TLDR
